Ultra-Short-Term Decision: 5-Day or 13-Day Moving Average

2008/8/21 15:23:00

No news today, so the market pulling back is perfectly natural. As for whether this pullback ultimately constitutes further bottom-testing, yesterday this ID already gave a key level: 2455 points. If it still can't hold that level tomorrow, further probing downward is only to be expected.

Of course, in actual operations, there's no need to care about this level, because it's often a bit late. This ID's recent courses specifically cover how to arrange short-term operations, providing the most efficient methods. This time, the top divergence of the first segment was extremely clear. Of course, due to T+1, in practice you may not actually be able to sell at the first sell point. As previously discussed, when the market opens with a sharp gap-down, the first sub-level pullback that fails to break the top or shows consolidation divergence will constitute the best second sell point. This type of sell point is often the best escape point in sudden events. Veterans here all know — before the market opened during 530 last year, this ID specifically emphasized watching for the second sell point. After exiting at that point, though it wasn't the absolute top, it at least avoided over 95% of the subsequent decline. That's already the best possible outcome in a sudden event.

Of course, those whose theoretical level isn't sufficient should just watch the moving averages. Earlier there was a specific discussion on the level system of moving averages. This time it was textbook resistance at the 13-day moving average — meaning a level-2 force. Whether it can upgrade to level 3 or higher depends on the 13-day line. As for the 5-day moving average, it's the lifeline for ultra-short-term trading. Once effectively broken, what should happen — even a Zhang-so-and-so would know. Given how brilliantly astute you all are, no need to waste words.

Tomorrow is the last day for betting on news, and next week is the final week for certain people to thoroughly reflect. If everything falls flat, wouldn't you say the market has to be bearish? Wouldn't a third sell point be perfectly natural? Having the market sponsor a few hands and feet for the Paralympics — isn't that very Zhang-so-and-so-like?

As for those who can't even tell strokes from line segments and dare to talk about divergence on line segments — go study humbly. Having this ID — someone already sentenced to stage-four terminal illness — still posting stroke and line segment charts every day: do you have the nerve? This ID doesn't even have the nerve. Because the skill is your own. If you don't hone it yourself, and this ID has some mishap, where will you go to find a sparring partner?

This ID can assert: if this ID has some mishap, the theory from this ID will be distorted beyond recognition, with 2-to-the-Zhang-so-and-so-th-power variants. In the end, if 5 people can truly be forged into steel warriors through market practice, this ID will smile in the grave. Just like that extraordinary person — among their generation learning the ancestral secret arts together, 9 people total, and only they persisted and were able to freely apply it all. Perhaps many things in this world are simply destiny — let's say no more.

This ID won't die just yet — at least not until certain people bow their heads. If they won't bow this time, the day will come, but by then it probably won't be a voluntary bow. There won't be any saving face — shoes, socks, spittle and the like flying over in Zhang-so-and-so-to-the-Zhang-so-and-so-th-power fashion, definitely more amusing than the footprints left by the bills raining from the sky that certain day.

Signing off first, see you later.