Let's Chat About Some Idle Matters Today.
2007/4/13 15:31:25
The number of people coming here now, though still not reaching even a third of those going to that Kong fellow's place, is growing. This ID did not start this blog out of boredom or having nothing to do. The main reasons are as follows:
First, to make myself write things. Something like interpreting The Analects — without persisting day by day like this, it would be very hard to complete. This ID is also not suited to appearing publicly at the moment. The capital markets industry is a solitary profession; only those who've lost their abilities resort to public appearances, and by then death isn't far off. Only when this ID decides to completely leave the front lines of the capital markets will I publish.
Second, nowadays, amid the cacophony of voices, everyone is peddling something. This ID sells nothing here. Here there is no dharma to transmit, no gate to enter. Amidst the illusory net, illusory deeds arise — the secret is beside you, treasure it yourself.
Third, regarding stocks, the hope is also that each of you can become self-reliant. This ID discusses those trivial matters of the market; those with affinity will gain from it. Here at this ID's place, stocks are a minor matter. For this ID, money became a minor matter over a decade ago. But if this little survival skill can be picked up by those with earnest intent and relieve some survival pressure, achieving freedom from money — in this reality, that too is a convenient path.
Fourth, there are too many fools nowadays. China's rise has the momentum of destiny. Though an abundance of fools won't obstruct the grand scheme, it needlessly adds twists and turns, and those twists and turns affect everyone. The best approach is to first expose the foolish deeds and lies of fools one by one. When the great Way prevails, there will naturally come a day of blossoming and bearing fruit.
Fifth, this ID has many CDs here and will share them with you when the opportunity arises. While I'm at it, let me plug something: go to this ID's podcast and download more — the more you download, the more upload space this ID gets in the future, and the more music everyone can listen to. This ID treats computers like facing a wall — I don't want to delve too deeply into them. That podcast platform works smoothly enough, so I won't switch, and I certainly won't set up a private hosting space. Just like being here — there are plenty of issues, but this ID is the type who, once settled in a place, doesn't like to move.
Sixth, no particular reason. Since it already exists, it will continue to exist. Just like a buy point that's already been bought — now we're in the holding phase, and until the sell point appears, just keep holding.
A few final words: the content here at this ID's place — there's no ruling out that people will take it out and peddle it. Among those who talk about stocks now, those who make a living by collecting other people's money — they shouldn't be given a free ride. In the market, if you've got what it takes, earn money from the market itself. Note: anyone who charges fees is certainly a market loser. Giving them money? You'd be better off going to Macau to gamble.
Be self-reliant. Don't rely on anyone — not even this ID. Every person is a Buddha. Stop short-changing yourself.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 15:41:22
[Anonymous] 外科医生
2007-04-13 15:37:44
The late-session dive messed up my mindset
I thought the correction would wait until Monday. I didn't see divergence in 600500 either
Then it just dropped in a straight line
Haha
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This is a classic case of a small-level-turning-into-larger-level on the 1-minute chart.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 15:43:13
[Anonymous] christine
2007-04-13 15:40:27
Undertaking consolidation at this level will benefit the broader market's future movements.
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My understanding is that a correction is due. Frenzy must cool down eventually — otherwise everyone getting a high fever wouldn't be good.
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The way those two stocks that resumed trading today were wildly manipulated is unacceptable. If the regulators won't cool things down, this ID will cool things down, and the market will cool things down too — let everyone sober up.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 15:45:18
[Anonymous] 炒汉奸
2007-04-13 15:43:08
Chan MM, write a poem to celebrate 10,000 points!
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What's there to celebrate about 10,000 points? There's nothing to celebrate in the market. Keep your mindset steady. Don't develop emotional attachments to stocks or index levels — just watch the market's signals.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 15:46:17
[Anonymous] 悟禅
2007-04-13 15:45:12
What the teacher says is absolutely right. Today I saw a report from the State Council Development Research Center, which suggests the government wants to cool down the stock market.
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Their level isn't high enough. All they do is write documents. They're not the key players.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 15:52:18
[Anonymous] 马背上的水手
2007-04-13 15:45:45
So does that mean everyone needs to wait for the correction shoe to drop?
