Rogers, If You've Got the Guts, Come PK with This ID
2007/1/26 15:03:54
Under yesterday noon's most hostile conditions, who dared to openly challenge the Americans? Who was it that yesterday explicitly stated: "From a purely trading perspective, this ID had long since given timely advice on a strategic shift toward second- and third-tier stocks. But ICBC and other index-controlling instruments must not fall into American hands — this is a matter of principle. ICBC may have no action, it can continue consolidating around its current level, but anyone trying to knock ICBC down to pick up cheap shares — no way in hell. First of all, this ID won't stand for it!"? Who? And who further declared publicly: "This great bull market will absolutely not end before the third wave of major restructuring plays appears — this is beyond all doubt. Even if weekly-level hub oscillations occur, opportunities in individual stocks will keep coming. ICBC may have no action, but individual stocks won't be without action — don't believe it, just wait and see. Today, this ID's agriculture stocks, environmental stocks, public utility stocks, and military stocks all hit new highs — these are the vanguard!"? Who? Today, among this ID's vanguard, agriculture stocks, environmental stocks, military stocks, and non-ferrous metals continued to hit new highs, while ICBC gave the Americans zero opportunity in the face of the massive bearish news of a large batch of new stocks about to list. Some shameful traitors tried to make ICBC hit the daily limit down — no way in hell!
Rogers, if you've got the guts, come PK with this ID. We can compete in anything — for instance, we each put N hundred million yuan into a particular Chinese stock and go head-to-head, seeing who can make more money. Or we can use a fixed sum to compete in short-term trading, or compare returns over a defined period — whatever works, your choice. The method is simple: both accounts placed at the same brokerage, no need to show up in person, just wire the money over. Then the competition begins. Media is so advanced nowadays — this ID's challenge is right here. Spread the word!
It's gratifying to see some commenters who, following this ID's theory, dared to go all-in when the 1-minute divergence appeared at 2720 points today. If you study theory you must dare to put it into practice — otherwise, what's the point of studying? However, given the current reality of hub expansion, moving in and out based on short-term indicators becomes even more critical — this is precisely the huge difference between experts and amateurs. Use the oscillations — every dip is a massive profit opportunity. Those alarm clocks who cry for daddy at every drop — die!
Greed and fear — humanity's fatal weakness. The weekend is here — please give yourself one hour to find yourself!
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:17:36
[Anonymous] 罗锅
2007-01-26 15:14:29
Math sister!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I went all-in right at the 1-minute divergence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The post is in the article below!!!!!!!!!!! Everyone can check!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
===
This ID saw it — here's a big red flower for you!
Everyone should communicate more with each other. This ID is sometimes too busy, especially during trading hours, and can't look after everyone.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:20:49
[Anonymous] WHQ999
2007-01-26 15:15:33
DING! Sister Chan, you've worked hard! Thank you! Made a swing trade today, hehe.
===
During consolidation, you need to do more short-term trades — you can't just stubbornly hold long. When there's a short-term sell point, get out; when it comes back, get back in. Right now, pay more attention to the quality of stocks, because earnings are being announced — need to watch this more closely. Absolutely do not chase highs. You must apply the theory flexibly — otherwise, after studying this ID's theory, if you can't be flexible at all, wasn't it studied for nothing? How are you any different from those alarm clocks that go soft at every drop?
Being tough requires correct operations — working back and forth, who can match that?
Aerospace Communications (600677)
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:22:50
[Anonymous] 新年好
2007-01-26 15:20:40
Sister Chan, I bought 600677 yesterday, and it was a terrible buy. Today it even broke below the 30-day moving average. When I bought yesterday, I thought it was a third-type buy point on the daily chart. I didn't wait for the 5-minute divergence — I thought I saw signs of a divergence forming. This trading mistake was entirely my own wild guessing, not following Sister Chan's theory of waiting for the divergence to appear first.
Sister Chan, what should I do now?
===
Learn from this and reflect. A third-type buy point must wait for confirmation via a sub-sub-level divergence or a double pullback confirmation. This stock is a third-tier military stock — wait for the second-tier ones to open up the space, and the opportunity will naturally come.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:24:16
[Anonymous] 无敌槟榔
2007-01-26 15:18:07
Entered around 11 AM this morning based on the theory from this blog, though I'm a small-capital player;
===
Another big red flower for you! But watch the exit point — in oscillations, you must dare to move back and forth.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:25:14
[Anonymous] Little Bird
2007-01-26 15:23:11
Sister, I also went all-in at the low price. Also, I predicted yesterday that today would open low, go lower, and recover in the afternoon — I want a big red flower too!
Also, I've added another idol — Squad Leader Luoguo! I really like you too!
===
Another big red flower for you! But knowing how to buy means you must also know how to sell — only then is it a perfect round of trading.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:29:09
[Anonymous] 满目山河
2007-01-26 15:25:42
Sigh, my capital management was off, otherwise using Sister Chan's method I could have made 10% just today.
