10-Day Moving Average Blocks as Expected

2007/10/24 15:14:14

Have to go meet a bunch of boring people from Hong Kong soon, so I can only say a couple things quickly.

Yesterday this ID clearly said to watch the 5 and 10-day moving averages. Today, the resistance from the 10-day moving average was obvious. However, since a 1-minute hub formed below this line today, the short-term trend depends on the third buy/sell point situation of this 1-minute hub. If a third buy point can appear, then it will once again assault the 6000-point mark.

If there's no particularly significant news in the short term, this rebound should continue — just a matter of whether it will be through sideways consolidation or continued upward thrusting. Since that fund unfreezing is coming up, with so much capital, it would be too disrespectful to everyone not to lure some of it in to stand guard. So, as long as there's no sudden news, the rebound should at least continue long enough to trick some of the unfreezing capital into becoming bagholders.

Nothing much to say about individual stocks — already told everyone about the China-prefix stocks. Of course, this type of action is most effective at grinding down bull morale: the index rises but there's no money-making effect. That's exactly what bears love to do.

If particularly significant news keeps not coming out, then with nothing better to do, the bears may not rule out another spectacular performance of pumping the index to force the news out.

For short-term technique, tomorrow just watch the oscillation of today's 1-minute hub. If a third sell point appears, then a second bottom test will be necessary.

Even if it's a rebound, it could still be the kind that launches after a second bottom test. So there are many possible types of rebounds to choose from right now, and the judging standard is the oscillation of this 1-minute hub.

Note: let me emphasize again — the eventual breakdown of the index must be accompanied by news. Without it, at most you get a box pattern, unless the box drags on for so long that everyone gets scared, which could then lead to a breakdown without news.

Sorry, I have to go. Signing off first, see you later.