Even Ecstasy Pills Need a Good Shakeout
2007/1/24 15:40:48
Let me say a few casual words today. Everyone who comes here should know about this announcement:
"
Announcement Regarding Abandoning You All for Two Days
2006-12-19 21:45:00
"
Excluding the New Year's holiday, it's been exactly one month — 21 trading days, a magical number — and it's doubled. At this point, even ecstasy pills need a good shakeout.
Particularly amusing — I just came on and saw someone write this:
2007-01-24 14:12:16
No need to say anything about today's "medicine" — everyone can see it. It's going to keep rising, I'd bet my life on it. Hehe.
Too bad I don't have money. If I did, I'd sell the kitchen sink to buy!
2007-01-24 14:59:52
Dear Hunchback classmate and fellow students:
I rushed up here in a panic to ask: how come our "medicine" opened up like that? I can't understand it...
Thank you!~~
It seems everyone still needs to study hard. The first thing to learn is mindset — when everyone feels there's no risk, a shakeout becomes necessary. The market — what can always be exploited is fear and greed. You must thoroughly cultivate yourself.
Recently this ID has been extremely busy, doing a major portfolio reshuffle, switching out some stocks from last year that had excessive gains and are now overvalued. This is old capital — not the same batch of money mentioned on December 19th. The oscillations during this period have been from continuous reshuffling — not just this ID doing this, many others are doing the same.
Actually, the direction of this ID's switches has been mentioned in replies. The main sectors this ID has recently switched into are: military-industrial, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, environmental protection, and public utilities. The first two sectors have been dormant for over half a year — it's time they moved. For the latter three: public utilities mainly involve some low P/E ratio stocks as defensive positions; agriculture and environmental protection are areas to be strongly supported going forward. This ID has been busy working on a big project recently that's related to both of these areas.
Of course, pharmaceuticals and steel have been positioned since last year — no need to elaborate.
The eight stocks previously mentioned are all fine for the medium term, and they've all risen somewhat from when they were first mentioned.
"Medicine" — no need to say more, it's still S-ing. The Zhejiang one, the Shandong one, the "Pipe," and "5-in-1" — nothing much to say about them. This year's three: the helicopter is slowly taking off, that big Shandong environmental cleanup is underway, and that "no gifts for New Year" thing — a bit messy intraday, but doing okay.
Military-industrial and non-ferrous metals were entered in the past one or two weeks — use your own technical analysis to find buy points. This ID only deals with aerospace-related military stocks, and only rare metals in non-ferrous.
All the above is just dream talk — everyone go wash up and sleep.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 15:46:31
This ID will sign out and back in to fix the formatting — the font is too small right now.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 15:54:43
[Anonymous] 新年好
2007-01-24 15:50:37
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán
2007-01-24 15:45:50
Sorry, the formatting kept breaking today, so it's late. Probably a Sina issue.
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Chán Jiě is truly a perfectionist. I think this looks fine already.
==
Getting the formatting right is a sign of respect to everyone, and to oneself.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 15:59:16
[Anonymous] 笨笨猪
2007-01-24 15:57:03
"The main sectors this ID has recently switched into are: military-industrial, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, environmental protection, and public utilities."
－－－－－－－－－－－ －－－－－－－－
May I ask: what about the energy sector?
==
Energy and automotive are both fine. The key is the technical trend of specific individual stocks — absolutely do not chase stocks at high prices.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 16:03:11
[Anonymous] 笨笨猪
2007-01-24 15:52:29
Why didn't the blogger comment on the market today?
On the 5-minute chart, divergence should have already occurred, and it's almost exactly the same as the previous 5-minute divergence.
===
It just came up from the zero axis — there's no divergence issue. Currently it's not a question of the 5-minute level, but of the 60-minute level. The greatest threat to the market is a potential divergence on the 60-minute chart. This must be closely monitored. Right now, to avoid 60-minute divergence, the market needs to rally sharply and quickly — otherwise, if it churns around here for a few days, there'll be trouble. Note: the 60-minute chart only has 4 bars per day, so there are still several days to observe.
The market's oscillatory retest should hold firm above 2870 — this is also very important.
Jiangsu Shuntian (600287)
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 16:05:00
[Anonymous] wjy885
2007-01-24 16:02:53
Chán Jiě, may I ask — 600287 doesn't show divergence on any timeframe, so how did it drop from 4.90 this morning all the way down to close at 4.57? Thank you, Chán Jiě!!!
===
Take a good look at the 5-minute chart — how is there no divergence?
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 16:10:00
[Anonymous] 罗锅
2007-01-24 16:08:25
Math Sister!!!!!!!!!!!! Give me the big red flower quickly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Look at my midday comment!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[Anonymous] 罗锅
2007-01-24 11:35:21
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán
2007-01-23 15:28:03
As for individual stocks, even old-sector stocks like military-industrial and non-ferrous metals are becoming active again, which simply shows that even with some short-term oscillation, the medium-term outlook for the market isn't a big problem.
