A Few Words After Dinner
2008/1/28 18:54:02
Since everyone's comprehension levels vary enormously, there are certain things this ID must reiterate. Namely, 580989 is not something everyone can play with. According to the theory's most basic pullback, today's move was already completed. Any major decline afterward would not be surprising at all. Don't see it rally nearly 100% over these two days and chase after it. Think about it — if you can't even handle stocks properly, how could you possibly handle warrants? You must pay attention: this ID does not want anyone to lose everything because of momentary greed.
Of course, if your skills are solid, there will be plenty of oscillation opportunities ahead. But all of this is determined by the resultant force and influenced by many factors. After all, this instrument faces the possibility of massive creation. The blitzkrieg tactics currently being used involve too many opposing forces gambling here. If you don't have the skill level, don't mess around in there.
When stocks drop, it simply reopens the profit window. The key to trading is discipline — consistent, regulated operations over the long term.
Trading stocks is like a general leading an army. Stock opportunities are like battle opportunities, but whether to engage, and how much risk a battle carries — you must estimate all this beforehand. For example, this time, once 4778 was broken, the theory immediately laid out those several scenarios. What happens after the rebound — all of it was very clear. Therefore, if your skills aren't strong, just take the worst-case scenario as the situation you're facing. Ask yourself: if this scenario materializes, can you handle it? If not, then don't trade. It's that simple.
Trading is a capability. The stronger your abilities, the more battle opportunities you can participate in. It's like warfare — fight battles that match your capability. If you have no capability, stay on the sidelines and wait until you see an opportunity suited to your ability before making a move.
Actually, trading is just that simple. First, you must understand your own capabilities. Then judge whether the difficulty of this opportunity is something you can handle. If you can't handle it, step aside. It's that simple.
Things are always simple — it's people who complicate them. Human greed makes people uneasy when they see others seizing opportunities. If that's you, then you'll never improve.
For true traders, listen only to the market and to yourself. This ID's theory outputs every single opportunity without exception. The key is whether you can correctly understand yourself and whether you can grasp whether this opportunity suits you.
The output of opportunities in this ID's theory is the most fundamental level — anyone who truly understands it can do this. But how these opportunities translate into the operational level — what's ultimately being cultivated is the person. That's what's most critical.
Let me repeat what was said before:
First, you must be able to correctly and completely output all opportunities at any given moment. This is the most basic requirement. If you can't even achieve this, then you are simply not suited to trade using this ID's theory.
It's simple. To evaluate your own level, answer this question: list three opportunities that must inevitably occur without being missed, and state the level at which they are inevitable.
Note that this ID's theory differs from all other technical analysis theories in that this ID does not care about the specific price levels or timing of these opportunities, because price levels and timing involve prediction. The manifestation of opportunities is like the blooming of a flower — when you see it, that's it. It's that simple.
To put it even more plainly: this ID's theory lists out opportunities of every level one by one. These opportunities must inevitably appear. You just need to wait for them to appear — it's that simple. Why bother predicting nonsense about price levels and timing?
When an opportunity appears, you must be able to recognize it. If you can't recognize it, you've missed it. It's that simple. Whether you can recognize opportunities — that's a second-step problem. How each opportunity is established and confirmed is all in the lessons. Understand it and you'll know. Then observe more, and you won't miss them.
For example, you know that according to the theory, the next opportunity is a 1-minute bottom divergence. But if you can't even identify a bottom divergence, then it won't work.
Recognition involves a process of gradual refinement. How well you can see depends on your grasp of the theory. If you don't even know how to use MACD as an auxiliary tool and think MACD equals divergence, then with that level, you'll never be able to identify divergence.
Once you've recognized it, it's time to trade. To decide to trade, you must think through the next step clearly: what is the next inevitable sell point? Once this sell point appears, what's the worst-case scenario? How do you categorize each possible situation? Where are the boundaries? How do you handle each boundary when it's reached? If you can't even understand this, if you haven't figured it out beforehand, if your mind isn't crystal clear, then it's no wonder the market messes you up.
If you can master the above three steps and become proficient, then you can be considered a beginner-level self-aware trader. Otherwise, you're just a confused fool.
For confused fools, nobody can save you. And besides, who needs to save a confused fool?
Let me say it once more: this ID is just a sparring partner. In the end, you must rely on yourself.
That's enough. May those with the karmic connection receive this.
缠中说禅 2008/1/28 19:51:46
abbushi takes the first seat