The Oscillation Delayed for the One-Year Olympic Countdown Was Only Delayed
2007/8/7 22:18:38
Sorry for posting so late. I can't write any other content today — can only talk about today's market.
Clearly, segments 8-11 have already extremely precisely formed a 1-minute hub, and 11-13 can be seen as an extension of that hub. Then 13-14 — this departure from the hub — followed by the pullback forming 14-15, constitutes a quasi-third-type buy point for the 1-minute hub. (Strictly speaking, a single line segment cannot constitute a buy point — it can only be a quasi-buy point. Because under this theoretical framework, the 1-minute hub is the smallest level, and the smallest level's trend must contain at least one 1-minute hub. Therefore, calling it a 1-minute third-type buy point is merely an analogy treating the line segment as a sub-level of the 1-minute. But this is only an analogical expression — in strict theory, it cannot be considered as such.)
Since the market closed, whether the segment 17 starting from 16 is complete cannot be determined. Therefore, tomorrow morning's opening movement will decide where that line segment ends. If it's below point 10 in the chart (i.e., below 4645 points), then a 5-minute hub will form: (8-11) + (11-14) + (14-17).
Pay attention — you must pay attention. Generally speaking, a third-type buy point does not necessarily lead to continued upward movement — there is a second possibility, which is forming a larger level, i.e., a 5-minute level hub. Generally, in terms of market movement, the probability of a third-type buy point from the first hub leading to continued upward movement is much greater than that from the second hub. For third-type buy points after the second hub and beyond during an uptrend, the probability of continued upward movement becomes increasingly smaller — meaning these third-type buy points have decreasing participation value. From a practical trading standpoint, having already bought at the first hub, there is absolutely no need to wait until the third-type buy point of the second or later hub to enter — that would be a sign of slow reflexes.
Therefore, regardless of how that line segment develops after tomorrow's opening, there is no participation value even for ultra-short-term trades — typical licking blood off a knife's edge. Starting tomorrow, what should be watched instead is that the oscillation delayed for the one-year Olympic countdown was only delayed — but "delayed" does not mean "eliminated." What must happen will happen. The two-point unfilled gap from yesterday also creates technical gravitational pull. Therefore, for practical operations, how to handle this oscillation well is the primary concern. Of course, it's not impossible that tomorrow, for certain reasons, there may be market-supporting forces that dampen this oscillation. But Thursday and Friday still have an extremely high probability of making up for it. Technically, after 4500 points was broken through, there hasn't yet been a forceful oscillation to confirm the breakout's validity. Generally speaking, this procedure is unavoidable. Human factors can at most trade time for space — but whether that can be achieved remains to be seen.
Regarding individual stocks, this ID invited everyone to come tour Beijing — these past few days have already been quite hospitable. Now, short-term, there's absolutely no participation value. This stock is this ID's medium-term stock — back-and-forth tossing until 2008 is inevitable, but this doesn't mean it'll never pull back. As for that equal-ratio one, this ID said early on that when the real launch comes, it will definitely be at a time when everyone can't hold onto it. Forget it — these small-cap stocks won't let too many people profit. With just that tiny bit of float, it's not even enough to pick your teeth with. Absolutely don't chase highs — with small-cap stocks, once too many people chase, it immediately becomes another disaster. What's the advantage of large capital? The advantage of large capital is being able to sit on a stock for a year or half a year and still manage to get costs to zero, while small capital shouldn't waste time on that. Some money just isn't destined for everyone.
This ID has been buying stocks since 3600 points, staying consistent with SASAC — only buying stocks with "China" in the name, as this ID hinted at at the time. Recently, names like China Shipbuilding and Chalco have gone crazy — don't think they've truly gone mad. Of course, these stocks have all risen a lot recently, so don't buy them now — just admire them. And by the way, think about why SASAC issued those stake-reduction regulations a while back.
For China-prefix stocks, this ID only mentioned one, the reason being its price was low, making it more suitable for retail investors. How it has performed, everyone can see. Steadily, without much fanfare, it has already gone from over 7 yuan to nearly 12 yuan. This is like late December last year when this ID told everyone at 6 yuan to buy that pharmaceutical — it was giving everyone a big bun, letting you earn some tuition for studying the lessons. That pharmaceutical — it's a stock this ID is prepared to hold for 20 years. Why? Huarun turned Vanke into China's number one — why can't they make the pharmaceutical number one in the world? Now at 20 yuan, still an S-share — this ID's cost from aggressively scooping at 6-7 yuan has been at zero for N months already. If I don't hold it for 20 years, how would I live with myself? Now, this ID's requirement for this stock is very low: maintain zero cost, accumulate 1 to 2 times the shares per year. Others earn money; this ID accumulates shares. As for that stock with a cost much lower than Sany, it too has gone from 7 yuan to 10 yuan. This stock has uncertain fundamentals — don't chase it at high prices. This ID doesn't have great confidence in this stock — it's more like a highway robbery, just raiding it for a haul.
Second and third-tier stocks will gradually awaken, but the frenzy of component stocks will continue until the bubble bursts, ending the first phase of the rally.
Enough said. Tired. Everything above about individual stocks is just sleep-talk. Going to rest.
Signing off for now, see you later.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/8/7 22:25:13
Sina redesigned? Everything here is in chaos for this ID. Can't find the edit button. Just published a wrong post by mistake. Everyone will have to wait.
缠中说禅 2007/8/7 22:49:52
Sorry, can't fix it. This ID's computer skills were never good to begin with. The new version apparently doesn't allow font size adjustment — let it be.
Sorry for the trouble, everyone. The correct post has been published. Not sure how long before it becomes visible.
Everyone's experiencing crashes — that's a redesign problem. An immature product — everyone will just have to bear with it.
Signing off for now, see you later.
缠中说禅 2007/8/7 22:23:38
Sorry, the chart was wrong and the post got messed up. Wait 15 minutes — the one that comes out then will be the real one.