Just Back in Beijing — More on Private Equity Investment
2007/6/11 20:50:14
Just flew back from Nanjing. To say something Nanjing people won't like hearing: Suzhou is truly so much better than Nanjing. This trip to Suzhou, the Jinji Lake area has also improved a lot since last time. Nanjing gives you the same old feeling of disorderliness. Hangzhou isn't great either — today's Hangzhou has completely lost its character. Without West Lake, I truly don't know what Hangzhou would even be. Of course, driving from Nanjing, the contrast the moment you enter Anhui is also stark. Today's China is truly a cacophony of voices.
This trip covered five provinces. Exhausting — need a good rest tonight. However, I never missed market hours along the way, thanks to today's advanced communications technology. Technology should liberate people, not bind them — that's an important point.
Today the market moved very normally. No news over the weekend is good news, so naturally the market attempted an assault on 4015 points. As mentioned before, in this stretch, Shenzhen has been leading Shanghai. The former's 1/2 line is at 13700 points — it hasn't been touched yet, so there's room. As long as this rhythm holds, the market overall won't have big problems. Now the 5-day moving average has also successfully turned upward. If you can't read short-term movements, just watch the 5-day MA — no break means no problem. The stamp duty is too expensive now, so don't swing trade too frequently. Expand your operating timeframe and life will be easier.
As for private equity investment, unlike traditional VC, it only invests in companies about to list. More importantly, it allows for grand strategic positioning across the industrial structure. China right now is heading into an era of great industrial consolidation, and the opportunities here are astoundingly large. I'll say more when there's time. Ordinary investors have no access to this grand opportunity. Private equity funds haven't been developed yet either, so ordinary investors can only toil away in the secondary market.
Can't say more — this ID needs to rest. Heading off first, goodbye.
Appendix:
If you can't even handle today's oscillation, then you need to go nourish your heart — buy a pig heart or cow heart and go gnaw on it at home. Today's breakout above 4015 and pullback to the 5-day MA is technically picture-perfect. This is the second step of the market's "setting things right" movement discussed earlier. The third step is the 1/2 line at 4144 points, and the fourth step is making new highs. And for Shenzhen, it's 13700 points. Now you should understand the significance of Shenzhen leading Shanghai. Shenzhen has already made new highs, so what about Shanghai? Of course, whether the script can play out act by act ultimately depends on all parties cooperating. If there's another midnight wailing session, then it'll just be another Les Misérables. As this ID said last time, this only hurts retail investors. Big money slams hard but buys back hard too — how could anything happen? Of course, whoever dares to play such midnight games now will bear historical responsibility.
On individual stocks: know that in this "setting things right" process, there's a sequence. As mentioned before, the so-called blue chips went first. Now many of these are already around new highs. As for other stocks, forming a double bottom or head-and-shoulders bottom should be fine, right? Ultimately, as long as the index is fine, the vast majority will rotate through. People are still in a state of doubt right now, so the key is to put everyone at ease through oscillation. Shenzhen poking its head up today was also a test of all parties' reactions — this psychological and policy-level testing is still necessary. Same as yesterday: if you can't read charts, watch the 5-day MA. No break means hold. That's not tiring either. Once the market truly holds above 4000, third-tier stocks will gradually become active too, especially those with themes.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 15:50:48
[Anonymous] Sina User
2007-06-12 15:39:59
[Anonymous] Sina User
2007-06-12 15:03:05
Have you all considered? Maybe the blogger already exited 139 before the big drop. What's the point of shouting here now? Better to get out, make some money elsewhere, and re-enter 139 when it has a run. I reckon 139 won't go far.
===
I don't believe the blogger would abandon us.
She's not that kind of person.
Even though she's a girl, her promises have always been serious. No man can match.
＝＝
The blogger's character is unmatched by anyone.
This isn't about character — it's about buy and sell points. Seems like this classmate still needs to study harder with Master Chan.
=
That someone can say this means this ID hasn't wasted the effort. In the market, one must preserve heavenly principles and extinguish human desires.
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 15:54:35
[Anonymous] Sina User
2007-06-12 15:44:19
I've been studying Sister Chan's articles intensely lately. The definitions regarding hub levels and the line segments forming hubs are really hard to understand. Looking at the diagrams in Lesson 54 and Lessons 56, 57, 58, there seem to be contradictions.
Lesson 54 is a 1-minute chart. The three segments forming the 1-minute hub seem obviously different in level from those in the later lessons.
I hope experts can discuss this together. When Sister Chan comes online later, I'll ask her directly.
==
Please first understand line segments, and then how line segments continue to form higher-level structures. Some people always ask how to read the 5-minute chart. Actually, that's a resolution issue — what you see on the 5-minute chart definitely isn't as precise as on the 1-minute chart. You can find daily-level hubs on the 1-minute chart too. Chart levels and trend levels are not the same thing.
Trend levels are objective, while chart levels are subjectively chosen — they're different magnifications of a microscope. This has been mentioned multiple times before.
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 15:58:22
[Anonymous] Sina User
2007-06-12 15:54:50
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán
2007-06-12 15:50:48
[Anonymous] Sina User
2007-06-12 15:39:59
[Anonymous] Sina User
2007-06-12 15:03:05
Have you all considered? Maybe the blogger already exited 139 before the big drop. What's the point of shouting here now? Better to get out, make some money elsewhere, and re-enter 139 when it has a run. I reckon 139 won't go far.
===
I don't believe the blogger would abandon us.
She's not that kind of person.
Even though she's a girl, her promises have always been serious. No man can match.
＝＝
The blogger's character is unmatched by anyone.
This isn't about character — it's about buy and sell points. Seems like this classmate still needs to study harder with Master Chan.
=
That someone can say this means this ID hasn't wasted the effort. In the market, one must preserve heavenly principles and extinguish human desires.
