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Held Back from Billiards, Rushed Back to Write a Post

2008/7/1 22:56:39

Although this ID has no responsibility or commitment to any of you, after all these days, feelings have naturally developed. Honestly, this ID should be out playing billiards with friends right now. Thinking that it wouldn't be good to have no post today, I hurried back.

In the hospital, with nothing to do, the motivation to write was stronger. Now that I'm out, there are things to fiddle with everywhere. This ID has many hobbies. But this ID will try to keep writing posts, even though doing so takes quite a toll on this ID personally — but I'll accept that.

Probably many people are still concerned about the market's direction. Actually, the current market trend was clearly stated N weeks ago, and the market has been proceeding exactly as planned. If you don't understand, study the lessons more carefully, and you'll see what it means when a second hub is followed by a trend divergence — this is the most standard pattern. Right now, this most standard pattern is unfolding like a textbook case. Anyone who has read this ID's lessons should be familiar with this kind of orderly progression, so this ID really doesn't have much more to say.

Of course, from the most rigorous analytical perspective, the broader market could theoretically develop a third hub. But the prerequisite for this would be that the current orderly breakdown does not form a standard interval-nesting divergence — and this is something anyone who has read this ID's lessons should be able to judge in real time, presenting no operational difficulty whatsoever.

Here, I must point out in advance the minimum rebound magnitude after the theoretically confirmed final drop: according to this ID's theory, once this decline is ultimately completed, the guaranteed minimum rebound target from the 6124-point decline is necessarily above 2990 points. In other words, as long as the rebound returns above 2990 at the corresponding level, then further decline after that is theoretically permissible.

Note: since there are too many liberal-arts and science-type thinkers here who cannot distinguish between theoretical rigor and empirical experience, this ID must emphatically point out that beyond the theoretically guaranteed 2990-point target with 100% certainty, there is also an empirically derived magnitude — specifically, one-third of the entire decline. This is certainly not a 100% guaranteed figure, but in practice it has proven accurate more than 90% of the time. Therefore, this magnitude is a reference-level target. That is why this ID previously said this rebound can basically return above 3700 — but that was stated from an empirical perspective. From the standpoint of this ID's theoretical guarantee, one can only say 2990.

This ID's theory is geometric in nature, with 100% rigor. Therefore, the above distinction must be crystal clear; otherwise you have studied in vain. In actual operations, whether the rebound ends at 2990, 3700, or even higher is determined by the internal structure of the eventual rebound movement, while the hub angle corresponding to the previous hub constitutes a doubly independent angle of judgment. These two different angles form a dual-confirmation theoretical guarantee — like a system of simultaneous equations, the theoretically confirmed possible outcomes are extremely few or even unique.

For those who cannot fully understand this ID's theory or whose operational proficiency is lacking, this ID has already given two paths: the bench-sitting approach, or proactive buying-into-weakness while progressively lowering cost basis. This ID has stated multiple times the mid-term judgment on the broader market: the decline starting from around 3700 is the final leg down from 6124 (note: this is not theoretically guaranteed at 100%, because there could be a large third hub, but based on fundamentals and other judgments, this scenario can basically be ruled out — in the most rigorous theoretical language, this is a judgment with 99% confidence). Therefore, proactive buying-into-weakness has become very realistic after the internal structure of this final decline developed its second hub, especially for large capital — it is mandatory.

The only two risks with proactive buying now are: the decline from 6124 develops a third hub, or the current decline from around 3700 develops a third hub. In either scenario, the actual risk of proactive buying is essentially nil, because the buying is in batches, daily fluctuations provide ample room to lower costs, and more importantly, any third hub implies a rebound of corresponding magnitude, providing ample room to exit.

Therefore, this ID once again declares in the most explicit language: for those who have difficulty precisely applying this ID's theory, we have now entered the phase where proactive buying-into-weakness is mandatory. Especially for those with larger capital, you must begin entering in batches. Choose those that have fallen 80% from their highs with no fundamental deterioration. For example, this ID can explicitly tell you that when China Aluminum dropped below 12 yuan, this ID began replenishing shares previously sold around 60 yuan. Of course, this ID's chips are constantly being rotated to lower cost basis, but the method of operation is transparent. Similarly, with 600737 — everyone here knows this ID once held a serious position. When it fell from over 30 yuan back to below 15, of course this ID had no reason not to replenish.

Solemn declaration: the reason this ID is replenishing these particular stocks is simply because this ID is lazy and prefers to repeatedly trade stocks previously traded, as long as their fundamentals remain operable. There are many better stocks than China Aluminum and 600737 for you to discover on your own. There is no need to pile into this ID's picks — once everyone crowds in, the stock can't run high. That's inevitable.

Enough about stocks. Something as simple as stocks, wasting this ID's precious leisure time — that's practically a sin. This ID was cooped up in the hospital for so long; letting loose for a few days is perfectly natural. As for those who object to this ID going to nightclubs, as though someone who discusses the Analerta shouldn't visit nightclubs — that's a water-logged brain talking.

Great bodhisattvas manifest in different forms. Among chickens, ducks, geese, and rabbits, there are likewise great bodhisattvas practicing the bodhisattva path. Who told you there are no great bodhisattvas in nightclubs? Using petty discriminating mind to speculate on the boundless Buddhadharma — such people, just let them be. This ID can't be bothered.

If you can only go to heaven and cannot descend to hell, then don't talk about Buddhadharma. Without the cultivation of a tenth-bhumi bodhisattva, you can't even qualify as a Great Demon King. You can't even be a proper demon — and you want to become Buddha? Go polish a wall.