Sorry — A Late Market Analysis

2007/11/25 22:00:34

I'm back, though I need to fight a share acquisition battle—while it involves a listed company, it only pertains to its assets, not the listed company itself. So I might be extremely busy these next few days, and market analysis sometimes might be delayed—for example, tomorrow. Please forgive me.

As mentioned before, around the 120-day moving average, the worst case would still definitely include at least one pullback attempt toward 5000 points, and Friday's market action was essentially playing out this script. The question is whether the bulls can muster the courage to stand above 5000 points by relying on the 120-day line—next week will tell.

5163 points is a critical position. If the market can retake it, then it's continued hub oscillation; otherwise, a serious test of the 120-day support awaits. Next week is also the monthly close—if it can't close near the 5-month line, then the 10-month line support will be tested next.

Note: from a medium-to-long-term perspective, after the monthly top fractal has been established, the only important question is whether it extends into a stroke. Once it extends into a stroke, then before a monthly bottom fractal appears, there won't be any substantive medium-to-long-term rally in the market.

On individual stocks, some thematic stocks have started to stir. Apart from the particularly excited ones, the bigger moves are generally for next year. As for the "China-prefixed" stocks, until PetroChina completes the China Life-like trajectory that this ID predicted on its listing day, they will be repeatedly tormented—after all, plenty of people harbor violent impulses and are intent on battering these China-prefixed names.

However, the battering is only to acquire enough shares at cheap enough prices. It's just that under such torture, stubbornly holding on is always painful. This ID has no interest in enjoying tiger bench-style torments—this ID only knows to buy when a major buy point appears, without needing to endure any instruments of torture.

No more time to write. Today, a round of contract wars is expected to go through the night. This ID has to get to work.

In modern warfare, the fiercest battles are often fought over equity. Go kill with everything you've got.

Signing off. Goodbye.