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Total Defeat for the Bears: Predictors Must Be Humiliated

2007/9/20 15:40:19

What is prediction? This ID has already stated very clearly — it's nothing but a probability game. Those who proclaim that such-and-such place is some great top are no different from fortune tellers on the street. Stocks are for operating, not for predicting. This is the first creed of all market participants.

Yesterday's top fractal had two possible evolutions: one was breaking below the 5-day moving average to extend into a stroke, and the other was not breaking the 5-day line but instead breaking above the top fractal. Today, right at the opening, the market clearly made its choice. Note: no one is smarter than the market itself, because the market is the result of combined forces. If you think you're smarter than the market, then you're making yourself God, and God must die.

Every day the market has its predictors, and according to probability, someone will always stumble upon that one and only pie falling from the sky. But this doesn't prove the market can be predicted — on the contrary, it proves that predicting the market is just a boring game. Getting it right only proves the pie happened to land on you.

This ID said yesterday: for the short-term market, just watch whether that 1-minute hub produces a third-type sell point. And our eyes tell us — we didn't see one, and that's enough. Without a third-type sell point, let the market continue to develop and tell you the next operation. This is the core issue of this ID's theory.

From the perspective of capital and psychology, this ID can also analyze for everyone. Right now, there's only one week left before the long holiday, with a Mid-Autumn Festival in between. How likely is it that the biggest fear of bullish capital — a powerful policy crackdown — will occur? After National Day, during the most important conference period, who would have the mind to impose any powerful policy crackdown? This gap gives bullish capital a good opportunity. During this window, if they can successfully complete the bull trap, then there will be room for a pullback; otherwise, where would the room come from? I ask you: without 1,000 points of pullback room, does shorting even hold any attraction for large capital?

Speaking harshly, many bullish funds are now going long again precisely because they've become disillusioned with the regulatory intensity of policy. Now, more and more people are accepting this ID's concept of the game on the knife's edge. Indeed, it's very dangerous now, but the most dangerous moment may actually be the safest. Those without technique or courage should leave or reduce their positions; those with technique and courage — this is truly the most exciting time to go wild. If some hard blow really comes, it's all about who strikes hardest with the blade. As long as you have the courage to strike decisively, who fears whom?

Let me emphasize again: the current game is very dangerous. Ordinary people, without the psychological fortitude and technique, should hold half positions and wait, or just follow what this ID has repeatedly said about the 5-day or 5-week moving average — if it effectively breaks down, slash with one stroke. Otherwise, keep playing. Some might ask what position this ID takes — bull or bear? This ID takes neither side. When the bulls can't push any higher, this ID hammers harder than the bears; when the bears can't push any lower, this ID covers more aggressively than the bulls. This ID's operating principle on the knife's edge was announced to everyone early on: no more strategic buying, but strategic holding, while reducing costs and accumulating shares through back-and-forth oscillations.

Someone asks: what if there's major bad news tonight? That question is meaningless. You should ask yourself: is your blade sharp?

Others ask: aren't you talking about the game between policy and capital? Yes, but this ID doesn't stand on either side. This ID only exploits the opportunities created by this game to increase one's own assets. This is the wisest strategy.

So everyone should understand: in this ID's "End of 2007: Trend Analysis Under the Game Between Capital and Policy," this ID wasn't predicting the market but performing a complete classification. Although this ID would prefer to see the market develop into a balanced pattern, which would be beneficial for future market development, this absolutely will not affect this ID's operations. Because once capital achieves a large-scale victory over policy, the market could very well break through 6100 points massively by year-end. But you must be clear about the consequences of such a trend — because in China, policy is always the final victor. The frenzy of capital can only end in the greatest suppression.

But the ending has nothing to do with profits — profits are always generated in the process. The ending may be tragic, but if you can escape unscathed when the tragedy arrives, what does the tragedy have to do with you? Speaking even more harshly: every tragedy merely creates the next great opportunity.

Without the tragedy of the losers, where would the glory of the victors come from? This is the logic of the market. If you can't accept it, please leave. Those who stay must accept it.

Today's charting is too simple, so I'll skip posting it. Let me say again: that 200-image upload space is just too small. Now that 1-minute has already extended into a 5-minute hub. The question now is whether the pullback after the 1-minute departure forms a third-type buy point on the 5-minute level. If not, then it oscillates again — what's wrong with that?

This ID welcomes any market movement, including massive bad news tonight. Being in the market means being ready to accept everything. The key is whether you have the technique and strategy to handle everything when it comes.

Questions can be answered today until 4:30.

Replies​

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 15:49:05
Entangle Me Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 15:42:48
Sister, is his book copied from you?
--Song Hongbing "Currency Wars" (published by CITIC Press)

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Sorry, haven't read this book. These days I basically don't read other people's books anymore — don't want to waste time.

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 15:51:54
[Anonymous] Sina User Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 15:48:13
Why didn't Chan sister build positions in coal stocks?

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This ID also didn't build positions in real estate stocks. This ID doesn't like the faces of real estate moguls, and equally doesn't like the blood and tears in coal. Can't this ID survive without messing with these things?

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 15:55:55
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán Tech Base Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 15:45:38
If Sina goes down someday, Chan master should come live-stream on the forum. The forum has collected all your articles.

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Thank you, wishing you all the best. But to avoid suspicion, this ID should keep some distance. If Sina is gone one day, it might be the signal that the karmic connection has reached its end. This ID hopes Sina can last forever, but who can guarantee that?

