Standing Firm at 4391, Sights Set on 4695 Points.

2008/3/3 15:22:53

The market today finally broke through 4391 points in the most conventional manner. This morning, China Ping An — the most wretched stock of the year so far — did not drag the market down again, and the crash in overseas markets also had no major impact. The reason is that our domestic fundamentals received some stronger support, offsetting the corresponding negative influences and allowing the breakout to finally materialize as hoped.

Technically, this morning's dip happened to form the last line segment of the 5-minute hub's final oscillation, so the a+A trend structure's "a" portion can be perfectly decomposed into line segment consolidation, while A happens to be in the most basic form of 9 line segments. Of course, since the true third buy point hasn't appeared yet, the market still has the possibility of falling back into this hub's oscillation.

The most likely fundamental scenarios corresponding to this possibility are currently just two: first, overseas markets continue to plunge dramatically; second, that most wretched stock goes ahead on Wednesday, defiantly pushing through a massive secondary offering plan.

So whether the market can ultimately hold 4391 depends on monitoring these two fundamental factors.

Since 4391 was broken today, on the weekly chart a bottom fractal has appeared, and for this bottom fractal to extend into a stroke, 4695 must be effectively broken. This is also the ultimate key to whether a medium-term rally can unfold.

The technical description was given N days ago: under the most normal scenario, this renewed expansion of MACD red bars will bring the market back toward the 0 axis, corresponding to an assault on 4695. Ultimately holding the 0 axis, breaking through 4695 and holding effectively, will launch the real rally.

Of course, whether all this ultimately materializes requires fundamental cooperation during this period. As long as there are no major fundamental changes, everything will proceed step by step.

On individual stocks, this ID has already said everything that needed saying. Look at this ID's stocks — 600737 goes without saying — the chemical stocks 600078 and 600319, the agricultural stock 000998, the venture capital play 600635, and so on have all shamelessly made new highs since the 6124-point peak. Clearly, as long as the rally continues, there will soon be even more new highs — that goes without saying.

Of course, you're perfectly free to ignore this ID's stocks. You can search by the sectors this ID has indicated — for example, environmental protection and new energy, which have been mentioned countless times. Current stock software all have corresponding sector classifications — just browse through them and you can find plenty of good stocks. Look at how many limit-ups this sector had today.

In this world, even if bread is available, you still have to go eat it yourself. If someone is too lazy to even eat by themselves and needs to be spoon-fed, it would truly be strange if such a person were not devoured by the market.

Signing off, see you.