Take a Step Back and the Sea and Sky Open Wide
2008/9/1 15:56:14
Regarding the latest developments with this ID's sciatic nerve, there's an appendix below. Coming to this ID's place, you must first have the most basic scientific spirit. If you can't even achieve a scientific spirit, how can you break through science to enter a higher realm? At this ID's place, one is one and two is two — only actual results matter.
As for the stock market, those betting on weekend news are disappointed once again — hence today's market action naturally followed. Regarding policy news, don't be anxious. Consider the efficiency of those big shots — even if they genuinely want to do something, can it really happen quickly? Take a step back and the sea and sky open wide — there's nothing wrong with that.
From a purely technical perspective, the analysis has already been clearly laid out: for any significant rally to materialize, a bottom fractal must first appear on the monthly chart. If early this month breaks below last month's low, it's not the end of the world — on the contrary, it would make the bottom fractal more powerful. Whether the rally comes one month earlier or later doesn't really matter much. Think about it: if this month doesn't break the low and a fractal is forced, then this month would need a long bullish candle. Place it on the chart and see — it just doesn't look comfortable or solid. Forcing the move up now, the probability of creating an engulfing relationship is even greater, which would push the real bottom fractal even further into the future. So sometimes, being in a rush is not a good thing.
From a purely aesthetic perspective, a bottom in October would be the most beautiful, because it would correspond precisely to a one-year cycle — top and bottom forming one perfect cycle. Of course, September would also work, since cycles can be off by a month or two. From this angle, a drop and break early in the month is actually great news for the long-term trend. Of course, this is only from an aesthetic viewpoint. As for what the market actually chooses — the market decides. In actual operations, you can completely ignore these considerations.
This afternoon a friend called, saying he'd taken the helm of a magazine belonging to one of the most important central-level economic management departments — the kind of magazine read by every major state-owned enterprise and major corporation head. He hopes this ID will write something for them. This ID has better channels, and originally had no interest in this. On second thought, it might serve some purpose. Writing specially for it is out of the question, but repurposing some old material with modifications should work. If you all have any good ideas, feel free to share. This ID made it clear to him — he also knows this ID rarely writes for any magazine. Even the occasional piece done to amplify influence was just for fun. So the collaboration with him can't be fixed. This ID also won't take his payment. Just send him things when something comes to mind; if he can use it, great; if not, forget it. More natural that way.
He specifically asked about this ID's view on the adjustment, because he knows that after this ID went short at 6100, this ID has had no interest in this market. So he asked how much longer the adjustment would last. Since he's a friend, I spoke plainly. If we're truly starting over, that's an N-years-later matter. The only thing worth waiting for now is the medium-grade pullback rally generated after the MACD returns to the zero axis on the monthly chart. That time is approaching soon. At worst, wait for months 17-18, meaning around March-April next year; if less severe, around October. This depends on cycle dynamics. As for which it will be, the key lies in the regulators' actions. If they keep dragging their feet, then let it be severe. Everything is the convergence of causes and conditions — there's nothing that currently dictates how the market must behave.
What's discussed above is the big-picture trend. As for weekly-level and below trends, there's even less to analyze. Everything has been stated very clearly before. No need to predict anything — look at the chart, it tells you everything.
Alright, for friends who care about this ID's sciatic nerve, please read on.
The healer's treatment was quite effective, but the effect didn't sustain to a degree satisfactory to this ID. There's an objective factor here: the hotel bed is too soft. This ID requested a wooden plank bed, and was told they don't have one. Dizzying. After any treatment, sleeping on that bed would probably cause a relapse. Perhaps this ID will have to sleep on the floor. Properly arranged on the floor, it might be better.
Last night was quite painful. Two injections didn't even work. In the end, this ID solved the problem personally — sealed the acupuncture points with something, and had a peaceful night. Of course, the healer's work in realigning certain things was also critical — otherwise this ID's own techniques couldn't have been applied. To summarize: after the healer's treatment, first, I didn't sleep on the proper bed; second, the major shopping trip was overly exhausting, which shifted the position that had just been corrected back out of place. So this time, this ID's own methods will be used to maintain control, and the healer will come back in two days to do the final treatment.
As for tonight — heaven knows. But this ID has already begun to enjoy this game: how to deal with this problem in the present moment and earn a night of peaceful sleep. What a delightful challenge! Current condition is fine — let's see how tonight goes.