Today I Must Break My Rule and Talk About Stocks

2007/10/27 16:44:21

Theoretically speaking, that place isn't somewhere you can just casually stay. But in fact, as long as you know the ropes, you really can get in quite casually — especially the venue where today's so-called derivatives conference was held. That place today dealt with stock index futures so casually — was it all just for those antique objects inside that even the fanciest hotels don't have?

Some foreigners or out-of-towners always consider it a high-level reception to be brought to stay at that place. Actually, let me reveal something: if you know the ropes, the standard room rates there are actually a bit cheaper than Beijing's best hotels. And today's derivatives conference being held at this recently renovated venue — I wonder if this reflects a bit of the mindset of those who aspire to stay in such quarters. To put it bluntly, a country bumpkin's mindset.

A country bumpkin's mindset isn't necessarily limited to those typically considered country bumpkins. Like now, the eagerness to rush into stock index futures has a similar mentality. The timing to launch futures right now is fundamentally wrong — unless stock index futures have already been treated as a "staying at the state guesthouse to show off" kind of toy.

Those who stay at state guesthouses, especially the businesspeople who go there, are usually just there to bluff. Those with real strength don't need to bluff. Similarly, without stock index futures, China's capital market can still be brilliant.

Someone at the conference actually said that with futures, there would be a short-selling mechanism, enabling this and that, and the stock market wouldn't go wild in one direction, et cetera. Does the person who said this not remember "327"? And didn't "319" keep recklessly surging one way until it finally led to treasury futures being shut down?

This ID already laid down the harsh truth long ago: under the current free-float conditions, after futures are launched, those who ultimately go short will certainly die with not even their bones remaining. There isn't even stock short-selling yet, and they talk about a short-selling mechanism? Want to launch stock index futures? First increase the free float and implement short-selling. Otherwise, the more futures, the more deaths.

Of course, this ID isn't the least bit worried about the current situation. The new officials haven't even taken office yet, let alone lit their three fires. What the current ones want to say, they can say — the key question is whether what they say actually counts.

If the current free-float volume and trading mechanism remain unchanged, then once the launch of futures is confirmed in the near term, this ID will become the most resolute bull. Of course, it might be a bear trap before going long.

HSBC is already at N-hundred, so why can't ICBC be? Running ICBC and BOC up to 200 yuan — what's wrong with that?

Madness — who can't do that? Go crazy once, everyone dies together. Die sooner, get it over with sooner.