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Teaching You to Trade Stocks 10: June 2005 — Why This ID Looked at Stocks Again After Four Years

2006/11/24 12:02:50



After June 2001, this ID never looked at stocks — not until June 2005. This ID was vehemently opposed to RMB appreciation and had written "Currency Wars and the RMB Strategy," which circulated widely on the internet. But by June 2005, this ID knew that some things are beyond human control — when the heavens want rain and mother wants to remarry, LET IT BE. So in June 2005, this ID looked at stocks again after a four-year hiatus.

Anyone on Qiangguo Forum knows that in June 2005, during the worst of the crash, this ID gave rarely bestowed praise to a government official three times in a row — the stock market's newcomer at the time, now that well-known man from Shandong. Afterward, this ID even wrote a special article enthusiastically applauding his statement that the share reform was "an arrow already loosed from the bow — no turning back." Meanwhile, this ID had also written an article titled "Wolves Fighting Over Meat — The Game of State Share Circulation and the Nibbling Away and Dividing Up of State Assets!" Does this mean this ID's logic is confused and self-contradictory?

Not at all. This is the perfect application of what this ID explained yesterday in "The Analerta" — Confucius said: "When the masses hate something, you must examine it; when the masses love something, you must examine it." Indeed, from the perspective of personal preference, this ID is vehemently opposed to RMB appreciation and state share circulation, and has profoundly analyzed the real logical relationships and serious consequences behind these schemes. But in the stock market, this ID has never had preferences. Anyone with basic financial literacy knows that historic bull markets triggered by historic appreciation of the domestic currency have been experienced by too many countries. This ID only knew that once the RMB appreciated and state shares began circulating, the stock market would surge. Why are intellectuals laughable? Because they have preferences but no "examination" — they try to theorize reality with theory, their heads clearly waterlogged.

Bookworms aren't suited for the investment market — wrong, I should say the speculation market. Don't believe there's any such thing as an "investment market" in this world. The world itself is speculative — what is there to "invest" in? It's like people claiming so-called love, when all love is nothing but a pair of underwear thrown over the lie of the sex game. All sex games can be expressed with this mathematical formula: 4N9. N represents any natural number from 0 to infinity. 0 means you didn't score, infinity means forever (which is just nonsense), 1 means a one-night stand (419). All sex games including love are expressed by this mathematical formula. Therefore, any investor's sexual relationship with a stock can also be fully expressed this way. Any stock and you — it's just a 4N9 relationship. What you can speculate on is this N. If you can extract a stock's vital essence like treating it as a gigolo during this N, then you're a master. Then move on to the next one and continue the N2 game. If the game can keep producing new episodes, and you can extract without being extracted, then you're a master among masters. The world is that simple — don't confuse yourself.

Stocks — when the masses hate them, you must examine; stocks — when the masses love them, you must examine. From Confucius's words, it isn't hard to understand the above principle. And understanding this principle means understanding what the speculation market's first rule — "only play what's playable" — is based on. All wisdom is interconnected. "Only play what's playable," not "only play what you like." Playable requires "examination" to determine — it doesn't come from likes and dislikes. Randomly grab someone in the market and ask why they bought the stock in their hands — 9,999 out of 10,000 will tell you it's because their stock is so good in this or that way. It would be the world's greatest miracle if such people could survive long in the market. This ID has never thought the stocks in hand were in any way good — I only know they're playable.

But almost everyone, including market makers and retail investors alike, loves to find reasons for why their stocks are good. Don't think market makers are different — there are never fewer fools among market makers than among retail investors. This ID has seen plenty. These people, once they hold a stock, go everywhere finding reasons to justify holding it, spinning stories for why it should go up — even when the stock has fallen from 10 to 1, they're still at it tirelessly. All losses in the market are caused by holding stocks that aren't playable. But for any stock, being playable is always relative, while being not playable is absolute. Just like in 4N9, if you set N to infinity for some gigolo, then I'd advise you to just kill yourself, because you're already living in vain — you're no longer a person but an appendage of some gigolo. N can only be assigned finitely to any fixed playable target. There must be N1, then N2 — this is how things regenerate endlessly, how fortunes rise and fall.

