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A Historical Explanation for This Year's Many Disasters and Strange Events

2008/6/10 16:40:36

This ID has been waiting for a major stock market drop to write this article, so that everyone would have a deep impression. Especially at the previous gap position, this ID pointed out that more consideration should be given to the special nature of this year. At times when dangers are not apparent, there are often strange events lurking behind—quite a few people dismissed this ID as superstitious. At the time, this ID temporarily answered that the world is more mysterious than we imagine, waiting for these strange events to appear before publishing this article on the mysteriousness of history.

Let me first analyze the market situation. In the market, the very first thing is to clearly distinguish the critical difference between prediction and operation: prediction is a game, fodder for casual conversation over tea; operation is real combat with live ammunition, a struggle of blood and fire. Absolute predictions are ultimately jokes, while non-absolute operations are ultimately dead ends. Take this time—what the absolute operation should be, this ID has already repeatedly explained: if 3656 can't hold, leave; at the 3300 gap position, if the gap isn't filled you can reload chips and play a short-term trade, otherwise let the market go the way of the Vietnamese dong. Here, the entire operation design has no uncertainty—everything is absolute. This is how you trade stocks rather than being traded by stocks. Any prediction can only forever cycle on the dead-end road of being traded by stocks.

The above words have been said countless times, but if they don't become your natural reflex, directly branded into your bones and heart, they're useless—you'll inevitably get confused regularly.

So the current operation is extremely simple: one short-term opportunity lies at the divergence point of this round of decline. Then you must watch whether the rebound can fill today's gap. If it can't, you must exit, because there will inevitably be another downward probe to create a better opportunity. Conversely, if it can fill the gap, then watch the third-type buy/sell point situation of the hub formed after the gap fill. Such an operational arrangement is completely absolute, with no ambiguity whatsoever. If you can't understand it and feel confused, please humbly study the course materials well—they contain the most mathematically precise definitions.

As for the casual tea-time predictive chatter, this ID gave that out long ago—it's the historical cyclical phenomenon of the Shenzhen Component Index that has been repeatedly emphasized. Very early last year, this ID pointed out that the Shanghai index would very likely completely copy the entire previous trajectory of the Shenzhen index, from the 6100-point high to the subsequent decline pattern and ending position. This prediction was given long ago, and it's also a very important reason why this ID said the rebound from 3000 points would very likely be followed by one final drop. If we must apply the wave theory that you're all more familiar with, then from the 6100-point drop, the 4778-point rebound is wave 2, the 3000-point rebound is wave 4, and then comes the so-called wave 5 decline. Of course, wave theory is a very imprecise thing—it's used here only because you may be more familiar with its terminology, just borrowing it for illustration.

The mysteriousness of the world causes history to exhibit cyclical phenomena even more worthy of attention than the Shanghai-Shenzhen rotation described above. This year happens to be one of those 32-year cycle points, and historical mysteriousness once again mercilessly reveals itself.

First, look at this historical year sequence: 1912, 1944, 1976, 2008. In each of these years, strange events occurred in abundance, causing extreme unease. Everyone is most familiar with 1976—the successive departures of three great leaders, the great earthquake, and so on. However, the year following each of these was a historically noteworthy moment for the Chinese nation. The Second Constitutional Protection Movement of 1913, followed by a brief period of war, shattered the last hope of feudal restoration, and China gradually moved toward a completely new era. In 1945, victory in the War of Resistance, followed by a short civil war, led to the founding of the People's Republic, and China embarked on the road to complete rejuvenation. In 1977, a new era began; after a brief period of ideological struggle, in 1979 this transformation was finally established at the national level, propelling the Chinese nation forward on the path of rejuvenation.

Everyone should see a unified pattern behind this historical sequence: an extremely harsh year is followed by a historic turning point, and the final establishment of this turning point requires several years of back-and-forth—the series of chaotic battles after 1913, the civil war after 1945, the ideological struggles after 1977, and so on. Therefore, in the new 32-year cycle, we have reason to predict that 2009 will be a historic turning point, followed by several years of back-and-forth, until the final direction is established and the wheel of history continues to spin.

So in this long year of 2008, it is absolutely possible that more events befitting the 32-year cycle will occur, perhaps even beyond our current imagination. Therefore, thinking more and preparing more this year is absolutely the right approach. Thinking through matters more carefully and considering all possible factors more thoroughly is especially important in such a year.

The top priority of 2008 is survival. Only through survival can one witness the bright turning point ahead. Dying before dawn is the most tragic fate. Since last year, this ID has been saying that this year one must be careful of pitfalls. Of course, after each downward pitfall, there will be corresponding opportunities. For example, after this final drop, there will be at least a rally back to the stamp duty rebound high—as long as you follow the plan, this opportunity is not at all difficult to seize. But overall, this year is not one for grand construction. Carefully tend your own small plot of land, and you'll have a good harvest without going bankrupt.

Let me add something here: as for those who oppose lending a hand to Vietnam, saying Vietnam is a backstabber, this is absolutely a case of confusing the mechanical operation of national interests with moral judgment. The construction of a nation's security bulwark system has nothing to do with whether the constituent elements are backstabbers—it is a purely mechanical systems engineering project. There will be a dedicated post on the specifics later.