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A great bull market tests not only investors but also the regulators — that's the intent behind this ID's constant talk about them these past few days. But today's market deserving trouble is its own fault. Those two stocks that resumed trading were wildly manipulated — if things don't come down for a cool-off, that's unacceptable.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 15:56:00
[Anonymous] 无限
2007-04-13 15:53:10
Hello, Chan M, hello everyone
I went out this afternoon to take care of some things. At 2:30, I even called to check on my stocks — they were all doing great, and I was quite happy.
Came home to see things had dropped like this. Really depressing.
Monday, as soon as the market opens, I plan to liquidate everything.
Chan M, how can you spot early warning signs of such sudden moves from the trading screen?
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It's very simple. Look at the 1-minute chart of the Shenzhen index. What happened at 14:45?
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 15:57:49
[Anonymous] Chu Kuangren
2007-04-13 15:47:57
May I ask which version of The Four Seasons the boss considers the best? Could you recommend one?
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We'll play it this week.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 15:58:44
[Anonymous] 中信海直
2007-04-13 15:56:41
If one's skills aren't very good, should they just clear their positions on Monday and wait on the sidelines???
Please advise, MM
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If your skills aren't good, hold half positions and wait. I think I've been saying this the past couple of days.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 16:01:23
[Anonymous] 小菜鸟
2007-04-13 15:58:06
I've only recently started studying Chan Theory, currently on lessons 14 and 15. It mentions "Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán Trend Strength": the area formed by the intersection of the short-term and long-term moving averages between the end of the previous "kiss" and the start of the next "kiss." In two consecutive same-direction trends, when the Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán Trend Strength is weaker than the previous one, that constitutes "divergence."
But from Chan MM's example of 600519's weekly second-type buy point being a first-type buy point on the daily chart, the trend strength at its occurrence doesn't appear weaker than the previous same-direction trend. So why is there a divergence on June 18, 2004? From the MACD perspective, the green bars are indeed shorter than before, but the area of the trend isn't smaller either. Please enlighten me, Chan Sister!
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June 18, 2004 didn't make a new low, so how could there be weekly divergence? To identify the weekly second buy point, you need to analyze the daily or even 30-minute charts.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 16:02:23
[Anonymous] 钱少爱好多
2007-04-13 16:00:57
Finished my meeting and took a look — a little dip.
Ugh, missed it again......
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Pay attention to trading times: 14:00 and 14:45. These are sensitive times.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 16:03:30
[Anonymous] Sina User
2007-04-13 16:01:32
Chan MM
Is 600191 a third-type buy point?????????????????
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First clarify the level. A buy point without a specified level doesn't exist.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 16:04:07
[Anonymous] 飞
2007-04-13 16:03:02
Blogger! I ran away with half! And ran too early! I sold in the morning. Then it went up in the afternoon, so frustrating!!
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If your skills aren't good, it's better to sell too early than too late.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 16:05:58
[Anonymous] 炒汉奸
2007-04-13 15:56:20
Chan MM, is this a policy-driven market again?
Did some document leak again, giving the traitors a chance to ambush in the late session?
Something like this happened with the February rate hike too.
I imagine quite a few people got trapped today :)
History of course doesn't repeat itself
But I'd still love to see your detailed account of the Japanese stock market during the yen appreciation 20 years ago
I've read bits and pieces, but they all felt somewhat biased.
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Getting trapped today is their own fault. Not chasing highs is the number one principle of investing. If you already hold stocks, just hold on. If your skills aren't good, watch the 5-day moving average. If they are good, sell first and buy back. How could you get trapped? Buy points don't appear every single day.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 16:10:05
[Anonymous] 也许认识你
2007-04-13 16:02:08
Blogger, about the section on hub expansion:
In a 5-minute uptrend, there's hub A (down-up-down). A 1-minute or sub-minute level move goes up and leaves hub A, then a 5-minute (down-up-down, call it hub B) 3-segment overlaps with hub A producing expansion. Is this now a completed 30-minute hub? According to the hub definition, don't we need to wait for the completion of the 3rd 5-minute trend type before it can be considered a completed 30-minute hub?
