The Biggest Bubble Is Certain Chinese People!
2007/1/25 11:58:51
Today, some old American guy's rubbish remarks caused violent swings in the stock market, writing the most disgraceful chapter in China's financial history. Whether China's financial market has a bubble is a question worth researching—regardless of the answer—but those Chinese people who frantically dumped stocks upon hearing an American old man's nonsense are definitely the biggest bubble of all.
Let me ask: whether stocks have a bubble—don't you have a brain of your own? You need to listen to American hogwash? If there's a bubble, did it only appear today? Was there none yesterday? Was there no bubble when ICBC was at 6.70 yuan, but now there's a bubble at 5.30? Where was the American old man when it was at 6.70? Where were these bubbly Chinese people? China's greatest enemies have never come from outside. Why is China the world's greatest producer of traitor-like specimens?
From a purely technical standpoint, a retest today had a 99% probability anyway. According to this ID's theory, trends must complete themselves, and on the short term, yesterday clearly showed a bit of divergence, so retesting the lows of the past two days to confirm the validity of the 2870 breakout is perfectly normal—all within the plan. What's most abnormal is that some Chinese people lost their composure because of one American old man's hogwash. Shameful!
Fine then—let's discuss whether ICBC has a bubble. First, any stock at all times exists between bubble and non-bubble, because the future is uncertain and can only be anticipated. Anticipation means uncertainty—that's the very allure of stocks. The American old man used Hollywood theatrics, dramatically performing, then criticized ICBC's service for being this and that. Indeed, ICBC's service has issues, but ICBC's service has been continuously improving. And from another angle, if ICBC can already produce its current earnings with such problematic service, once that service improves, won't its earnings become even more promising? TVs and automobiles—the story of beating the foreigners—why can't it happen with ICBC? A nation of 1.3 billion people producing the world's largest bank—what's so impossible about that? Moreover, from a professional standpoint, ICBC's current earnings are achieved within a narrow scope. Many business lines that international banks handle, ICBC simply hasn't touched yet, and those lines often carry the highest profit potential. This guarantees ICBC's future rapid growth, as these previously untouched businesses will gradually become ICBC's profit engines. As for ICBC's network, policy, and brand advantages—those are irreplicable resources. The index-weight premium is actually a minor matter by comparison. ICBC's current price is at least a stable medium-term hub, without any doubt. During this period, fluctuations up and down around this hub are natural. For ICBC to embark on a new leg, it must break through this hub, which requires new catalysts—such as the return of China Construction Bank, index futures, and most importantly, the launch of a core new business line. This ID believes the miracles that happened with TVs and automobiles will definitely be repeated with ICBC and other Chinese banks. The rise of Chinese finance is the hallmark of China's rise, because in today's world—a world of capital—without financial strength, national strength is nothing but empty talk.
From a pure trading standpoint, this ID long ago gave timely reminders about the strategic shift toward second- and third-tier stocks. But ICBC and other index-controlling instruments must not fall into American hands—this is a matter of principle. ICBC can have no rally, can continue consolidating around its current level, but anyone trying to smash ICBC down to scoop up cheap shares—no way. This ID won't stand for it!
This ID's strategy today is simple: for stocks with chaotic price action, wash them along with the trend—let the traitor elements lose everything and get out. For stocks with stable action and few traitors, let them rally. What China most needs right now is to pop the bubble of garbage with traitor DNA that loves licking Americans' backsides! What China needs is a spine of steel, not bubble knees!
Supplementary Special Statement:
This ID currently has essentially no ICBC position. Since the beginning of the year, I've done large-scale swaps into second- and third-tier stocks. Everyone here can attest that this ID has repeatedly emphasized second- and third-tier stocks on multiple occasions. Yesterday's post even listed the five main sectors of this strategic rotation: military industry, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, environmental protection, and public utilities. Moreover, today these stocks didn't drop at all—some even hit the limit-up, and of course that has something to do with this ID's efforts. So this ID's discussion of ICBC is entirely unrelated to personal interest. But this ID simply cannot stand seeing Chinese people kowtowing to Americans.