But during any given segment of N in 4N9, this gigolo, this stock, is your everything. You must throw yourself wholly into "examining" and "extracting." In the speculation market, opportunities always flash by — don't wait until daylight to ask about the darkness of night, or everything will have gone cold. Playable is relative, meaning at any time what's playable can become not playable. Once this "opportunity" is lost, you'll be stuck in the mire of the not-playable, unable to extricate yourself. Whether it's gigolos or stocks, you must go all-in and play to the death, then discard — these are two inseparable aspects. Any failure must involve failing in at least one of them.

In any segment of N in 4N9, there can be the world's most romantic stories, the most passionate entanglements — countless details, from foreplay to intertwining to entry to climax to refractory period to abandonment. All stories are the same story, just as all adult videos have the same plot. Starting from the next installment, we will carefully analyze every detail of this same plot, letting every detail sink deep into your heart and become instinctive reactions. Only then can you become the lead in the film, climaxing endlessly in every segment of 4N9, extracting yang without rest.

Replies​

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:15:10

The market is adjusting as expected. Pay close attention to stocks that defy the downtrend — there's a high probability that the dark horses of the next round will emerge from among them.

Currently in the midst of a battle between bulls and bears at the 5-day line. If the bulls win, the strongest scenario emerges — same-day adjustment completion. Otherwise, the adjustment period will be significantly extended. But individual stocks will perform well regardless. Pay close attention to stocks that haven't yet launched and are showing counter-trend strength.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:17:20

This ID will provide real-time tips about market movements in the latest post when available. Whether they're accurate, you can judge for yourselves.

Yesterday's tips transcribed below:

2006-11-23 13:42:46
Another friendly reminder: currently the Shenzhen Component Index and the Shanghai Index have diverged — this is a very bad signal. If it doesn't change after 2pm, intraday oscillation is inevitable. Moreover, the probability of the index entering adjustment increases further.

2006-11-23 15:11:58
As per the friendly reminder above, the market experienced significant intraday oscillation. During the oscillation, new sectors used the opportunity to launch — this is classic rotation. Those with good short-term skills can have a field day in these conditions.

But the market finally showed fatigue today. The two exchanges' indices diverged, and volume also contracted somewhat, portending that a real adjustment is imminent. Note: intraday oscillation and adjustment are not the same thing. Even the shortest-term adjustment must at least test the 5-day or even 10-day moving average.

As stated at noon, there's no need to fear adjustments. Skilled traders love adjustments most — adjustments are precisely when you look for the next round's best stocks. At minimum, you can use adjustments to swap stocks or play the spread. Previously inactive stocks may also use the adjustment to launch.





缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:26:23
[Anonymous] 乡下人

2006-11-24 12:23:21
You rascal, your own turf is already pretty good, yet you keep advertising elsewhere. Insecure much? Stop using big names as a tiger skin to cover yourself.

============

Precisely because this ID has absolute confidence — that's why advertising. Spread the word far and wide. China has over a billion people — enormous potential.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:32:07
[Anonymous] 快

2006-11-24 12:09:30
600118, 600123, 600832 — what does the Number Lady think?

=================

600118 — Mid-term adjustment. Waiting for the annual moving average to rise and provide support.

600123 — Mid-term looks fine. Short-term, watch the 15.8 resistance — if it doesn't break, beware of pullback pressure.

600832 — Significant annual moving average resistance. Once it stabilizes above it, a mid-term rally unfolds.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:33:04
[Anonymous] 你的样子

2006-11-24 12:24:46
Hello Number Lady, I spent a few days reading your blog from the beginning to here. Impressive, truly impressive.
I have a question: as someone who's basically an outsider to stocks, can I take advantage of the current favorable conditions to enter the market? For stocks, which matters more — understanding the game, or the overall market conditions?

