Stay Away from All Those Who Charge Fees for Stock Tips!
2007/5/25 8:52:29
After breaking through Kong Nanren's 1/3 line last week, the traffic on this ID's blog hit record highs repeatedly, nearly 6-7 times the usual 6,000-7,000 views. After this wave of market action, this ID's blog has moved up a major level, but too many newcomers have also joined, and with shifting sentiments inevitably causing hub oscillations, a few words of digression are in order.
First, most who come here nowadays are for stocks. Originally, this place never discussed stocks — only poetry, song, music, philosophy, eating, drinking, entertainment, economics, mathematics, and the like. But the only way this ID can make a living is through activities like stocks. All of this ID's assets were extracted and squeezed from the market. Although more than a decade ago this ID was already free from the vexations of filthy lucre, after June 2005, this ID came back out to stir things up. Watching those charlatans and pyramid-scheme types everywhere deceiving the honest and harming people's wealth, this ID couldn't just stand by.
Of course, who this ID is doesn't matter, and this ID's age need not be disclosed. As for what this ID has done, there's even less need to say — but one can state with 100% certainty that when this ID was commanding wind and rain, 99% of the so-called big shots currently in the market probably hadn't even solved their basic sustenance problems. Stocks, whether for this ID or this blog, are a minor affair. In a sense, stocks and the like are merely a convenient way for this ID to engage with society. If not playing around in the market, this ID would be completely isolated from the world — and at this ID's current age, that's far too young for that. This was also one reason this ID came back out in '05; before that, the most this ID did was roam around online, and that post about the RMB and currency wars was casually written during those online wanderings before '05. Of course, there's another reason: this ID knew that RMB appreciation would bring an unprecedented bull market, bigger than anything this ID had previously played with. Moreover, when the market topped in 2001 and this ID took a break, this ID told friends that one of China's biggest future problems would be whether Chinese people would still be the masters of China's capital markets — and that too was a reason for this ID to come back.
For ordinary investors, stay away from all those who charge fees for stock tips — this is the most fundamental advice for everyone who comes here, whether permanent residents or passing visitors. In the market, which of the so-called big shots truly worth this ID's attention ever made their name through charging fees? Anyone who hawks and hollers for those few pennies in fees — what kind of big shot could they be? With the effort spent hawking for those meager fees, you'd be better off pulling a quick trade for some real thrills. Entrusting your livelihood to people who can't even protect themselves is just collective suicide. Honestly, the most worthless thing in the world is information about stocks. Stocks are essentially just scraps of paper — though paying for information about scraps of paper is, compared to sacrificing your life for information about God, at least slightly less waterlogged in the brain department.
This ID doesn't like sand in the eyes. So now that there are more people here and the crowd is mixed, whereas previously posts were never deleted here, from now on posts will be deleted — but only one type: those selling ads and scamming for money. Everything else, do as you please. This ID treats all equally. If cursing this ID makes you feel good, this ID will also feel pretty good about it.
This ID's place charges no fees, accepts no disciples or followers. If you are a Buddha, this ID bows in reverence — don't belittle yourself. This place is like an empty valley — let clouds drift, wind stir, tigers roar, and dragons sing. Everyone, make yourselves at home. Coming here, stocks are just a minor path; ultimately, if you can go from the minor path to the great path, that counts as a small gain. Otherwise, it's all just child's play. It's not about leaving stocks to seek some great path — if your great path can't even handle stocks, then yours is a garbage path. Some people can't stand this ID writing about stocks here, thinking it's become vulgar and degenerate — that's exactly the type I'm talking about. This place spans heaven and earth, crushing heaven and hell in one fist — don't imprison yourself within self-drawn boundaries.
Looking at yesterday's replies, I noticed questions about the sub-level connecting same-level hubs. Note that this issue has actually been discussed before. A sub-level connecting two same-level hubs — this is essentially a trend. So when decomposing, that connecting sub-level must of course be in the same direction as the trend itself; otherwise, it wouldn't be a trend. Therefore, on that diagram, (g0d1+d1g1+g1d2)+d2g2+(g2d3+d3g3+g3d4) is not allowed, because these two same-level hubs have overlap, and the direction of d2g2 is wrong.
I just saw that old acquaintance with the following statement: "Many people believe that China's stock market has already reached the stage of 'everyone trading stocks,' but my view is that China is still far from 'everyone trading stocks.' After all, the current number of accounts is less than 100 million, and generally people open accounts in both markets, so that's roughly only 50 million households. Even if each household has three to four members, that's only a little over 100 million people, less than one-tenth of China's population. In developed countries, this ratio is one-third or even half."