On the medium-term market trajectory, this ID has long indicated that the worst case is forming a weekly-level Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán trend hub here. The first wave of this bull market has not yet completed—that is, the component-stock rally will continue after adjustment. This is beyond doubt. It's just that second- and third-tier component stocks offer more opportunity. Of course, first-tier stocks still have potential—they just need to wait for the right catalyst.
This grand bull market will absolutely not end before the third wave's great restructuring rally appears—this is absolutely certain. Even if a weekly hub oscillation occurs, individual stock opportunities will keep emerging. ICBC may have no rally, but individual stocks won't be without rallies. Don't believe it? Just watch. Today, this ID's agriculture stocks, environmental stocks, public utility stocks, and military stocks all hit new highs—these are the vanguard!
For everyone's attention: this ID has been consistently ultra-bullish since June 2005. The most famous article was "Classic Replay: G-Shares Are the G-Spot—The Principles of the Market and the Principles of Sex Are the Same". Everyone here should have read it. This ID is currently neither bull nor bear—please don't misunderstand. What to do with a hub expansion has one and only one theoretical basis, unrelated to this ID's personal preferences. But this ID's conclusion is clear: the first wave of the bull market isn't over. This view hasn't changed. Weekly hub oscillation doesn't change this conclusion.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 15:27:08
Today's price action—you all saw it—was simply a process of traitors panic-selling. Technically it's simple: it evolved into a complex adjustment. This is perfectly normal technically; the reasoning was already explained. After a triangle, what typically follows is the final segment, but this is only a correction triggered by 30-minute-level divergence. Oscillation around the hub level at the 2700 area is all there is to it.
On the individual stock front, it remains the second/third-tier stocks—those insensitive to the index—that will continue to perform. The key is individual stocks, not the index.
Washing out the traitors along with the trend, while not giving foreigners a chance to buy cheap—that is the paramount task right now.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 15:35:48
[Anonymous] 面甲
2007-01-25 15:24:13
Sister Chan is in a bad mood today—everyone be careful with your questions.
The Shanghai 60-minute divergence has been confirmed. Next important level: 2618.
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This ID is not in a bad mood at all. The point is that some Chinese people just love licking foreigners—so tiresome. This adjustment was expected all along, but people panicking over a few words from a foreigner is exactly why Japan was able to suppress China for so many years. This ID had a great time today—riding the ups and downs—these are the best opportunities for short-term trading, and conveniently washed the plates clean. Everything according to technical analysis—can't go wrong.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 15:38:21
[Anonymous] 除奸
2007-01-25 15:35:19
Under these circumstances, what should I do with stocks I'm stuck in?
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First ask yourself why you're stuck—did you chase highs? Second, if the stocks are good ones, there are plenty of opportunities during adjustments. You can use short-term trades to lower your cost. For technically skilled traders, adjustments are the best money-making opportunities, because there are many more round trips.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 15:46:53
[Anonymous] 摄影之友
2007-01-25 15:41:25
Boss, glad you're not in a bad mood! Hehe!~~~
Isn't this precisely the validation of what you said yesterday: trading space for time!~~~~
Thank you!!!
===
Shanghai hasn't even filled the gap yet. This 60-minute divergence was warned about well in advance. This ID was just displeased with the way it happened—what's this even about? But it's a process; gradually changing Chinese people's worship-the-foreign mentality is necessary. This is achieved through constant washing/rallying. The stock market speaks through capital. Give it a thorough wash today, but good stocks won't give you a chance to buy at low prices. The key is the stock itself.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 15:52:55
[Anonymous] wjy885
2007-01-25 15:44:02
I bought 000915 today but didn't time my entry well. It went green in the afternoon—I thought Sister Chan was pushing it. But it's no big deal. Support the motherland, support the stock market, support Sister Chan!!!
==
Wrong—don't buy stocks for anyone's sake. This ID doesn't need anyone's support either. Buy at buy points—think about whether your buy point is truly a buy point. In the market, you must learn to swing trade. Sometimes the back-and-forth is just to lower costs and wash the plates—never develop the habit of chasing highs.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 15:59:40
Attention everyone—
Get accustomed to handling all situations. Everything boils down to: sell at high divergence, buy at low divergence. Don't predict. If you hold stocks, enter at short-term buy points and exit at short-term sell points—this is how you lower costs.