===============

Study first. Don't be confused from the very start — that would be real trouble.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:33:57
[Anonymous] 惊为天人

2006-11-24 12:28:44
Beauty, could you recommend some good beginner books on stocks?
After reading your articles, I deeply understand why masters are always lonely.

=============

Just read this ID's work. When it comes to stocks, there's no one more authoritative in all of China than this ID — what else would you want to read?

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:38:11
Chán Zhōng Tīng Chán

2006-11-24 12:34:42
Master Zen, may I ask —
Speaking of poetry and lyrics, would Gao Xiaosong qualify as a gigolo?
I admire him, even though he's from our rival Tsinghua (I'm from Peking University)

================
I won't comment on modern poetry. As for classical poetry, this ID hasn't yet seen anyone contemporary who writes better than this ID. What this ID has posted online is only mid-to-low level work. Several challenges so far and no worthy opponent — enough said.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:39:27
[Anonymous] 灵岩

2006-11-24 12:35:24
Host: I really want to know your views on closed-end funds, steel stocks, and power (or utility) stocks. I hope you could enlighten me.
Thanks!

=================

All fine. Isn't the mid-term rally in steel stocks already underway? The others will also perform. Hold patiently.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:46:18
[Anonymous] 灵岩

2006-11-24 12:39:15
Then let me ask about individual stocks: 600026, 600886, 600401, 600012, 600231 — how will they move? Thanks!

=====================

600026 — The 30-day moving average is the mid-term key. Don't sell if it hasn't broken. But the best buying opportunity has passed.



600886 — Retested the annual moving average and found support. If confirmed unbroken, a mid-term rally could unfold.

600401 — Testing annual moving average support.

600012 — Broke above the annual moving average. Waiting for confirmation.

600231 — Short-term resistance at 4.89, maintaining box pattern until it breaks. Mid-term looks fine.



缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:47:18
Chán Zhōng Tīng Chán

2006-11-24 12:43:40
Master Zen!
I've read and saved your masterpiece. Regarding stocks, Master uses non-adjusted charts — why not use adjusted ones? For example: 600581 weekly 120-period at 4 yuan resistance, but if adjusted, the 120-period is at 3 yuan.
My interpretation: most retail investors don't adjust, so we just go with the error.
Please correct me!

============

Down with patriarchal rights — naturally we can't use "restored rights" (adjusted) charts. [Translator's note: wordplay on 复权 fùquán meaning both "restore rights/ex-rights adjustment" and "restore authority"]

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:50:27
[Anonymous] Leisurely

2006-11-24 12:48:16
Auntie, hurry up and answer mine!

===========

First learn some manners.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:52:38
[Anonymous] Night雨

2006-11-24 12:39:31
Could you help me look at 580004? Thanks.

================

Not bad. But warrants carry larger risk — those with weak short-term skills are better off not participating.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:53:45
[Anonymous] 爱你——数女

2006-11-24 12:51:45
Are you bullish or bearish on real estate?

=========

Second-tier real estate stocks play catch-up, then it'll be the third-tier stocks. Grasp this rhythm.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 12:59:08
[Anonymous] 老闲

2006-11-24 12:50:00
After reading your blog for several days, I suddenly feel like I'm exactly the kind of worthless person you describe who can't make money, and I even claimed to have studied economics — thick-skinned is an understatement. I'd like to express my gratitude to big sis, because indeed, some of your ideas have resolved problems that were troubling me. Haha, ideas sometimes produce unexpected externalities. Thanks to the internet, thanks to the blogger for sharing knowledge and experience. Also, a practical question: when looking at charts, should we use ex-rights adjusted K-lines? And I'd like to ask about 000898 bought at 8.1, 000725 bought at 3.2, and 600301 bought at 4 yuan — how should I handle these three? Sell, or hold? Currently these three positions aren't large, and I still have capital to work with. Thanks.

