Teaching You to Trade Stocks 11: Without Knowing How to Kiss, There Can Be No Climax!
2006/11/29 12:00:00
To identify "premature ejaculators," you must select three independent systems. One of the most commonly used is the so-called technical analysis toolkit. Pure technical analysis alone won't work, and pure non-technical analysis alone won't work either. Technical analysis tools can only achieve their full power when they're part of a three-independent-system framework.
The core idea of technical analysis is classification — a point that almost everyone who does technical analysis fails to understand. When a technical indicator issues a buy signal, the technical analyst treats it as if God has given a hint. With such a mindset, it's nearly impossible for any technical analyst to achieve great success. Technical indicators merely perform a complete classification of all possible market movements. Why are technical analysts all geniuses in hindsight but go limp when it's time to act? This is precisely the reason.
There's too much to say about technical analysis — this indicator and that indicator, how to apply them. The key is the classification problem discussed above. Any technical indicator merely classifies the market completely from that indicator's perspective and points out what's playable and what's not playable. As for whether the conditions corresponding to this indicator are 100% reflected in actual price movements — the answer is certainly no. Otherwise, everyone could just trade according to this indicator, and who would lose money? However, if you examine technical indicators purely from the standpoint of classification, then technical indicators will unleash their maximum power.
The simplest yet most practical technical indicator system is the so-called moving average system. The moving average system is obviously not a very precise system — there are too many fakeouts. If you buy whenever price breaks above a certain moving average and sell when it breaks below, your success rate will definitely not be high, especially when that moving average is short-term. What's truly useful is the moving average system — that is, a technical evaluation system composed of several moving averages representing short, medium, and long-term trends. Note: any technical indicator or system is essentially an evaluation system that tells you the strength or weakness of the evaluated object under that system's standards. For example, with a single 5-day moving average, standing above it means that using the 5-day moving average to classify all market situations, the current situation of being above the 5-day MA indicates strength. However, while standing above the 5-day MA, price might be below the 10-day MA. Under the 10-day MA system's evaluation, this situation would be weakness. So is the corresponding trend strong or weak?
In fact, strength and weakness are all relative — what matters is the standard by which you enter. For ultra-ultra-short-term traders, showing strength on a 1-minute chart is enough to enter, especially under T+0 conditions where such operations are perfectly normal. But for large funds, even 5-day strength on the daily chart isn't enough to pique their interest. The primary selection criteria for any technical indicator system's application are always related to the capital size and operational timeframe involved. Without these considerations, any further discussion is meaningless. Therefore, everyone should consider how to select appropriate parameters based on their own actual circumstances. Once you understand the underlying principles, the application is entirely up to your own judgment.
With moving average systems, there are inevitably questions about the relationships between the various moving averages. The relationship between any two moving averages is essentially a matter of "kissing." Using the kissing standard, the corresponding relationships can be completely classified: flying kiss, lip kiss, and wet kiss. Think of the short-term moving average as the queen and the long-term moving average as the gigolo. Then "male-on-top" signifies a bear market, while "female-on-top" signifies a bull market. To make money, you want more "female-on-top" positions.
Flying kiss: The short-term moving average briefly flattens, then continues in its original trend direction.
Lip kiss: The short-term moving average approaches the long-term moving average without breaking below or above it, then continues in its original trend direction.
Wet kiss: The short-term moving average breaks below or above the long-term moving average, sometimes even entangling repeatedly, intertwined like lovers.
Flying kisses occur relatively rarely — generally only when the trend is particularly strong. However, excessively intense trends can't last long, so subsequent oscillation often follows. Lip kisses are the most commonly seen pattern during any basic trend process, especially during "male-on-top" situations where it's almost always this pattern. Once a lip kiss bounce occurs in a bear market, the rebound is basically over. In "female-on-top" situations, the probability of an adjustment ending is also quite high, though you must guard against a lip kiss evolving into a wet kiss. Wet kisses — these are commonly seen during significant corrections after a trend, and also when trends are reversing. This is especially true during "male-on-top" situations: if short, medium, and long-term moving averages all come together for an NP wet kiss, such a pornographic AV scene often signals that a major trend reversal is imminent — the skies are about to change, and "male-on-top" will become "female-on-top."
Note: trend reversals almost always have a high probability of being triggered by wet kisses. There are two situations here: one is a wet kiss followed by one big climax in the original trend direction, creating a trap, then reversing; the other is repeated wet kisses constructing a reversal-type box, after which the climax signals the change in position. In "male-on-top" situations, once a wet kiss appears, pay close attention, especially if this wet kiss comes after a long-term "male-on-top" period — pay even more attention. The subsequent drop is often an excellent entry opportunity, because the probability of it being a bear trap is enormous. I must note: this does not apply to the first wet kiss after a trend is formed. But after a wet kiss, there must be a climax — the only difference is the position. The key judgment is about the position, not whether a climax will occur.