In the market, cost is the most critical thing. As long as costs keep declining, you're invincible. During adjustments, you can be like a fish in water—but the prerequisite is mastering the technique first.
We can fight the foreigners, but we can't be reckless. You must have patience. Defeating the foreigners and the traitors won't happen in a day. Choose good stocks, continuously lower your cost, and all foreigners will have no choice but to surrender.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 16:02:19
[Anonymous] 勇敢的心
2007-01-25 15:58:24
Today I bought 600151, 600663, 600432, 600731, 600180. My previous holdings 000859, 600055, 600488 are stuck. Feeling heavy-hearted.
==
Bad habit—you can't buy too many stocks. Concentrate instead, then use flexible capital to keep swing trading to lower costs—this is the safest approach. At all times, concentrate your firepower and maintain flexible capital.
This ID's capital is large, so I can't be too concentrated—otherwise I'd have to file a disclosure. Unless you're in this ID's situation, you should concentrate.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 16:04:53
[Anonymous] salmon
2007-01-25 16:03:16
Sister Chan, when you have time, please look at my question—I buy and it drops. So frustrating!
===
Because you chased highs, or bought during a decline without divergence. You must buy at buy points—otherwise you'll always be wrong.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 16:15:37
This ID is signing off for now—heading to that street where the most high officials hang out. Will say more tonight. Goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 21:09:45
Came back and saw this has blown up, so here's a special statement first:
This ID currently has essentially no ICBC position. Since the beginning of the year, I've done large-scale swaps into second- and third-tier stocks. Everyone here can attest that this ID has repeatedly emphasized second- and third-tier stocks on multiple occasions. Yesterday's post even listed the five main sectors of this strategic rotation: military industry, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, environmental protection, and public utilities. Moreover, today these stocks didn't drop at all—some even hit the limit-up, and of course that has something to do with this ID's efforts. So this ID's discussion of ICBC is entirely unrelated to personal interest. But this ID simply cannot stand seeing Chinese people kowtowing to Americans.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 21:16:36
On the medium-term market trajectory, this ID has long indicated that the worst case is forming a weekly-level Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán trend hub here. The first wave of this bull market has not yet completed—that is, the component-stock rally will continue after adjustment. This is beyond doubt. It's just that second- and third-tier component stocks offer more opportunity. Of course, first-tier stocks still have potential—they just need to wait for the right catalyst.
This grand bull market will absolutely not end before the third wave's great restructuring rally appears—this is absolutely certain. Even if a weekly hub oscillation occurs, individual stock opportunities will keep emerging. ICBC may have no rally, but individual stocks won't be without rallies. Don't believe it? Just watch. Today, this ID's agriculture stocks, environmental stocks, public utility stocks, and military stocks all hit new highs—these are the vanguard!
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 21:23:41
[Anonymous] 白玉兰
2007-01-25 21:21:31
Little Sister Chan:
Look how impressive Little Luo has become—everyone calls him class monitor. He says no, no...
But it seems like he's found his groove already.
Do you agree to let him be temporary class monitor?
I have another question: how long does "medium-term" generally refer to?
===
Weekly level. Daily counts as medium-short term. Monthly and above is long term. 30-minute is short term. 5-minute can only be called ultra-short term. And 1-minute is only meaningful for T+0 trading.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 21:25:58
[Anonymous] Leisurely
2007-01-25 21:23:16
Wow, Boss doesn't even have an ICBC position!
So it's all just cheering from the mouth without actually committing capital?
What can I even say?
===
How can you say there's no commitment? When they push it lower, then more capital will be committed—how about that? Besides, ICBC's current level still has some distance from the previous low of little more than a dime. Committing now would be too hasty. Second- and third-tier stocks are the main offensive targets—this was decided at the beginning of the year, and has been said many times here. Should be clear, right?
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 21:31:08
[Anonymous] Xiao Ming
2007-01-25 21:25:59
Sister Chan,
I know individual stock opportunities are constant. I want to know how far the market might adjust. Will it adjust to
2200 points? This adjustment has been long overdue—now that it's here, the magnitude shouldn't be small, and it won't be brief either, right?
