Blocked by the 5-Day Moving Average; Bulls Still Need to Push Harder

2007/11/13 15:06:24

A few quick words.

Today the rebound was blocked at the 5-day moving average — this is the simplest possible scenario. According to this ID's theory, after a fractal forms, whether it can extend into a stroke depends critically on the 5-day MA. As long as it can't reclaim it, the bottom fractal faces the possibility of being negated. Of course, even if this bottom fractal is truly negated, a new one that can ultimately form a stroke will typically appear not far away. So the bulls still have short-term hope — it's just that the process may be somewhat disaster-prone. For example, the CPI news that leaked at midday today threw cold water on the morning's bulls.

But for more precise analysis, look at the intermediate-scale trend following yesterday's 1-minute bottom divergence. The course material happens to cover exactly this topic right now — this is a textbook real-time case study, so please study it carefully and analyze it thoroughly.

Yesterday I said the bulls would trample through different sectors like a boorish man from Lu searching for a path. During today's afternoon pullback, many sectors did not damage the rebound structure, so the bulls still have capital to keep pushing.

Short-term, continue watching the 5-day MA and the evolution of the intermediate-scale trend on the 1-minute chart. Those with weaker skills — keep sitting on your little stools, wait for clear skies before coming out to play.

I hear Beijing might get snow today. If so, that's too boring — this ID just left, are you really going to make me miss the first snow of 2007?

Please, let's skip the snow.

If I'm still lucid after drinking tonight, we'll meet again; otherwise, just let this ID go see the Duke of Zhou instead.

Apologies, signing off first.