=================

No adjustment — adjusted charts can be referenced for historical resistance and support levels.

000898
Absolutely never chase stocks higher. Wouldn't it be safer and more effective to buy right after it broke through the annual moving average and pulled back?



000725
Wait a bit — mid-term, you'll get out of the trap.



600301
Again, it's the annual moving average issue. Mid-term should be fine. Short-term, grinding around the annual MA will be a bit of a grind.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 13:00:43

Market's open. That's it for the noon session. Will continue this afternoon and evening. See you.

The most important thing for everyone here is to learn on your own. This ID alone can't solve everyone's problems. Once traffic increases, there's no way to answer everything.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 13:34:49
Significant resistance at the 5-day line. Observe more before it stabilizes. Pay close attention to stocks that don't follow the broader market's moves.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 13:50:35
Broke back above the 5-day line. If the 2pm retest confirms stability, the market will launch a counterattack.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 14:14:17
Counterattack momentum is a bit weak. Individual stocks are performing well. Real estate stocks — as discussed above — first tier, then second tier, then third tier. Now even Tianhong, a third-tier loss-making real estate stock, has launched. But at this point, short-term pressure on the real estate sector starts building. Mid-term, no concerns for now.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 14:58:46
[Anonymous] 熊熊

2006-11-24 14:14:06
Big sis, I'm Xiongxiong — a silly girl who lost her capital in the stock market four years ago. Reading your blog has deeply moved me, and I've decided to stop being a silly girl who follows the herd. May I ask for some advice and guidance? Recently I only watched the index go up without making any money. Could you discuss the trends of these two stocks for me? Thank you, sis.

============
Will answer tonight.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 15:00:18
Counterattack materialized as expected. Momentum has issues — turbulence next week is inevitable. Short-term, the 5-day line is key. If broken, it will retest the gap support below 2000.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 15:02:00
Must head to Zhongguancun now — have a negotiation. Can't answer everyone's questions. See you tonight.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 20:50:56
[Anonymous] Night雨

2006-11-24 13:08:50
Sis, truly a master. Discovered your articles these few days — I'm truly in awe. Thanks for answering my question about 580004 earlier. I'm also holding heavy positions in 601111 at cost 4.45, 000039 at cost 14.2, and 600436 at cost 17.4. Should I sell or hold? Also want to enter 600832 — can I enter now? Thanks.

==============

601111 — Never, ever chase stocks higher. Always buy right when they're launching. Mid-term, after a big rally, wait for the mid-term adjustment to end before buying again. While this approach wastes many so-called opportunities, it guarantees survival. It's fine now in a bull market — you can make money buying however you want. But once you develop this habit, you'll be in big trouble later. Mid-term this stock is fine. Short-term volatility is unavoidable.



000039 — Don't wait for a big bullish candle before buying. You must get used to buying on volume pullbacks after breakouts — the risk is much lower. Mid-term this stock is fine. Short-term there'll be some shakiness since it's right at the previous gap level.



600436 — The 17-18 yuan short-term box is facing a breakout decision. This stock is in a major mid-term adjustment after a big rally: the 15.5 to 19.6 mid-term large box consolidation will involve plenty of turbulence before it resolves.



600832 — Short-term facing annual MA resistance at 11.4. Once it effectively breaks through, upside space completely opens up.



缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:07:55
[Anonymous] 熊熊

2006-11-24 13:39:53
Sis, after reading your blog, I realize I'm one of those people who can't make money. Please analyze the trends of 000562 and 000875. Please advise. Please write more articles on stock trading. Thanks.

==============

000562 — Major mid-term adjustment after a big surge. Short-term, there's a breakout attempt, but whether it's a genuine breakout requires close observation, because this type of pattern produces the most fakeouts. Short-term resistance at 8.8, mid-term resistance at 9.6. Launching a second wave requires effective breakthrough of the latter level.