===
As stated above, at most it's a weekly-level hub—same as the one from May to August last year—and whether it even materializes is still a question. If the market is strong enough, a couple days' rest and the rally can resume.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 21:35:24
[Anonymous] Leisurely
2007-01-25 21:28:48
But Boss, the momentum has been seized by others—wouldn't it be very hard to claw it back?
==
What's difficult about that? When you want ICBC, you can have it anytime—the key is having money, that's all. Right now it's the era of ignoring the index and trading individual stocks. Recently, the themes of overall listing, earnings, and bonus distributions offer the most opportunities.
Take the Zhejiang guy—he locked the limit-up first thing this morning without caring about the market. You think that was reckless? Note: absolutely do not chase highs. This ID said to buy at 8-9 yuan and you didn't—buying now would be insane. Some stocks' pullbacks are opportunities, especially those that haven't yet started moving—what's there to fear?
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 21:44:38
[Anonymous] YY
2007-01-25 21:39:26
Take the Zhejiang guy—he locked the limit-up first thing this morning without caring about the market. You think that was reckless? Note: absolutely do not chase highs. This ID said to buy at 8-9 yuan and you didn't—buying now would be insane. Some stocks' pullbacks are opportunities, especially those that haven't yet started moving—what's there to fear?
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Today the Zhejiang guy had pretty heavy volume though
==
Even for this ID's stocks, you absolutely cannot chase highs without confirming the buy point—this is something this ID has repeatedly emphasized and adamantly opposes.
Develop good habits—only buy stocks at buy points. When it drops, buy points appear—look across different levels to find them. This is the righteous path.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 21:46:59
[Anonymous] Leisurely
2007-01-25 21:44:30
I swapped—these past two days it's different ones
600217 will add more on tomorrow's pullback, ignoring the market
Boss, can you ask around whether this stock actually has a M&A theme?
Also, someone said that after the tax adjustment, many loss-making companies will turn profitable. Do you think it'll turn around?
===
Approaching earnings season, it's safest to buy stocks with earnings support—that's the most secure choice. Of course, if the investment is small and there's technical support, loss-making stocks are fine too—especially during market corrections, when some loss-making stocks may also go on a wild run.
China Life Insurance（601628）
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 22:04:10
[Anonymous] 潜水很久
2007-01-25 21:53:01
Big Sis, bought China Life at 39—how to operate tomorrow? Watching and learning!~!
==
The 49 level wasn't divergence—many people here exited. The subsequent price action was very standard. Actually, even without the American, it would've had to pull back to 40. Why? Trends must complete themselves. So the January 23rd move was inevitable—there had to be one leg down. If you're unclear about this, please carefully read this ID's stock articles. As for what comes next, support will continue to be tested, followed by a rebound of the corresponding level, with 45's hub as the pressure level.
Currently, the strongest scenario for this stock would be oscillating around the 45 hub; the weaker scenario would be returning to oscillate around the 38's previous hub. But from a medium-to-long-term perspective, this stock has absolute potential—it just needs to wait for the next collective launch of first-tier stocks. Otherwise, it'll mainly oscillate around some hub, with swing-trading opportunities aplenty.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 22:07:13
[Anonymous] Xiao Ming
2007-01-25 21:58:56
[Anonymous] 炒楼又炒股
2007-01-25 21:55:14
Sell China Life—listen to Big Sis and find a buy point to switch to second-tier.
----------------------------
Sell China Life? At 40 you'd still sell?
Tomorrow morning there'll be a continued downward probe; probably in the afternoon there'll be a clear divergence—then
you can add to your position if you have cash!
Sister Chan, would you big players consider China Life a second-tier stock?
==
First-tier stock. A heavyweight. Used for index control during consolidation, for breakouts during advances. The biggest problem with this rally is that no one's been looking after these first-tier stocks—everyone's busy with their own little patch of land. That's normal, though—right now it's second- and third-tier stocks' world.
China Life has plenty of short-term opportunities—5-minute and 30-minute charts show plenty.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 22:10:01
[Anonymous] Leisurely
2007-01-25 22:04:02
How did China Life get smashed so badly?