Know how to kiss, and there will be climax. If you can't even kiss, how can there be any climax?
Replies
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:05:27
Regarding this kissing concept, yesterday's noon guidance remains valid:
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán
2006-11-28 12:15:13
Today's price action is very normal. The key remains the 5-day line that's been emphasized these two days. Currently, the most prudent path would be for the 5-day and 10-day moving averages to have a kissing foreplay session, then another climax. But I must point out again: after this climax, the ensuing refractory period will be longer than this one.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:12:45
[Anonymous] 打死你我也不说
2006-11-29 12:11:39
Number Lady wrote in a hurry — there are typos.
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Thanks. Been a bit busy lately. Had social engagements all yesterday. This was rushed out in the half hour right after market close. Will revise it later.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:14:26
[Anonymous] MM
2006-11-29 12:11:45
狂歌
"与天其时，天与其时" = "与天其时，天与其时" + "天与其时，与天其时"
This is a parallel relationship. If you don't understand even this, what kind of Chinese have you been studying?
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Your understanding is slightly better, but still not right.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:30:56
[Anonymous] 打死你我也不说
2006-11-29 12:16:53
狂歌, I'm not being mean, but you don't even understand basic facts. No one violated any rules in the 327 Treasury Bond incident — there simply weren't any applicable regulations at the time.
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At that time they could even nullify completed trades — that was a miracle in itself.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:33:44
[Anonymous] 吻得心动
2006-11-29 12:12:28
Could the host look at whether 580002 and 580009 can be entered now? Thanks!
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Warrants can be entered every day — there are opportunities every day. The key is whether you have the skill. 580002's oscillation range keeps narrowing, with continuous wet kisses — the climax is approaching. Focus on the position first.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:38:10
[Anonymous] 河东蝉林听禅音
2006-11-29 12:20:00
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Your stocks all have mid-term catch-up potential. Just wait. As for books, just read what's here. Other books have fundamentally wrong approaches. Get your basic framework right first, then it's not too late to read them.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:41:18
[Anonymous] 数女粉丝
2006-11-29 12:39:53
Brilliantly written. Continuously learning.
Many thanks, Number Lady!
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The key is to compare these concepts against actual charts yourself. What's presented here are concepts — they must be internalized into your own intuition to be of any use.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:55:29
Ren Woxing
2006-11-29 12:43:15
Host, please look at whether 030002 still has upward momentum.
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The underlying stock is challenging its previous high. Once successful, the upside space completely opens. For now, hold patiently and observe carefully. As long as the 5-day line isn't broken, there's hope for success.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:57:30
Ren Woxing
2006-11-29 12:45:17
600639 — will real estate stocks continue to rise?
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Don't ask "will it continue to rise" — that's a wrong question. What you should determine is: it's currently in an uptrend, and that's sufficient.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:58:08
Watching the market now. Heading out. See you.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:59:20
[Anonymous] 数女粉丝
2006-11-29 12:57:45
Thank you for the guidance.
For nearly half a year now, I've been visiting your blog almost daily, learning a great deal.
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Thanks. Heading out now. See you.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 15:14:38
This morning at the open, I suggested that those with good skills select non-declining stocks for opportunities, and those with weaker skills should watch the 5-day line. Generally speaking, for those with weaker skills, this type of oscillation just means riding the waves up and down for the experience. Skilled traders — this is a great opportunity for playing short-term spreads to lower costs or swapping stocks.
The current situation is simple: it's about whether the 5-day line can stabilize. If it does, the market will push for another wave. So tomorrow's oscillation is still inevitable. Strong stocks will consolidate at the 5-day line, average stocks will fluctuate around the 5-day line, and weak stocks will take another dive to scare people.
But for individual stocks, it doesn't matter what the market does. The next wave is one where individual stocks broadly perform — many that didn't move much before will need to put on a show. In fact, during this adjustment, many stocks made new highs. Individual stocks matter far more than the index.
If you must watch an index, watch the Shenzhen Component Index — it's more sensitive and effective than Shanghai's.
As for the Shanghai index, whether the 5-day and 10-day lines lip-kiss or wet-kiss doesn't actually matter much. But the adjustment after the next push higher will be much larger in scale — I've said this repeatedly.
From the perspective of a healthy market, this ID's advice to the market is: let the Shenzhen Component Index break through its historical high of 6103 first, then Shanghai follows, and adjust after the breakout — that would be healthier. Not sure if the market is interested in listening to this ID's opinion.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 15:19:14
[Anonymous] 小屁孩
2006-11-29 15:01:22
Hello blogger. Yesterday I bought 600500 and got trapped. In pain. Please analyze. Thanks. Also, it has convertible bonds — should I subscribe?
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Get in the habit of buying during the kissing-and-bottoming process — risk is smallest then. Mid-term, no issues. Short-term, you bought poorly, so just ride out the trap and consider it a lesson in hygiene.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 15:23:15
[Anonymous] 老豆
2006-11-29 14:24:16
Hello Number Lady, could you look at 600262, 000301, 600082 for me? Thanks in advance.
