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A Chinese-Style Comedy at the Annual Moving Average

2008/2/4 15:20:02

That the first touch of the annual moving average would stage a comedy was already stated back in December last year. Of course, when the show actually begins, believers will be few, and the more non-believers there are, the more comedic it becomes — the market is always like this. So even if you hand people the script, the vast majority still won't get it right. This has been said many times. However, after this episode, everyone should have a more visceral understanding of what this ID said last week about "writing joy through sorrowful scenes multiplies the joy."

Here, this ID further clearly informs everyone in advance: this time, the new funds were shaken out in very Chinese fashion, but this still isn't what they truly want. As previously stated, the probability of shaking out the stamp duty this time is very low. So next time, or the time after that — in any case, what needs to change will eventually change. The change in stamp duty is one of the objectives for 2008, as has been stated multiple times.

Technically, quite coincidentally, the line segment corresponding to Friday's low was exactly the 360th segment — a full circle. Many people keep asking: what is 3600? Why is it correlated with the Shanghai index? I suppose this question no longer needs to be asked. Some people still want to ask: was there a bottom divergence on Friday? If you can't even see Friday's divergence, then you can only go back and re-study. Look at the 15-minute chart and think about which two segments should be compared for strength.

Some may ask again: if there hadn't been the weekend's positive news, could the divergence still hold? Anyone asking this question fundamentally hasn't read this ID's lessons at all. A confirmed divergence only guarantees a return to the last hub — this has nothing to do with whether there's news or not. In fact, by Friday's close this had already been achieved, and the so-called positive news merely strengthened its force.

In substance, today's rally has not escaped the range of the last hub. The third-type buy point of that 5-minute hub around 4500 points has not been created. Therefore, technically, it can still be viewed as a fluctuation within that hub.

Moreover, this ID wants to ask everyone: if there hadn't been Friday's brutal sell-off, could this positive news have come out? Many things are interlocking games of strategy — how could the waters be shallow here?

Let me ask everyone another question: how do we get the stamp duty changed? What suggestions do you all have? Please share.

The height of this rebound depends on whether the predatory fundraising ultimately shows some restraint. Of course, external factors also have some influence. But this downturn was mainly caused by predatory fundraising. People have already started agitating on this front. Things have progressed considerably — at least various voices can now reach their due partial forces through certain channels. So what this agitation produces is also very important.

Actually, today's positive news concealed a very large negative factor. Over the weekend, senior central bank officials said that large enterprises should primarily resolve their financing needs through the capital market, and expressed the view that monetary tightening would absolutely not be relaxed. Of course, these people don't make the final decisions, and their words don't count for much. However, this proves that certain viewpoints or interests still have quite a market — this is the uncertainty factor, or rather the major hidden danger, going forward.

Technically, the analysis remains the same as before: 450 points per grid. If 4778 can't be broken, then the previous two 5-minute hubs will merge into a single 30-minute consolidation.

Regarding individual stocks, today saw a broad rally. The key is follow-through capability. It's still those three categories mentioned on Friday: ordinary stocks will face heavy pressure when they rebound to resistance levels, while stocks with little trapped selling pressure or with major funds and new themes will tend to show more sustained performance.

Note: this year in stock trading, you must dare to buy when it falls into place and dare to sell when it rises too much. Those who chase after it rises and cut after it falls will be cleaned out after a few rounds. If your technical skills aren't good enough, it's better to ride the elevator than to chase highs and kill lows. Of course, it's best not to ride the elevator. The only way to avoid riding the elevator is: when it's rising, keep your eyes wide open for any major-level sell points appearing. When you see daily or weekly top fractals, operate according to your own skill level.

Tomorrow, let's watch PetroChina's performance — the broader market will see some fluctuation.

Finally, if anyone is particularly familiar with Ping An, or has powerful evidence of their wrongdoing, please provide it in the comments or messages. After the holiday, there will be a reckoning with Ping An. Quite a bit of ammunition has already been collected, but if there's anything more explosive, feel free to contribute.

Some things simply need someone to do them. Act, and there is a partial force. If there isn't even a partial force, how can the resultant force be changed?

Signing off for now, see you later.