Living at Others' Mercy Is Never Easy
2008/1/30 15:23:08
What the title refers to, everyone knows perfectly well. Today's news triggered a short-term high, then a reversal selloff. Since the interest rate cut announcement hasn't come out yet, end-of-day gamblers betting on news showed up again—just another tedious episode in the days of living at the mercy of others' moods.
Looking at stocks like 600737 and 600078, does it move you a bit? This world needs people who don't live at others' mercy. But this is a matter of combined forces—having just a few such people isn't enough to make a difference. If everyone else becomes someone who watches others' faces, then this market still belongs to others. Ultimately, those who refuse to watch others' faces might just go do something else where they don't have to.
To be honest, this ID no longer has the same interest as last time in catching falling rocks. For this year's market, this ID already gave a clear positioning last year: go all-in on thematic stocks, ignore the index—that's why there have been stocks hitting new highs after the index dropped over 1,000 points.
But the index will still rise. In that outlook, this ID gave this year's rhythm as "rise–suppress–big rise–big suppress." So the bulls will still get their bread—but if the bulls keep watching others' faces without any self-spirit, then this ID would rather have gotten the rhythm wrong.
Around the time PetroChina and such make their moves, a turning point may emerge—and that time has now arrived. But this requires combined forces. This ID honestly has no interest in stirring up big plays anymore—just tending to my own little plot of land. But making an appeal is always possible—combined forces require everyone to join in.
Frankly speaking, this ID would rather see A-shares drop to 2500 points than not see America go completely bankrupt. Having America relive 1987—that's what this ID would most love to see.
But it must be said clearly: the Americans will use every dirty trick to smooth things over this time. The key is, don't be the fool who pays the bill for the Americans.
The market is simple: it's purely news-driven now. Tomorrow America will cut rates, and this side will get excited again. But this excitement isn't self-driven—being self-driven hasn't found a suitable excuse yet.
Technically, the oscillation around the 4400-point hub is gradually expanding toward the 5-minute level. The movement is straightforward—without a third-type buy point from this hub, the upward impulse is just an impulse.
On 580989, as previously stated, oscillation amplitude has decreased but oscillation opportunities remain plentiful. Whether the 0.6 hub's power is textbook enough—anyone with eyes can see by now.
The first test of the annual line—barring surprises—will be a happy ending, just as said at year-end. The key question is, after this happy ending, if there's no self-awareness, the ultimate result can only be tragedy.
Signing off. Goodbye.
缠中说禅 2008/1/30 15:29:29
Leaving a footprint. Learning!