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The Decisive Battle on Schedule — Bulls Crumble at First Blow

2007/11/8 22:21:05

Sorry for being back late. Let me make up the market analysis.

Yesterday I said the decisive battle was at its tipping point, with results by Monday at the latest. The result: the bulls collapsed at first contact—extremely disappointing. This confirms one of this ID's assertions: the bears are the impatient ones. And yesterday, the 5-month moving average ambush script this ID wrote for the bulls—whether it turned out as this ID feared: "These foolish bulls probably can't even plagiarize properly, and in the end, they'll likely bid farewell to the 5-month moving average in a chaotic night"—will soon have its answer too.

A few days ago, some bulls were still clamoring, demanding to know: Didn't you say there would be a drop of at least 1,000 points? Why hasn't it happened yet? Well, this task assigned by this ID admittedly hasn't been quite completed—this ID is also quite dissatisfied with the actors' performances—so let's keep working at it. Don't be impatient. Sit tight on your little stools, don't run around. Currently, the 1,000 points have only been 800 points fulfilled. Bear actors, bull actors—work harder! Cheer up!

Now, the 5462 to 5555 point neckline area will be the most critical zone for a medium-term pullback. If the market can't retake it, then the decline will persist until this downward karma is exhausted. This ID has never said there's no room beyond 1,000 points—this ID only said that without 1,000 points of downside, the short-selling wouldn't be satisfying enough, lacking room, not fun enough. So after reaching this modest 1,000-point target, we can still aim for higher modernization goals—is that a problem?

Those who are upset today basically fall into two categories. First, the "geniuses"—people who think they're geniuses, capable of short-term trading, naturally gifted. This ID says: know yourself, and then be calm, and then be calmer still. Know what? Know whether you're actually a genius. A true genius doesn't care about any moving averages, but if you're not one, don't exhaust yourself. Didn't this ID already offer all non-geniuses the best option long ago: the little stool? Second, the "super geniuses." These people take pride in being trapped, proudly declaring that bull markets mean going medium-to-long term, holding positions. Even if a stock drops from 300 to 3, they'll hold, they'll go long-term. For such super geniuses, this ID has nothing to say. Some people like elevators—going up and down, enjoying the ride—this ID has no objections at all. Enjoy it slowly; your time to feel good will come again.

Tomorrow and Monday will tell whether the 5-month MA ambush works and whether the ambush is effective. If this ID were running it, this ID would naturally have confidence. But now, this ID isn't playing the bull side—unlike back at 3600 points—this ID doesn't want to guarantee anything for anyone.

Now, the short-term question for the bulls is whether this breakdown can be quickly pulled back—otherwise, once the neckline break is confirmed, then according to the measured decline of a double top, where do you think it should go?

This ID really wanted to mercifully comfort those who suffered today, but this ID ultimately decided not to, because that would only harm people. The market is never merciful, and this ID already said everything that needed saying long ago. Since today's sufferers are all geniuses big and small, go ahead then—"Plum blossoms' fragrance comes from bitter cold"—that's probably what geniuses love to do.

If you want to actually learn something, please review this ID's post:
Analysis of Trends Under the Capital-Policy Game in Late 2007 2007-09-17 00:41:48
If you can learn something from it, this ID thinks there's no need to learn from the plum blossoms. In the stock market, there's no need to study plum blossoms or endure bitter cold—the stock market only needs wisdom.

For those with strong skills, watch for the divergence in the 1-minute decline starting from 6004 points—a big rebound will follow. For those with lesser skills, continue sitting on your little stools.

Signing off. Goodbye.