000875 — Accumulating mid-term launch energy. The mid-term key level is the 120-week moving average, currently at 3.4 yuan and gradually declining. The mid-term rally's launch is signaled by an effective breakthrough of this line.



缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:16:36
[Anonymous] 请教LZ

2006-11-24 21:10:32
600832's annual moving average is at 8.78 — how is it 11.4? Such a big difference?
My setting is 240-day, non-adjusted.

==========

Yours is wrong. Find out why. Also, the annual moving average generally uses 250 days.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:17:35
Wind and Moon

2006-11-24 21:14:06
"Just read this ID's work. When it comes to stocks, there's no one more authoritative in all of China than this ID — what else would you want to read?"
"I won't comment on modern poetry. As for classical poetry, this ID hasn't yet seen anyone contemporary who writes better than this ID. What this ID has posted online is only mid-to-low level work. Several challenges so far and no worthy opponent — enough said."

In all the world, I've never seen anyone this confident! If even a fraction of your confidence could be given to me, I'd change dramatically! Let me quietly ask — how does one build such powerful confidence??

===========

Strength.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:20:01

Can't explain individual stocks one by one — too time-consuming. Some people list over a dozen stocks — if things went that way, this ID wouldn't have time for anything else even if I did nothing but explain.

From now on, maximum one stock per person per session. Especially as traffic grows, we need a good solution.

And the best solution is for you to learn it yourselves. Learn to fish, and you'll have fish.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:23:43
[Anonymous] 咕咚

2006-11-24 21:17:18
Any thoughts on put warrants for next week?

===========

Waiting for a massive explosion when the broader market turns.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:28:07
[Anonymous] toLZ

2006-11-24 21:22:5
5 "Yours is wrong. Find out why. Also, the annual moving average generally uses 250 days."
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Miss, how do you set yours? I've always looked at it this way! I just carefully compared, and all the annual MAs you've previously referenced don't match mine. Please advise — perhaps this question is very simple for you.

===========

Sorry, this ID doesn't study computer systems much. Oriental Pearl's annual MA at 8-something yuan is definitely wrong — probably didn't account for the G-share ex-rights adjustment. Every system is different — figure it out on your own.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:31:16
[Anonymous] 无言

2006-11-24 20:11:21
The USD dropped sharply in forex markets tonight. What impact will this have on the stock market next week?

==========

This way of thinking is completely wrong. Don't predict the impact of any individual piece of news. Instead, carefully observe the market's comprehensive reaction to all news — that is, the market's price action itself.

It's like a cold testing a person's constitution. News exists to test the market's constitution, not for making predictions.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:32:28
[Anonymous] 数妹fans

2006-11-24 21:28:58
Number sis, you've worked hard!

===========

No worries. When there's time, I say more; when there isn't, I say less. This ID can't guarantee being like this every day.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:41:13
[Anonymous] 摄影之友

2006-11-24 21:24:04
Host:
You're like the embodiment of wisdom! ~~~ Facing the host's great wisdom, it truly feels like "one session of your words is worth ten years of reading." And you're so young — how can I not think of the saying "ambition knows no age; without ambition, one lives a hundred years in vain"! ~~~ You are a child of wisdom! ~~~
I've been in the stock market for quite a while now — about three months — but I consistently lose because of my mentality. Sigh, adjusting slowly. A few days ago I sold 600177 (Youngone), but today it went up counter to the market, so I want to ask:

  1. Can I chase 600177 back next week? Although I read your advice about being ruthless with stocks you've sold;
  2. 600028 (Sinopec) at 7.70 and 600019 (Baosteel) at 6.36 — can I continue holding?
  3. Any commentary on next week's market outlook?

=================

Your situation is typical, so this ID doesn't mind saying a few more words.

First, ask yourself why you sold that stock. If you entered with a mid-term perspective, then all mid-term indicators for that stock were performing well — it had been consolidating above the 120-week moving average, the mid-term lifeline, without breaking below it. So there's no mid-term reason to sell. Short-term — forget about it. Sold is sold. So when buying stocks, you must first clarify why you're buying. What's your reason for playing this stock? Short-term or mid-term? You need to design appropriate entry models and position management accordingly, and not be influenced by the market's short-term fluctuations.

