Abandon the Index—A World of Ice and Fire.

2007/12/17 15:30:15

Today did not form a daily bottom fractal—it merely created a textbook inclusion relationship. Since it's close to Friday's low, as long as tomorrow goes lower than Friday, it means the downward stroke from 5209 must continue to extend.

Actually, there's no need to wait until the close to know the bottom fractal couldn't form. To form a bottom fractal, the first requirement is to exceed Friday's high. The market opened with a gap down today, so as long as it didn't go positive, no matter what happened in between, you could go back to sleep. And if the bottom fractal can't even form, that's naturally also a go-back-to-sleep situation.

However, that's only speaking of the broader market. On the individual stock front, it's a world of ice and fire. This ID has said before: some stocks with genuine catalysts won't pay any attention to the broader market's trend. The more directionless the market is, the more opportunity it gives certain stocks to perform. Market makers need some marketing savvy too—with nearly 2,000 stocks now, to make an impression you naturally need some tricks. Going against the trend is often the most economical approach. With so much capital around, there's no shortage of masochists who chase highs. Those who dare to perform now won't go unrewarded.

Since on the weekly chart the weekly bottom fractal hasn't been confirmed, and the daily bottom fractal hasn't even been formed, the next step is first waiting for the daily bottom fractal to form—that's the prerequisite. Of course, if the weekly bottom fractal ultimately fails to confirm, the market will undeniably have to face another breakdown. An inevitable fact is this: for the market to carve out an intermediate-level bottom, a necessary prerequisite is weekly bottom fractal confirmation. If it can't be confirmed at this level, it will step down to the next level and form and confirm there—this is a technical necessity.

From the perspective of hub oscillation around the 5010 area, there's now a massive threat of a third-type sell point forming. Once a third-type sell point is confirmed, a new market low is unavoidable. Therefore, for the bulls, the next few days are the only window to make an effort—otherwise, they will inevitably face the reality of losing another front.

Of course, for someone like this ID, I couldn't care less about some pathetic index. Abandon the index, play the great game of ice and fire—this isn't such a bad thing. Of course, if the market drops too hard, one occasionally needs to take shelter from the storm. But one thing is certain: next year's business must be done. If business must be done, preparations start at year-end—otherwise, how do you guarantee next year's turnover?

Heading out now, goodbye.