====
Seems I'm the one who understands him after all!
==
Buy and sell points are the result of combined forces. When a buy point appears, rising is the natural order — it's that simple. Don't mistake the finger for the moon.
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 15:59:10
[Anonymous] Sina User
2007-06-12 15:57:45
Boss, it seems like oversold theme stocks haven't been performing well in this rebound. How long until it's their turn?
==
Didn't today's market commentary already say it? Look at the last sentence.
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 15:59:30
[Anonymous] Night雨
2007-06-12 15:52:29
Hello, sister.
=
Hello.
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 16:07:53
[Anonymous] Sina User
2007-06-12 15:58:55
Hello boss, why no new article today?
Also, that geometric series stock — should be fine to hold now, right? Hoping the boss can answer. Thanks.
==
Sorry, one business trip leaves behind a lot of socializing to catch up on. Can't write today — tomorrow there'll be a new article.
That stock was mentioned many times. People shouldn't have swarmed in to buy it in the first place. The share float is too small — can't take the pounding. In a decline of this magnitude, this is naturally what happens. Actually, this stock hasn't dropped that much — only 5% a day. Of course, the recovery will be slower, especially since it's still carrying the star designation. Everything has to follow rhythms — what comes first and what comes later, that's the rule.
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 16:11:58
[Anonymous] whq999
2007-06-12 16:04:32
Sister Chan, housing prices in Shanghai and elsewhere have started surging again. What do you think about the current property market? Can you give a medium-to-long-term outlook like you do for the stock index? You said before that housing prices wouldn't drop. So what should those of us who haven't bought yet do???
==
That's like asking: this ID mentioned 600635 at 5-something yuan, and you didn't buy. So what now? You tell me, what do you do?
One option is to find a buy point to enter. Another is to buy something lesser first — for housing, that means something farther out or older — and then switch to something newer and better when the opportunity comes. Or you just wait it out and buy nothing. Exactly how you proceed is your choice — they're all fine, as long as you're content.
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 16:17:20
[Anonymous] 插班生
2007-06-12 16:09:10
Followed the blogger's lead — bought 635 today, 139 tomorrow.
I think the washout is about done.
==
What you learn here is technique, not individual stock picks. If you've developed the ability, it's best to find them yourself. First, this prevents the place from turning into a giant pyramid scheme. Second, that's the only way to develop real skills.
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 16:21:32
[Anonymous] 逆天
2007-06-12 15:56:29
Question — Sister Chan and senior students, please help:
-
When identifying a hub, for example in an upward 5-minute trend, one must look for three 1-minute segments of down-up-down. But does this down-up-down also manifest on the 5-minute chart? Does it also appear as a down-up-down pattern?
==
Not necessarily — think about the microscope analogy. -
On the 1-minute chart, there are many down-up-down or up-down-up sequences. Sometimes just a few bars can form a down-up-down or up-down-up. But how do we determine if this is a hub? For example, the February 6 homework solution:
"Last time, a 5-minute top divergence created the high of 2980 points. From that position began a 5-minute level downtrend, which formed three declining hubs: the first from 1/30 10:55 to 1/30 13:45, the second from 2/01 11:05 to 2/02 11:10, the third from 2/05 10:05 to 2/05 13:30."
==
The ups and downs of line segments are very obvious — those up-and-down patterns you see on the tick chart, that's what they are. And one line segment consists of at least three segments of up-down-up or down-up-down.
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 16:23:24
[Anonymous] Night雨
2007-06-12 16:18:57
Sister was away on a trip for a few days, and the market feels like seas have turned to mulberry fields — such huge changes. Our biggest gain these days has been mindset. We kept your words firmly in mind: this is a great bull market. Because of this, we could go all-in and persist without collapsing. Last year I had two experiences of selling at the absolute bottom, just because I doubted my original choices and doubted whether China's bull market could continue. This time, I finally conquered my own fear. That's more precious than money. Thank you.
=
That's good. Mindset is cultivated through grinding. But don't turn yourself into a permanent bull either — just focus on buy and sell points, and set aside the whole bull/bear thing.
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 16:24:18
Sorry, 4:30 — this ID needs to make up for socializing obligations.
Heading out first, see you tomorrow morning.
缠中说禅 2007/6/12 15:46:25
If you can't even handle today's oscillation, then you need to go nourish your heart — buy a pig heart or cow heart and go gnaw on it at home. Today's breakout above 4015 and pullback to the 5-day MA is technically picture-perfect. This is the second step of the market's "setting things right" movement discussed earlier. The third step is the 1/2 line at 4144 points, and the fourth step is making new highs. And for Shenzhen, it's 13700 points. Now you should understand the significance of Shenzhen leading Shanghai. Shenzhen has already made new highs, so what about Shanghai? Of course, whether the script can play out act by act ultimately depends on all parties cooperating. If there's another midnight wailing session, then it'll just be another Les Misérables. As this ID said last time, this only hurts retail investors. Big money slams hard but buys back hard too — how could anything happen? Of course, whoever dares to play such midnight games now will bear historical responsibility.
On individual stocks: know that in this "setting things right" process, there's a sequence. As mentioned before, the so-called blue chips went first. Now many of these are already around new highs. As for other stocks, forming a double bottom or head-and-shoulders bottom should be fine, right? Ultimately, as long as the index is fine, the vast majority will rotate through. People are still in a state of doubt right now, so the key is to put everyone at ease through oscillation. Shenzhen poking its head up today was also a test of all parties' reactions — this psychological and policy-level testing is still necessary. Same as yesterday: if you can't read charts, watch the 5-day MA. No break means hold. That's not tiring either. Once the market truly holds above 4000, third-tier stocks will gradually become active too, especially those with themes.