BBBBBBBBBBBBBB
Math Sister!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I know you were hinting at military stocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I bought this morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Medicine is also bullish!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I want to be your male companion~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
==
Something this obvious doesn't need a big red flower — the key is whether you truly understand.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 16:13:41
[Anonymous] 学校新生
2007-01-24 16:07:17
Could any kind senior student tell me — among the 8 stocks previously mentioned, aside from the 5 from the "gift-wrapped dream" plus a Sichuan liquor, what are the other 2? Could someone tell me? Thank you!
==
The liquor doesn't count among these 8 — that's from old capital. Water-liquor still has medium-term potential since the acquisition isn't complete yet. But no need to chase the high. Same for the other 8 — they've all gone up, no need to chase. Find pullback buy points in the sectors this ID newly mentioned.
Also, finance is a long-term matter — this ID is holding for the long term. China's finance is the most core national security issue — this is the most important thing.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 16:19:32
[Anonymous] 大盘
2007-01-24 16:09:38
Seeking help understanding application and learning difficulties of hub theory
Through the blogger's several explanations, I feel the difficulty in determining hub formation is no longer in the concept itself, but in understanding and clearly analyzing that any one of the three segments constituting a hub must itself consist of at least three consecutive sub-level segments. For example, to determine a daily-level hub, there must first be at least three consecutive 30-minute trend types completed, and each of those 30-minute ones requires three segments on the 5-minute chart, and each 5-minute three segments requires at least three segments on the 1-minute chart to be completed — cycling through judgments like this, it feels really inconvenient in practice.
Does the blogger have any practical application tricks that can help us avoid having to judge layer by layer whether each segment is complete, and instead conveniently determine it from just one sub-level?
==
To look at daily charts, there's no need to go find 1-minute segments. Generally, three segments are very obvious on the daily chart, and if within each segment there are at least three or more overlapping daily K-bars, they're basically 30-minute trends. Only when looking at sub-level divergence and such do you need to examine sub-level charts.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 16:22:13
[Anonymous] 空读
2007-01-24 16:18:44
Chán Chán: After studying, I went to look at charts and found that for 000008, the former Yian Technology, at its major top of 126 yuan on February 17, 2000, neither the daily nor weekly charts show a first-type sell point to this day. Since it's been so long, I don't know if there's one on the 30-minute chart. For such a large-level adjustment, shouldn't a sell point appear on the daily chart?
===
Not necessarily. During the final stage of a rapid rally, a single 1-minute divergence can trigger a crash. So at different times, for different trends, the divergence level to watch also differs. This will be specifically discussed later.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 16:25:14
Sorry, have to go to Wangjing — that lousy place is a traffic nightmare. Need to leave right away. Will chat again tonight!
Goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 21:03:42
[Anonymous] abc
2007-01-24 20:40:18
Is the blogger's reshuffle still in index component stocks? Has the first stage of the bull market already ended?
==
Basically all component stocks, but they're second and third-tier component stocks.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 21:08:08
[Anonymous] 锅贴
2007-01-24 20:57:37
Blogger, could you please look at 600210? A third-type sell point just appeared, and now it looks like there might be 5-minute divergence. I think it looks like divergence — could you check? Thanks.
==
Third-type sell point? If using MACD to assist with divergence, the signal lines first need to pull back to the zero axis.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 21:12:27
[Anonymous] 沉醉
2007-01-24 18:58:04
Chán Zǐ Blogger,
May I ask,
Regarding divergence within a trend:
Shanghai Composite 15-minute K-line chart
From 1-18 13:00 to today's close:
There are three consecutive upward segments.
The second segment's red bars are already smaller than the first, but the MACD signal lines rose higher.
The third segment, from 1-23 13:30 to close,
compared to the second — the red bars have shrunk significantly, and the signal lines have dropped.
This implies a pullback is coming, but the magnitude of this pullback is hard to estimate.
What method can be used to measure the pullback magnitude?
==
Using MACD to judge divergence requires first a pullback of the signal lines to the zero axis. Without even that, at this level there's no divergence to speak of — for other levels, you need to check accordingly.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 21:13:55
[Anonymous] 勤学好问
2007-01-24 21:10:58
May I ask — if 60-minute divergence appears on the broader market, could this signal a relatively large and prolonged adjustment?
===
Not necessarily — often space can be traded for time, or vice versa.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 21:18:43
Attention everyone:
The best approach is to use technical analysis to pick stocks yourself — that's the real skill. The stocks this ID mentions are just for viewing. Do not act unless a clear pullback buy point appears.
Signing off first. Goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 21:20:48
[Anonymous] 楚天
2007-01-24 21:15:21
Was the move between 13.10 yesterday and 10.00 today on 600523 a divergence? Teacher Chán.
==
Before I leave, let me answer this: please first clarify the conditions for divergence, and also the level. Without a specific level, just saying "divergence" is meaningless.
Signed off. Goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/1/24 15:45:50
Sorry, the formatting kept breaking today, so it's late. Probably a Sina issue.