If the big players don't hold large-caps, how will they play index futures?
===
When you want them, you can have them anytime—it's simple, just need the money. Right now it's the age of ignoring the index and trading individual stocks. Recently, whole-company listings, earnings, bonus distributions—those offer the most opportunities.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 22:13:23
[Anonymous] Leisurely
2007-01-25 22:08:00
Boss, China Life looks like it wants to test 37?
===
No need to predict these things. The key is watching the technical action—buy at buy points, sell at sell points. Why exhaust yourself with predictions? What you need to care about is: is there 5-minute or 30-minute divergence?
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 22:19:23
[Anonymous] 淡定
2007-01-25 22:13:50
OP, please help me look—at this level, should I exit 000001 and 600050 first?
===
The key is what mindset you're holding these stocks with. If it's a medium-term mindset, ask yourself: Industrial Bank's IPO price is nearly 16 yuan—will it break below that? If not, is SDB's current price too high from a medium-term perspective? 600050's biggest potential lies in China Mobile's return listing; 3G is another catalyst. Both are inevitable in the foreseeable future.
But even for medium-term holdings, don't be too rigid—you can sell at short-term sell points and buy at buy points to swing trade. That's the best way to hold.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 22:28:40
Attention, everyone—this ID has said the following many times:
Operationally, you absolutely must not wait for so-called confirmation. Sell at sell points, buy at buy points—according to the corresponding level, of course. Even if you're holding medium-term, at 5-minute or 30-minute divergence, you can sell a portion first and re-buy lower. This way you stay flexible.
If your thinking is clear, right now the task is to keep your eyes wide open waiting for a buy point to reload—not panic-selling. Failing to sell at the sell point and only dump-selling now is a classic bad habit. If you're fully invested right now with zero cash, you need to seriously reflect on your operational shortcomings. You can't be too rigid.
A while back, didn't this ID explain how to allocate the newly arrived 800 million kilograms of rice? You need to keep 100 million in reserve, and also keep a pipeline that can be liquidated at any time.
For this round, among the old capital that got swapped, there's also a water utility stock at 20x P/E serving as the flexible reserve—this is crucial. Learn this operational mindset so you won't be knocked down by sudden market spikes.
With this ID's capital size, even I need to be this clear-headed—shouldn't everyone reflect on their own operational thinking and position structure?
Of course, if your capital is particularly small, just go all-in and all-out—sell everything when you should sell, buy everything when you should buy. This gives higher capital utilization, but the prerequisite is that you have full confidence in this ID's buy and sell points.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 22:32:37
[Anonymous] 舍小赢大
2007-01-25 22:23:12
OP, hello. I originally intended these two stocks for medium-term, so I ignored yesterday's 5-minute divergence. 600538, 600253—should I exit first tomorrow?
===
Even for medium-term, at a 5-minute divergence you can exit a portion first and re-buy lower. This way you stay flexible. If you missed the rhythm this time, just be more careful next time—nothing to worry about.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 22:35:09
[Anonymous] 风儿
2007-01-25 22:20:21
The definition of a hub is as follows:
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán trend hub: within a certain level's trend type, the overlapping portion shared by at least three consecutive sub-level trend types.
There is no direction defined for a hub.
But the definition of a trend states that in any trend at any level, a completed trend type contains at least two or more sequential same-direction Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán trend hubs.
How is this direction determined? Does upward direction mean down-up-down overlap? But for many stocks that rise in a zigzag pattern, there's never a down-up-down daily hub at all.
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How could there be none? As long as there's overlap, there's a hub. If there's no overlap, it means the hub hasn't formed. For example, a stock with consecutive limit-ups is just the constant creation of 1-minute hubs without forming any 5-minute hub—until it opens up.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 22:36:28
[Anonymous] YY
2007-01-25 22:34:08
Boss, please check—what tier does 601872 belong to?
===
New listing. Generally, as long as it's not a super-large-cap, it can only count as second-tier at most.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 22:37:46
It's too late. This ID is signing off. Goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/1/25 12:07:23
[Anonymous] MM
2007-01-25 12:06:23
First! How come so early, OP?
==
Signing off—going for a big feast!