If the 3rd 5-minute trend type has no overlap with hub A's oscillation range, but overlaps with hub B forming expansion — is that a 30-minute hub?
According to the hub definition, only three consecutive 5-minute trend types overlapping constitutes a 30-minute hub. How should this be understood?
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The overlap of three completed sub-level trend types — study the definition carefully. An incomplete trend type cannot be definitively assigned a level. For example, if a 1-minute hub isn't completed and oscillates out 1,000 segments, with 9 one-minute segments making 1 thirty-minute segment, what kind of hub would that be? Therefore, a trend type can only have its level confirmed after it's completed.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 16:11:15
Star
2007-04-13 16:08:41
I've always had a question about understanding hubs in consolidation. May I ask the blogger:
- Consolidation should only have one hub, so can it be understood as a+A+b, where segments a and b are mandatory? Must they be sub-level? For example, in a 30-minute consolidation,
a and b are 5-minute trend types, A is a 30-minute hub, say composed of A1+A2+A3, three 5-minute trend types forming a hub. So my question is: how many 5-minute trend types does a 30-minute consolidation require at minimum? 3 or 5?
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How many sub-levels does a hub require at minimum, you tell me?
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It should be that three segments suffice. But the issue is right here. Say for the 30-minute level, a downtrend completes due to divergence, and then a+A1+A2 appear, all 5-minute trend types. Then it can be seen as a completed 30-minute hub. But what if afterward it develops into a+A1+A2+A3+c, and then a third buy point appears signaling the completion of consolidation? Looking at the blogger's previous analyses, it seems the hub of this consolidation becomes A1+A2+A3. I'm very confused here. Could the blogger please explain? Thank you!!
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Three sub-level overlapping segments form a hub. Everything after that is extension.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 16:13:55
[Anonymous] 大愚
2007-04-13 15:56:47
Hello LZ,
I still have confusion about using MACD to judge divergence. Today, I saw that after a third buy point the stock made a new high, but the bars shortened. I wanted to sell, but then noticed the bars were taller than the previous sub-level's highest bar, so I didn't. Then the stock price came back down, and I missed a short-term trade.
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For bars, you look at the area, not whether they've shortened. You also need to check whether the yellow and white lines have pulled back to the zero axis. All this has been repeatedly explained — study it carefully.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 16:19:51
Everyone, keep tempering yourselves repeatedly in the market. A person who can move freely in the market — nothing can disturb them.
If your emotions can prevent you from seeing buy and sell points, then no technique is of any use. You must feel the rhythm of the market — only then can you reduce costs.
In a major bull market, you must not lose your shares, but costs must keep decreasing. This has been stated repeatedly. If costs don't decrease, you cannot withstand the risk of short-term oscillations.
Those with good skills are happy when they see oscillation — costs can be reduced again. Otherwise, you're just riding an elevator, going up and down enjoying the ride.
Alright, it's the weekend. This ID is going out to indulge. I'll be back Sunday to play The Four Seasons.
Goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/4/13 15:33:16
As said yesterday, this is a time that tests the wisdom of the regulators. Today's market movement is very normal, and the late-session decline is even more normal. This kind of 2:45 PM dive — it's hardly the first time, and it's not hard to handle technically. This is also what this ID has repeatedly emphasized: a great opportunity to use techniques of selling first and buying back later to reduce costs.
On the fundamentals side, everyone is a bit worried about the regulators' possible stance, and the first attack targets of Shenzhen 10,000 and Shanghai 3,500 have been reached, so it's only natural to undergo consolidation and stabilization through oscillation. Retreating in order to advance is the best choice. Now it depends on the regulators' short-term attitude. With a 20-year bull market, there's plenty of time ahead. This ID has always opposed being eager for quick results. Undertaking consolidation at this level will benefit the broader market's future movements.
Individual stocks remain active, but this ID opposes reckless speculation — this has been stated many times. Such behavior only gives the traitors more ammunition for their whining, and the regulators' intelligence and experience are limited, which will ultimately harm the market itself. Some stocks' performance today was a bit excessive. The market itself needs to cool down and let everyone calm down. This ID does not want to see the interests of everyone in the market being damaged because of a few people's impatient greed.