Aren't your entry prices for the other two stocks a bit too much of a chase? Mid-term, they're both fine, but this ID thinks you need to develop the absolute habit of never chasing highs — unless it's right at the launch. Chasing after a major rally is not a sustainable investment strategy.

Market outlook is in the closing summary above. Look for this ID's posts around 3pm.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:46:39

Here are some of today's real-time tips during trading — study them well, they'll be useful when index futures come.

Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán 2006-11-24 12:15:10
The market is adjusting as expected. Pay close attention to stocks that defy the downtrend — there's a high probability that the dark horses of the next round will emerge from among them.

Currently in the midst of a battle between bulls and bears at the 5-day line. If the bulls win, the strongest scenario emerges — same-day adjustment completion. Otherwise, the adjustment period will be significantly extended. But individual stocks will perform well regardless. Pay close attention to stocks that haven't yet launched and are showing counter-trend strength.

Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán 2006-11-24 13:34:49
Significant resistance at the 5-day line. Observe more before it stabilizes. Pay close attention to stocks that don't follow the broader market's moves.

Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán 2006-11-24 13:50:35
Broke back above the 5-day line. If the 2pm retest confirms stability, the market will launch a counterattack.

Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán 2006-11-24 14:14:17
Counterattack momentum is a bit weak. Individual stocks are performing well. Real estate stocks — as discussed above — first tier, then second tier, then third tier. Now even Tianhong, a third-tier loss-making real estate stock, has launched. But at this point, short-term pressure on the real estate sector starts building. Mid-term, no concerns for now.

Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán 2006-11-24 15:00:18
Counterattack materialized as expected. Momentum has issues — turbulence next week is inevitable. Short-term, the 5-day line is key. If broken, it will retest the gap support below 2000.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:49:57
[Anonymous] toLZ

2006-11-24 21:41:34
"Sorry, this ID doesn't study computer systems much. Oriental Pearl's annual MA at 8-something yuan is definitely wrong — probably didn't account for the G-share ex-rights adjustment. Every system is different — figure it out on your own."
— — — — — — — — — —
— — — — — — — — — —

Thanks host, it was indeed an ex-rights issue. Resolved now. Much appreciated.
I've always used standard ex-rights. Software is the most basic Qianlong. What divine tool does miss use?

=================

Whatever's in the institutional trading room — every brokerage is different. This ID doesn't pay much attention to that. What matters is the person, not the system.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:50:54
Chán Zhōng Tīng Chán

2006-11-24 21:49:24
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán 2006-11-24 21:20:01
Can't explain individual stocks one by one — too time-consuming. Some people list over a dozen stocks — if things went that way, this ID wouldn't have time for anything else even if I did nothing but explain.

From now on, maximum one stock per person per session. Especially as traffic grows, we need a good solution.

And the best solution is for you to learn it yourselves. Learn to fish, and you'll have fish.
--------------------------------------------
I'll answer the beginner questions. Master Zen just needs to say right or wrong.

=============

That works too — you'll improve yourself in the process.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 21:57:10
[Anonymous] 在路上

2006-11-24 21:42:35
Master Zen didn't respond to my stock question, and that's fine. I'd like to ask 2 more questions:

  1. My niece just started junior high. Could you recommend some books to broaden her horizons in mathematics?
  2. Could you elaborate on that line from "Teaching You to Trade Stocks 4" — "Use your eyes to see, use your heart to feel"? Sigh, my aptitude is limited. Please advise. Thank you!

==============

The key is her own interest. Without interest in the subject, no book will be effective.