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 15:58:38
All Red Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 15:48:07
Chan master, if the market turns bad, will the scripts of those theme stocks that just started performing after months of dormancy be significantly affected?

It's harvest season for me, and I'm scared. Thank you, Chan master.

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If you're only looking at the short term, the pressure is naturally high. But from a medium-to-long-term perspective, who dares say this level is already high?

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 16:05:52
[Anonymous] Sina User Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 15:56:08
Sister, they're all "China"-prefix stocks, so why the favoritism? 737 seems like a stepchild.

==
Someone bought heavily at 13-14 yuan, so they must be shaken out. There's absolutely no problem with the fundamentals. Those who have been closely following this stock must remember that at 13.99 and 13.49 yuan there were large buy orders, which were later all wiped out. I can tell you: those buy orders were not from the main force.

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 16:16:16
[Anonymous] Sina User Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 15:51:59
Hello Chan sister!
Lessons 77–79 further clarified the segmentation of some complex line segments. But based on these lessons, the segmentation of segments 37–38 seems to violate the rules again. Could Chan sister elaborate further on segments 37–38?
Also, after lesson 81's content on line segments came out, the segmentation of 32–33 has produced a contradiction. What exactly is different between 32–33 and the two diagrams in lesson 81?
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Work it out yourself based on the definitions. Some differences in charting may be caused by differences in data, so a new definition of strokes was recently given to reduce the impact of data discrepancies between different software platforms.

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 16:20:37
[Anonymous] Sina User Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 15:54:08
Boss, you kept mentioning Tian Liang's dive the past couple days. Please give a clear hint — why aren't you talking about it today? Hope you can answer?????????

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Tian Liang didn't compete in the 1-meter springboard? Who told you to predict anything? Didn't you see the most important sentence yesterday? "If no third-type sell point appears, we'll keep playing along." Did a third-type sell point appear today?

Please remove the word "prediction" from your brain. Just follow the chart.

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 16:23:48
[Anonymous] 3408A Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 15:58:18
I'd like to hear your opinion on Beijing's current housing prices going forward. The housing market is like the stock market. Thank you
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No room to fall. Compared to other places, Beijing's housing prices are actually no longer outrageous. Go take a look at Shenzhen and the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region. After you've seen them, you'll know where Beijing's housing prices stand.

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 16:25:43
[Anonymous] Sina User Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 16:22:34
A question for Chan master
The bulls are this ferocious — apart from funds and other regular forces, nobody would dare be this reckless, right?? But policy can't even command the regular forces!! Isn't that too incompetent??

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Who told you the ones going long now are necessarily the so-called regular army? Moreover, even among the regular army there are disagreements. For example, for the likes of CICC, they certainly don't want the market to fall — otherwise their red chips would be unsellable, right?

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 16:29:22
[Anonymous] 爱黄金 Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 16:21:18
Liu Junluo says the stock market will drop below 2000 points in 2008, gold will rise to $3000 an ounce, housing prices will skyrocket, and the RMB will plummet catastrophically.
Chan master, what do you think ordinary folks like us should do?

==

There are plenty of shamans in this world. When the invaders came, didn't China remain China?

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 16:30:38
[Anonymous] 藤 Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 16:22:16
Chan master, I have two questions for you. I've been waiting for you for ages — you came yesterday but I didn't catch you..

  1. How can you accurately determine the endpoint of a line segment in real-time, without having to wait until the next line segment has retraced far before confirming?
  2. Why do some stocks show a 1F or 5F bottom divergence, yet there's no buy point on 30F or the daily chart, but that 1F or 5F bottom divergence point also turned out to be the lowest point on 30F and the daily chart? Boss, why won't you answer my question? I've been waiting for ages and asked many times

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You can use quasi-divergence to judge, but it's best not to operate on line segments — they're too short.

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 16:32:47
[Anonymous] Stock Louse Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 16:10:45
Chan MM has been repeatedly warning about risk. Can put warrants be used to hedge?
Like China Southern Airlines put warrants — but with their unlimited creation, have they lost the function of hedging against declines?

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Honestly, those aren't good hedging instruments. But right now there really aren't proper hedging tools domestically. For retail investors, the best approach is to reduce positions — that way, whatever happens, nothing is scary.

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 16:35:57
[Anonymous] 我心飞翔 Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 16:13:39
Sister, I know you're very patient, but I have a question for you.
So many people here read your articles and start guessing about some big bad news, or they drink some Er Guo Tou and guess that PP related to Er Guo Tou will rise, or that a big wind is blowing in bad news or whatever — when you see this, does it make you laugh so hard your stomach hurts?

Do you think people should even bother making such associations?
Gotta be quick, or you'll leave and won't see my question.

==
Having fun is fine, but if you actually use it for trading, that's not good. However, sometimes to avoid suspicion, this ID will say things in an obscure way, but they're all quite easy to understand. This ID has already said — everyone here is brilliantly clever.

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 16:36:22
Sorry, something came up. Heading off now. Goodbye.

缠中说禅 2007/9/20 16:40:08
[Anonymous] 大盘 Delete all comments by this person

2007-09-20 16:32:18
A question for the blogger,

For a sub-level pullback forming a 3rd-type buy point: if during the sub-level pullback process, the sub-sub-level does break below the current-level hub, but the endpoint of the sub-level pullback doesn't break below the hub — can this count as a 3rd-type buy point?

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Before I leave, let me answer this one. Strictly speaking, no, but it belongs to a type that is operationally viable. It can be regarded as something like the second buy point after a buy point at the sub-sub-level.

Goodbye.