3613 Points Becomes A Key Mid-to-Short-Term Level

2008/4/7 15:21:25

After the market broke through the short-term key position of 3462 points today, it was smooth sailing—the 60-minute chart extended an upward stroke for the first time in N months, clearly demonstrating the market's short-term strength.

Friday's analysis specifically pointed out that if there was no news over the weekend while the market's reaction wasn't excessive, it would instead prove that the market truly has potential. Today's movement confirmed exactly this. On individual stocks, non-ferrous metals led by Zhonglü continue their stubborn runs, but note that sectors launched this time generally entered adjustment after rebounding 20–30%, such as real estate and financials—whether non-ferrous metals can change this pattern remains questionable for now.

Now, 3613 points has become the medium-to-short-term key position, because whether this position is broken determines whether the market can extend an upward stroke on the daily chart. And today's movement, having already broken through 3555 points, makes it extremely likely that a bottom fractal will form on the weekly chart, unless a break below the bottom occurs within this week. Therefore, in the medium term, the probability of the year's biggest rally—which we've been predicting all along—is growing ever larger.

Of course, the safest approach is still to take it step by step. As long as 3613 points remains unbreached on the upside attack, you can first adjust your positions accordingly to prepare for subsequent volatile movements.

Although this ID made clear early on that a medium-term bottom would appear around 3424 points, now that it's actually playing out, we should instead stay calm. Don't leave any regrets in your operations. Moreover, if this is truly a medium-term bottom, there will inevitably be shakeouts and oscillations before a real breakout, so you must operate strictly by the chart.

Last week's issue was only related to the 60-minute bottom fractal at 3396 points—after the breakout, it extended into a stroke. Such a classic case deserves thorough study.

Signing off. Goodbye.