A Scheming Attack from Across the Pacific

2007/8/17 15:58:48

After years of bullish atmosphere in global capital markets, the bears have finally found an opportunity. Various derivative instruments are working in concert, carrying a whiff of a 1987 replay. Or at least, they'll try for a 1997 at minimum. In truth, something happening in 2007 is perfectly natural—just look at 1987-1997-2007, even a blind man can spot the pattern. However, given the current globalization system, if nations can coordinate effectively, the magnitude of the turbulence can be substantially reduced. For instance, 1997 was less severe than 1987.

From the perspective of currency warfare, this ID has always maintained that the Americans' little tricks are merely about making the whole world foot the bill for their decadence, so there's absolutely no reason for sympathy. Moreover, because of America's position in the global capital system, the punishment they receive is actually shared with the entire world. At its core, this is nothing more than a scheming attack by the Americans. The logic is simple: if they can't outperform you on the way up, can't they drag you down? Fall together, make you suffer worse, or dump their rotten assets on the whole world to carry—tell me, who ends up being the biggest beneficiary if not the Americans?

America is not Thailand. Even if America crashes, it will still profit handsomely from the wreckage—still the big winner. As for America's core ruling class, the innermost interest groups, they are the winners among winners. The question now is whether this scheme has caught you in its trap.

Of course, for ordinary retail investors, these issues don't need to be studied. Today, acquaintances have already reported that those who went to Hong Kong just last week have already lost half their money. Every crow is equally black—what's so strange about that? Thinking QDII has any investment value? That's water on the brain.

Let ICBC lower their flags at half-mast for the Americans—second and third-tier stocks won't play along. Today, quite a few second and third-tier stocks are still attempting to spark a wildfire, refusing to stoop to the Americans' level. Whether this can become a consensus is hard to say. After all, funds with foreign backgrounds are now scrambling for the exits, and some people even want to take money from here to fill the crater in America's moon—well, let their capital be humanely annihilated by the capital markets.

One thing is certain: this week's terrible global performance will trigger forceful intervention by financial authorities worldwide. Therefore, the emergence of a powerful rebound is perfectly normal—whether a bear trap needs to be created beforehand isn't important. Looking at the big picture, after this rebound, if financial authorities' policies worldwide prove inadequate—or even more likely, if certain global interest groups deliberately ensure the policies are inadequate—then an even bigger decline lies ahead. Look at how 1987 played out: the first leg down wasn't that severe; it was the decline after the rebound that truly opened people's eyes.

So this first decline of the decade's financial storm isn't particularly important. The key is watching the fundamental conditions and how various nations play their hands after the subsequent rebound—that's where the real action is.

For the domestic market, the fundamentals are inherently different. If some foreign capital can be cleaned out during this volatility, that would actually be a good thing. But claiming this market won't be affected at all while the outside world continues its tempest—that's water on the brain. Think about those funds that entered through illegal channels: when their home base is in trouble, you think they won't be affected? And if they're affected, can the domestic market remain unaffected?

Technically, the 30-minute hub oscillation has been established—nothing more to say about it, the boundary conditions for this situation have been repeatedly discussed before. No need for charts today—today's segmentation is too simple. I'll post them together on Monday to save one image upload, since there's a total limit of only 200 here, which will run out in a few days.

On individual stocks: first-tier component stocks will follow external markets; once external markets stabilize, this will trigger a big rebound. For second and third-tier stocks, the key is watching capital inflows this time, but regardless, individual stock action will become active again.

One last question: 600139—those who used to despise it with burning hatred, what are your feelings now? From May 28 to July 6, just one month of shakeout, and you couldn't hold on—then what business do you have playing this game? But that's nothing—take 600594, which hasn't even been mentioned here. A cultural-circle acquaintance of this ID bought in June at 11-12 yuan and was explicitly told it would at least double. The other day, running into this person at a dinner, they said they'd cut their position at 10 yuan because someone told them the company was going bankrupt. This ID could only very politely have nothing to say.

Enough with the idle talk. It's the weekend—indulgence is the true path.

Everyone, happy indulging.

Signing off, goodbye.