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Mid-term, all fine. Be patient. In the market, don't get in the habit of asking "why?" Instead, get in the habit of asking "what is it now, and what does it match?" If it matches the hold criteria, hold. If it matches the sell criteria, sell. That simple.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 15:27:12
[Anonymous] yy
2006-11-29 15:12:30
Hello blogger, could you please analyze the short-term outlook for 600498?
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Today it just touched the descending resistance line. Once it breaks through, the upside opens up. Key is watching volume accumulation. Mid-term, no issues. Tech stocks will inevitably perform.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 15:33:18
[Anonymous] 青皮六
2006-11-29 15:27:39
A line of poetry for the header image: "The flower path has never been swept for a visitor; the gate swings open for you today for the first time."
May I ask the Zen Mistress — will bank stocks basically complete their adjustment before December 11th?
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Honestly, a longer adjustment would be healthier. Let this wave be for other stocks to perform. Let the bank stocks do ascending triangle or flag consolidation here — that's better for the mid-term market outlook. As I said yesterday, the key right now is China Merchants Bank. It was first to break through its all-time high. Its trend is the market's wind vane.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 15:37:07
[Anonymous] Night雨
2006-11-29 15:23:58
Pretty big sis, will my 580004 have a climax, or has it already prematurely ejaculated? My cost basis is 2.34. Been waiting days and its climax won't come. The underlying stocks are doing great though.
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You bought at a bad position — being jerked around is only natural. For box-pattern movements, always buy at the bottom of the box — stop-losses are simpler that way too. Currently waiting for the moving average system to converge. Be patient.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 15:37:47
[Anonymous] 老豆
2006-11-29 15:24:14
Hello Number Lady, could you look at 600262, 000301, 600082 for me? Thanks in advance.
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Already answered above.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 15:51:05
[Anonymous] 痒痒
2006-11-29 15:32:52
Could the blogger please analyze the trend for 600177? Thanks!
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This stock was previously hyped too much — chips are too scattered, which is why the price action is especially choppy. Mid-term, it will perform. Short-term resistance at 6.5 yuan. If that breaks, the upside opens.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 15:55:54
Feng Dun
2006-11-29 15:33:47
Host, please look at 600348.
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It will perform. Just wait.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 15:56:38
That's it for today. Have social engagements tonight. Heading out. See you.
缠中说禅 2006/11/30 9:16:38
[Anonymous] 缠粉
2006-11-29 17:25:45
Sis Chan, entered 水井坊 (Shuijingfang) at 9.7. Can I continue holding?
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Hasn't even broken the 5-day line — strongest possible trend. Of course hold.
缠中说禅 2006/11/30 9:18:27
[Anonymous] 小迷糊
2006-11-30 08:49:38
Number Lady sis, if the RMB continues to appreciate and the exchange rate against USD breaks through 1:6, which stocks would benefit? I'm not thinking clearly about it. Please advise. Thanks.
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Banks, real estate, airlines, etc. But these are just the catalysts. Everything benefits, because the index then has the most solid reason for continued surges. Japan, Taiwan, and others all had their historic mega-bull markets emerge from exactly this.
缠中说禅 2006/11/30 9:19:47
[Anonymous] 湖边人家
2006-11-29 22:33:16
I'd like to ask Number Lady sis — I've held 000007 for over half a year. The index has gone up so much, but it just won't move. Should I swap stocks or continue holding? Thanks.
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Third-tier stock. Once second-tier stocks finish rising, its turn will come.
缠中说禅 2006/11/30 9:21:06
[Anonymous] 缠粉
2006-11-29 21:25:20
Sis, "I must note: this does not apply to the first wet kiss after a trend is formed."
How should I understand this line??? What is a trend?
[Anonymous] yf
2006-11-30 04:47:40
I get what those lines are about now! But what about MACD? I asked someone before and they said: "Listen for thunder in silence." Left me feeling very embarrassed. Haha.
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These topics will all be covered below. Please be patient.
缠中说禅 2006/11/30 12:04:57
Please post questions in the newest post. Otherwise I can't keep up. Thanks.
缠中说禅 2006/11/30 12:13:22
Will try to answer those already posted here in the new post. Please go check there.
缠中说禅 2006/11/30 12:58:51
[Anonymous] 老无用
2006-11-30 12:53:04
May I ask the host about the trend for 000851? Thanks.
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As long as the 30-day moving average isn't effectively broken, you should maintain your mid-term hold — unless acceleration with heavy volume appears.
缠中说禅 2006/11/29 12:03:27
The following assessment remains valid:
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán 2006-11-29 09:36:47
The market chose the wet kiss path under the influence of external markets. Short-term sharp decline — select stocks that aren't falling. Opportunities exist. Those with weaker technical skills should just wait until the repeatedly emphasized 5-day line has stabilized before acting.