===
Reflect well on this — you must have a mobile position. Remember when this ID talked about the 800 million yuan? I specifically mentioned mobile funds, plus a pipe that can be liquidated at any time.
This time, that water utility stock also serves this function. This way you can counter any sudden market events.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:39:30
Everyone, pay attention:
In actual trading, relying purely on piling up money is the stupidest approach. You must use finesse — in Chinese culture they call it "deflecting a thousand catties with four ounces of force," something those stupid Americans could never understand. In terms of pure capital, this ID may not have as much as those traitors, but this ID uses every penny back and forth, generating far more force. Moreover, as long as someone stands as the backbone, others will naturally rally — for a stock like ICBC, you need to strike at critical positions so that one call draws a hundred responses. You can't just grind away mindlessly — you need allies, because one person's strength is limited.
From a purely theoretical standpoint, ICBC was supposed to break below 5 yuan. This ID stated long ago that ICBC's medium-term major trend is to break below the previous low of 5.11 yuan, completing the third segment of a daily-level trend completion. Then there would be a second segment at the weekly level. Whether ICBC's daily third segment is complete, next week will be key — after all, a whole batch of new stocks is coming, which is the biggest test for the market. However, over 10 trillion yuan in funds will be unfrozen next week. How to unite and channel some of these funds will be the key to success or failure next week.
Currently, ICBC's mission is stability, while the mission of other promising second- and third-tier stocks is growth. This is the relationship between market stability and growth right now.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:46:09
[Anonymous] 牛牛
2007-01-26 15:36:39
Sister Chan, for going back and forth in oscillations, we generally use 1-minute buy and sell points, right? Also, I went all-in today at 10:30, a bit early, but the result was great.
===
You can use this in fast markets. At a 1-minute divergence, pull the mobile funds out to prepare for the next attack. This portion of funds absolutely must not chase highs. As for the next buy point, you need to look at adjustments on the 30-minute chart and other levels — judge comprehensively, don't just blindly use the 1-minute chart.
Why did the 1-minute chart work so well today? Because this was a fast-moving market where a 1-minute divergence was enough to trigger a reversal. Actually, using the most conservative approach, you could have pulled some mobile funds out at today's close — lock in some of the spread profit first, because in a violently moving market, tomorrow's open is heavily influenced by news, people's psychology is very jittery, so there are especially many swings.
Note, what this ID is discussing here is all about mobile funds. Generally, these funds should make up 1/4 to 1/3 of your position, and during particularly bad trends should even be raised to 1/2. In a bull market, even during a medium-term correction, there's no need to go completely to cash, because during corrections there are many back-and-forth opportunities. Capturing all of these earns far more than just holding on.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:48:25
[Anonymous] 学习
2007-01-26 15:31:51
Right now I'm staring at the 1-minute chart — as soon as there's a pullback producing divergence, I run first.
==
That's too short-term. This is only necessary in violently moving markets. Once the market calms down, watching the 5-minute or 30-minute chart is better.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:49:39
[Anonymous] 心动
2007-01-26 15:39:44
Was today's 5-minute divergence between 10:56 and 11:01?
===
There was no 5-minute divergence today — it was the 1-minute chart that clearly showed divergence at the 2720 point.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:52:58
[Anonymous] 新年好
2007-01-26 15:48:08
May I ask Sister Chan and fellow students: I still have a question about the 1-minute market divergence. Was this divergence at the pullback to the zero axis at 10:23? I'm really confused — please make sure to answer. Thank you.
==
At 10:17, the yellow and white lines pulled back to the zero axis, then broke down again, reaching 2720 points at 10:56, but the MACD didn't make a new low — a standard divergence.
Shanda Huate (000915)
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:56:49
[Anonymous] Little Bird
2007-01-26 15:52:09
Also, 000915 showed divergence on the 5-minute chart, so I quickly sold — how come it kept going up after that?
===
000915 is still in a consolidation — it doesn't meet the conditions for a divergence comparison between two trend segments. As for divergence within consolidation, there's none either, because with MACD lines that have just crossed above the zero axis, you can't even talk about divergence. Divergence requires a big rally after getting above the zero axis, then a pullback to the zero axis, then another rally — only then can divergence occur.
The reason 000915 couldn't break out today is that the environment is still very turbulent. A rash breakout could let hidden traitors launch a sudden attack, giving the enemy the initiative.
To strike traitors, you must be even more cunning than the traitors! When you see the technicals, just follow the technicals.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 16:06:47
[Anonymous] 实际点
2007-01-26 15:54:25
New here, learning.
Could the host please explain today's 1-minute divergence in detail?
Let us study it well.
==
Everyone, watch carefully — this ID will analyze it for you:
The downtrend that started at 1:40 PM yesterday drove the MACD yellow/white lines far below the zero axis. At today's open, 9:30, both the yellow/white lines and the histogram bars were at their lowest. Then a three-wave bounce appeared, ending at 9:50, with the third wave very weak, but the MACD yellow/white lines had already pulled back near the zero axis. After that, the second round of decline began, lasting until 10:57. Compared to the previous round, MACD didn't make a new low — triggering a standard divergence.
