The Face-Project Olympics, with the Beijing Olympics as Its New Benchmark, Grandly Opens

2008/8/25 15:38:43

Nothing to say about the market — yesterday's assessment was already the most critical. The market needs more real substance. Technically, today changed the recent habit of big drops on Mondays, but since the 5-day moving average is still converging below the 13-day moving average, tomorrow — or at the latest the day after — will be the short-term watershed: will the 5-day cross above the 13-day, or will it widen again to form a new round of decline? The answer will come very soon.

The regulators have already attempted to do something, but they're being too sluggish. The fear is that when the time comes they'll produce a bunch of half-baked measures that instead disgust the market. So right now, everything is in a sensitive state. During this period, you must watch clearly. The safest approach remains following the technicals. The medium-term standard is very clear: first a weekly bottom fractal, then a monthly one — only when these two are constructed will the market have a big show. Otherwise it's just thrashing around up and down.

This week is critical — it determines whether this month can possibly become the lowest bar of a monthly bottom fractal. If this week doesn't go well, then everything will be pushed back at least one month. If that happens, the subsequent adjustment will last at least three more months — meaning it'll be at least two years before new highs can even be discussed. The longer the first round of adjustment, in a proper trend, the time to ultimately complete the entire adjustment will extend by N-fold — this is critical. This month marks the 10th month; the next cycle windows are at 12, 13; then 17, 18. Of course, the specifics depend on actual market movement — these are analytical frameworks from experience.

Currently, it's a period of hot money running wild, so warrants, local stocks, and other small-cap instruments will be frequently visited. But a genuine major move requires the China-prefix stocks to truly get moving. This ID of course wouldn't mind the regulators playing one bad hand after another so that this ID's dream of something like 6-yuan China Aluminum becomes reality. But this ID has been trading tactically from above 11 yuan — if it can't push higher, dump it; if there's a spread, buy back; if there's opportunity, let it break through its bottom for a better price. And it's basically this approach for all China-prefix stocks. Nobody is going to dive in all at once right now, but not getting involved at all now means you may not have a voice later — and that's a different problem entirely.

So, once again: for small capital, continue the sprint-race tournament. This is the only viable approach for dealing with such a chaotic environment. Or simply continue sitting on the small stool — then there's even less to worry about.

Speaking of sports events: today, the Face-Project Olympics — with the Beijing Olympics as its new benchmark — grandly opened. Henceforth, anything slapped with labels of national, global, exchange, development, showcase, and whatever other nonsense will have a new benchmark. Spend away! Burn away! In any era, if pseudo-culture based on grand narratives à la Zhang So-and-So gets to burn through money, that era must engage in self-reflection. To put it bluntly — you're just newly rich capitalists playing pretend. What's there to flaunt?

Yesterday, the most brilliant part was the London mayor taking the stage in a most nonchalant fashion — providing a supreme irony to the nouveau riche mentality's eagerness to show off. The other highlight, of course, was that eight-minute segment. I cannot elaborate here, because too few people understand contemporary Western philosophy and artistic development. This kind of art — based on breaking free from grand narratives, scattered yet organic — is something Zhang So-and-So's moronic nouveau riche productions could never even imagine.

When old-guard capitalism has long since begun its cold-blooded self-reflection and reconstruction, all the contrasts become simply too entertaining. After the Olympics have "Olympics-ed" China, let's see how the old-guard capitalist spiritual homeland lets London "Olympics" the Olympics. 2012 is worth looking forward to.

Originally planned to write a purely professional analysis of those eight minutes, but then thought — this ID doesn't even like scrap metal and sloppy cutting — why bother writing more just to irk extreme nationalists? Forget it.

To dominate in globalization, culture is the biggest hurdle. Actually, London's show was also muddled stuff — new cultural construction of course requires at minimum a global perspective. Without understanding this point, it's far from sufficient.

A long road ahead. Alas—