China's Housing Market Is Probably Really Going to Crash
2008/6/16 12:49:59
Spent the whole weekend house-hunting, skimming through basically every available project in the city. Going forward I'll focus on the ones that interest me for detailed investigation. The skimming doesn't matter much, but I did discover a major problem. This ID hasn't bought property in N years and had no firsthand feel for the housing situation. This trip was an eye-opener — China's housing market is probably really headed for an inescapable reckoning.
During these two days of house-hunting, virtually no one else was looking at any of the projects, and sellers readily offered substantial discounts. This ID was house-hunting on weekends, mind you. Given this city's leading position in China's real estate market and its extremely high level of market economic vitality, this phenomenon is abnormal. This city used to routinely see new projects selling hundreds or even over a thousand units on the first day, with several hundred million or even over a billion yuan collected. Now, looking at this city's daily sales statistics, projects with just a few transactions per day can rank in the top several.
In another month or two, the situation will probably become even clearer, especially after the Olympics — once even the last bit of thematic hype dies in the light of day, the housing market will probably truly enter its difficult period. However, this ID is buying for personal use, mainly looking at projects surrounding this city's CBD, with move-in dates that work. What I've been looking at ranges from the earliest at August 1st to late November. Some can be handed over immediately but need self-renovation, which this ID dreads most. Entrusting renovation to others is absolutely unreliable — after all, I'll be living there every day, and if anything's unsatisfactory, dealing with daily annoyance is utterly pointless. So it must be done personally. But doing it personally — I really don't have the time. When buying properties before, I often just bought the model unit directly. This time the standard here is relatively high; the decoration styles generally suit this ID's taste, and the current trend is light on hard renovation, heavy on soft furnishing. This time I plan to put some effort into the furnishing — it saves more time. But the result still needs to be good. After all, I'll be living there for several years, and there's also the need to guard against recurrence. A good daily living environment is still very important.
Some people seem to take issue with this ID asking everyone in the last post about who should write the preface and epilogue. Actually, the reason this ID asked everyone is because I treat you all as family. For instance, talking about these renovation matters above is entirely in a family-member tone. Of course, if some people feel they'd only be comfortable putting this ID high up on a pedestal, this ID has no objection either. To true friends, this ID has always treated them as family — when there's something, we discuss it together.
Life is ordinary — eat and then wash the dishes. It's that simple. Trying to show off something here will only expose one's shortcomings. As for those who insist on displaying how outraged they are at bureaucrats, wanting to bash all officials with one stick — this ID has no objection either. In this ID's eyes, there aren't that many tedious distinctions. People are just people. Every person exists first as an individual. This ID only cares about the individual themselves. And regarding individuals, without personal contact, bashing them just because of whether they're officials — what does that reveal other than narrow-mindedness?
I'm very grateful for some of the suggestions, such as having the title calligraphy and the preface/epilogue done by different people, which would allow finding three people. This ID's work doesn't need anyone to elevate it, and nothing in history can ultimately be elevated by others. This book is like a soirée: if there are some special guests, it just makes the soirée more interesting. That's all.
As for the stock market, everything that needed to be said was said last weekend. Just operate this minor rebound well, and prepare thoroughly for the final drop's ultimate completion. However, one must note: since the first leg down from 6124 is already definitively a declining trend type rather than a single-hub consolidation type, the rebound after this final drop won't be particularly impressive either. There's still a very high probability of facing an even more terrifying zigzag-pattern second leg down. How to handle it — design it according to your own abilities.
Starting tomorrow the hydrotherapy officially begins, but the specific protocol hasn't been fully determined yet. Several department heads seem to be coming for one final consultation this afternoon. This ID has zero enthusiasm for this round of chemotherapy. They can do whatever they want. This ID's attitude is: I won't refuse what comes, but I'll never proactively invite it. Delay one day if possible — earlier is fine too. That's the attitude.