Note that at 10:17, MACD moved even closer to the zero axis — this is called a double pullback. Generally, after a double pullback, it fails to get through and there's definitely another decline. Usually, this second pass of a double pullback forms the first hub within the decline. Especially after breaking below a previous hub, this actually constitutes a standard minimum-level third-type sell point.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 16:08:29
[Anonymous] 沉醉
2007-01-26 16:02:23
Support Chan,
I also bought 000915 yesterday — got a bit too excited and entered too high.
Absolute support!!!
==
Even to support this ID, you must buy at buy points — this is a good habit! If you chase highs to buy, this ID wouldn't be happy about it either. This ID most opposes anyone buying outside of buy points!
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 16:10:37
[Anonymous] stone
2007-01-26 16:03:09
Can we say: from 1:56 PM on the 25th to 10:57 AM on the 26th, the 1-minute chart formed a down-consolidation-down trend? But there's a problem with the 9:30-9:36 segment.
Also: I can see the market's 1-minute divergence, but not for individual stocks. For example, 000793 at 10:57 — I can't see it. Moreover, both the green histogram area and height are greater than before. In this situation, how do you reconcile the subsequent rise with Chan Theory? How should one understand this?
===
For individual stocks, follow their own charts. Some stocks are earlier, some are later — this is perfectly normal. Like 600432 — you absolutely cannot analyze it based on the market index; you must look at the specific stock.
Shanghai Composite Index (1A0001)
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 16:17:20
[Anonymous] Little Bird
2007-01-26 16:09:21
More questions:
- According to your first buy point and second buy point theory, currently this is the first buy point, and next week a second buy point will appear — meaning there should be another pullback, correct?
- The second buy point shouldn't be lower than the first buy point, and similarly, the second sell point shouldn't be higher than the first sell point, correct?
Also:
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán
000915 is still in a consolidation — it doesn't meet the conditions for a divergence comparison between two trend segments. As for divergence within consolidation, there's none either, because with MACD lines that have just crossed above the zero axis, you can't even talk about divergence. Divergence requires a big rally after getting above the zero axis, then a pullback to the zero axis, then another rally — only then can divergence occur.
I recall in your earlier lessons you mentioned that the first buy point occurs at the last entanglement in the male-on-top position. You said in a male-on-top position, the first entanglement usually isn't a divergence. So can I understand that in a female-on-top position, the first entanglement usually isn't a divergence either?
===
If you have MACD, don't use the top/bottom position metaphor anymore — the principle is the same, but MACD is more intuitive.
Everyone, pay attention — let this ID show you where today's second-type buy point on the market was. The first-type buy point was at 10:57 AM, 2720 points. The second-type buy point was at 1:30 PM, 2771 points, with MACD corresponding to a double pullback that held above the zero axis. The third-type buy point is very hard to find on a 1-minute chart, because 1-minute is already the lowest level, making the third type very hard to locate.
The first-type buy point is of course lower than the second type, and the second is lower than the third. For sell points, it's the reverse.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 16:18:51
[Anonymous] 戈石
2007-01-26 16:16:42
Respected host:
Is there a method to identify divergence purely from price action and volume? That's all I can see at work.
===
That's hard to do accurately. If you're at work, stick to larger levels, like the 30-minute chart, which moves more slowly.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 16:23:12
[Anonymous] 知了
2007-01-26 16:14:26
[Anonymous] PK
2007-01-26 15:59:17
Hehe, well said.
Can you turn 80,000+ yuan into 2,176,000 yuan in 2005-06?
Otherwise you're not qualified to PK with Rogers. Because he was bullish at 1000 points and bearish at 3000 points. But you're bullish at 3000 points.
-------
Showing off before an expert
===
Everyone, note: this ID has been consistently long since June 2005. The most famous article was called "G Stocks Are the G Spot" — everyone here should have read it.
This ID is currently neither bullish nor bearish — don't get it wrong. What to do during a hub expansion is dictated solely by theory, not by this ID's preferences.
But this ID's conclusion is clear: the first wave of the bull market isn't over. This view hasn't changed. Weekly-level hub oscillations don't affect this conclusion.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 16:42:36
[Anonymous] gggggg
2007-01-26 16:28:54
Host, why aren't you answering my question? Waiting eagerly.
I think although individual stock technicals are important, for people who want to trade medium-term,
learning to observe sectors and find leaders is more important. And I think the returns would be higher.
===
This can all be discovered through technicals. So-called bull stocks are simply stocks with technically good trends — this can be precisely determined through technical analysis. We'll discuss this later.
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 16:49:49
Time for congee today — has everyone prepared?
Signing off for now. Everyone, take your time chatting. Goodbye!
缠中说禅 2007/1/26 15:15:47
Everyone,
Greed and fear — humanity's fatal weakness. The weekend is here — please give yourself one hour to find yourself!