Compare this with what this ID wrote in April: "From the perspective of the historical trend of market development, the current 'everyone trading stocks' is not excessive — it's far from enough. Currently in China, whether in terms of social or personal assets, the proportion occupied by virtual assets such as stocks is still vastly distant from that in countries with developed market economies. Before stocks and other virtual assets account for 30% of total social and personal assets, 'everyone trading stocks' can only be considered the initial stage, which inevitably requires a major rapid development to meet the minimum requirements of market economic development. Currently, the gradually emerging phenomenon of 'everyone trading stocks' in China's capital markets not only conforms to the inherent logic of market economic development but also possesses historical inevitability and broad development prospects. 'Everyone trading stocks' enables any enterprise or individual in society to fairly select and participate in the most valuable investment opportunities in the market economy through the open platform of the capital market, allowing the most fair and reasonable allocation of social and individual resources. Before stocks and other virtual assets account for 50% of total social and personal assets, all criticism of 'everyone trading stocks' is laughable and shortsighted."
The regulators need to gradually align with this understanding; otherwise, they'll do stupid things.
Appendix:
Not much to say about today's market — it was just oscillating around yesterday's 5-minute hub. On Friday, due to uncertainty about weekend news, the closing session could only trade sideways. Next week, just keep watching this hub oscillation until a third-type buy/sell point appears. On the bigger picture, it's still the pullback confirmation activity after breaking through the 1/2 line of 4129 — nothing special. Next week is crucial because it involves the monthly candlestick close. If the monthly line leaves a long upper shadow, then a weak consolidation trend next month will be hard to avoid. If it closes as a clean bullish candlestick with no upper shadow, then the probability of continued strength going forward is much greater.
When we broke through 3000 earlier, someone asked about wave 5 this and that. This ID replied asking: why can't it be wave 3 of wave 3? Of course, this ID's script was designed this way. Whether it can ultimately be completed depends on coordination from many sides — it's not something this ID alone can fully determine. But from the live broadcast of breaking above 3000 before the Spring Festival, to the early morning of March 19 launching the general assault order with The Divine Land has its own Zenith Sun, all nations in ceremonial robes dance the Nine Shao, this game of 3-of-3 has been rather interesting. Didn't the traitors say we'd be back below 3000 within three months? Then let them keep waiting below 3000.
Looking back at the situation on March 19 below 3000 — no matter how the market has evolved since, things have definitely moved up a major step from that time. This situation was hard-won, and everyone treasures it. We also hope the regulators treasure it and keep their heads as dry as possible. Of course, the regulators don't speak with one voice either, so everything is the result of combined forces. The more people who contribute, the more likely we are to realize the blueprint the script has laid out.
This weekend, go enjoy yourselves!
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/5/25 15:41:14
Not much to say about today's market — it was just oscillating around yesterday's 5-minute hub. On Friday, due to uncertainty about weekend news, the closing session could only trade sideways. Next week, just keep watching this hub oscillation until a third-type buy/sell point appears. On the bigger picture, it's still the pullback confirmation activity after breaking through the 1/2 line of 4129 — nothing special. Next week is crucial because it involves the monthly candlestick close. If the monthly line leaves a long upper shadow, then a weak consolidation trend next month will be hard to avoid. If it closes as a clean bullish candlestick with no upper shadow, then the probability of continued strength going forward is much greater.
When we broke through 3000 earlier, someone asked about wave 5 this and that. This ID replied asking: why can't it be wave 3 of wave 3? Of course, this ID's script was designed this way. Whether it can ultimately be completed depends on coordination from many sides — it's not something this ID alone can fully determine. But from the live broadcast of breaking above 3000 before the Spring Festival, to the early morning of March 19 launching the general assault order with "The Divine Land has its own Zenith Sun, all nations in ceremonial robes dance the Nine Shao," this game of 3-of-3 has been rather interesting. Didn't the traitors say we'd be back below 3000 within three months? Then let them keep waiting below 3000.
Looking back at the situation on March 19 below 3000 — no matter how the market has evolved since, things have definitely moved up a major step from that time. This situation was hard-won, and everyone treasures it. We also hope the regulators treasure it and keep their heads as dry as possible. Of course, the regulators don't speak with one voice either, so everything is the result of combined forces. The more people who contribute, the more likely we are to realize the blueprint the script has laid out.
This weekend, go enjoy yourselves!
缠中说禅 2007/5/25 15:49:15
Sorry, this ID has to go out to discuss some business right away and can't chat with everyone.
Heading off now. Opening a concert on Sunday, see you then.
缠中说禅 2007/5/25 8:53:55
Today's market analysis will be appended at market close. Heading off for now, see you this afternoon.