First, don't be influenced by news, emotions, and such — only then can your eyes see clearly. Then your heart will become sensitive, and gradually you'll develop a kind of intuition for the market. The market becomes like your own body — at the slightest breeze or sneeze, you'll sense it immediately. That's when you're getting somewhere. But this takes time. First, turn some foundational things into instinctive reactions — for example, establishing effective operating procedures that suit yourself. That's the most basic thing for a beginner.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 22:01:06
[Anonymous] 破缠悟禅

2006-11-24 21:52:10
Master Zen, hello!
I've just entered the stock market. May I ask a few questions and request your analysis?
Currently holding: 000858, 000659, 600050. Could you please analyze the situation? Thanks!
Also, I'd like to learn short-term trading. Any advice from the master?

=============

000858 — Major mid-term adjustment after a big rally. Currently waiting for the 5-week line to rise and provide support. If it can stabilize at the 5-week line in the short term, the probability of a second-wave breakout is high. Otherwise, more consolidation ahead.

000659, 600050 — Mid-term, both are fine. Won't go into details.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 22:05:16
[Anonymous] 小迷糊

2006-11-24 21:54:19
I followed Number Lady from MOP to Tianya's chat section, then to the stock forum, then to this blog. Thanks to Number Lady's methodology commentary on stock operations — reading it truly felt like a knock on the head, and I've gained many insights. This month's actual trading results have been spectacular — not a single miss. That's all thanks to Number Lady. Haha. Number Lady, if you're ever in Chengdu, let me treat you to tea. Many thanks.

===========

Keep summarizing and don't let victory go to your head. After all, it's a bull market now, and operational difficulty is much lower. Market operation is a process of martial arts cultivation. Don't limit yourself to one level. First explore and summarize, then seek breakthroughs to reach a new level. This is all a process of self-cultivation — others can only offer a few words from the sidelines.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 22:23:14
[Anonymous] 摄影之友

2006-11-24 22:08:35 "Aren't your entry prices for the other two stocks a bit too much of a chase? Mid-term, they're both fine, but this ID thinks you need to develop the absolute habit of never chasing highs — unless it's right at the launch. Chasing after a major rally is not a sustainable investment strategy."
==========================================
Thanks host. So how should I operate next week? Sell them (600028/600019)? And no longer chase 600177 either?
Depressed! ~~~ Sigh.. The ignorant are fearless!! Maybe that's exactly the mentality that made me chase.

============

You don't need to sell everything. After all, the mid-term rally hasn't fully ended. If you're fully loaded in these two stocks, then use short-term bounces to reduce your position somewhat — this reduces risk and makes capital deployment more flexible. If the positions aren't large proportionally, then just holding is fine.

To be honest, situations like yours are troublesome for anyone to handle. All operating difficulties are caused by operating mistakes. Developing good habits is the single most important thing in investing. Don't worry about opportunities disappearing — the market always has opportunities. The key is having the ability to discover and seize them, and the foundation of that ability is a set of good operating habits. That way, no operation presents any dilemma — everything is simple.

True masters never charge headlong into difficulties, putting themselves in do-or-die situations every day. Read the story of the ox-carver in Zhuangzi and think carefully about it.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 22:25:15
Too late now. Heading off. Good night, everyone. See you.

缠中说禅 2006/11/24 22:30:00
[Anonymous] thanks

2006-11-24 22:23:22
Host, I visit your blog every day. I've learned a great deal here. Thank you for bringing us joy.
By the way, is 600797 playable?

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Mid-term is fine. Short-term, the best timing — when the moving averages were converging — has already passed. Entering now carries some risk of a breakout failure. So it's only a second-best opportunity. Whether to enter depends on your risk tolerance.

Last question of the day. See you.

缠中说禅 2006/11/28 9:12:36

[Anonymous] ddt181 posted in "Teaching You to Trade Stocks 10: June 2005 — Why This ID Looked at Stocks Again After Four Years": 2006-11-27 19:12:23

Sis, huge respect. I bought 600352 and 600253, a couple of trash stocks, years ago. Still trapped. The index has doubled. When will I be freed?
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Wait. Their turn will come.