3775 Points Determines Whether the Rebound Can Continue

2008/3/19 15:21:35

We are now discussing the trend from a purely technical standpoint. Whether 3775 points can hold firm will determine if the market rebound can continue. This morning's pullback after the big gap-up open was a second-best buying opportunity. Why? Just look at the 60-minute chart — it precisely formed a bottom fractal. And 3775 points is exactly at the upper edge of this bottom fractal.

If you understand the technical aspects here, then you'd have bought with confidence during this morning's first-hour pullback. Many stocks were even hammered to levels lower than yesterday's, for example 000938, which closed at the daily limit up.

Here, there must be a correction: the position indicated by the green arrow on the chart actually already constitutes a stroke, and since this stroke didn't return above 4431 points, it precisely forms a type-three sell point. So the current market trend is straightforward: either rally directly back to position 3 on the chart, or churn around here to form a line segment.

Since no clear nested interval has appeared yet, we cannot fully confirm that the decline from point 4 is definitely over. From the 60-minute chart alone, this clearly constitutes a divergence segment — it's just that this divergence segment hasn't been precisely located and confirmed through a nested interval. However, under normal circumstances, an eventual pullback to position 3 on the chart is an inevitable matter. The only choice is whether to complete the nested interval perfectly, or just head straight up from here.

And all of this — 3775 points is the key. Why? Because it determines whether the bottom fractal formed during the first hour this morning can ultimately extend into a stroke. If it can't even extend into a stroke, then of course we need to retest the bottom to achieve the perfect construction of the nested interval.

On the individual stock front, the moment a rebound arrives you can tell: low-priced stocks and thematic stocks remain the most vibrant, with their bouncy stock characteristics offering the best operability — cherish them well. Let me say it again: this year belongs to low-priced and thematic stocks. But you must understand — there is no one-way market, only hustle. And hustle — sprinting back and forth — generates profits no less than a one-way trend.

Signing off. Goodbye.