Confidence Is Not Something You Can Have Just Because You "Should Have" It

2008/3/14 15:12:11

Today, a certain vice chairman delivered another grand speech, saying people should have confidence in the market. But confidence is not unconditional. It's not something you can have just because you think you "should have" it. Market confidence especially cannot be created by drawing pies in the sky — market confidence comes from real, tangible improvements in the market environment.

May I ask: has management taken the measures it "should have" to improve the market environment and stabilize market confidence? For example, something as simple as regulations on secondary offerings "should have" been in place long ago, but the fact is, nothing that should exist actually exists. So before demanding what the market "should have," shouldn't you first ask yourselves whether you've fulfilled your basic duties that you "should have" toward the market?

The current collapse of market confidence is, at its root, a perfectly normal and reasonable response to management's recent aimless policies. If the most fundamental problems aren't solved and they keep tinkering with useless gimmicks all day long — is this really what management "should" be doing?

Moreover, this collapse of market confidence is contagious and spreads rapidly. Once fund holders' confidence also begins to crumble on a large scale, massive redemptions become inevitable. Must we really wait for that situation to arise before waking up? And when that situation does arise, can it really be dismissed with a single line like "market speculation isn't something everyone can participate in"?

Technically, below 4000 points another 1-minute hub has formed, meaning this 1-minute decline now has 3 hubs. Generally speaking, this means a short-term rebound could appear at any moment. But if this rebound can only form a 5-minute hub around 4000 points, then the pressure once it subsequently evolves into the first hub of a 5-minute decline can be well imagined. As for whether this rebound produced by the end of the 1-minute decline is a full divergence or a consolidation divergence — there's essentially no major difference.

Next week, the Two Sessions will end, and this will be another moment testing confidence. If there's no special news, then those still foolishly hoping the Two Sessions would produce something will once again waver in their confidence. Right now, a very big problem is: if the market's structure remains like this, then every rebound will only serve as an exit opportunity for those who've lost confidence.

Right now, perhaps this is the most critical question: please give us a reason to stay. This is what management should be doing. Don't draw pies — we need real substance.

It's the weekend. Let's set stocks aside. Spring has arrived, and heaven and earth are so vast — there's no need to waste weekend time on stocks as well.

Signing off, see you later.