The 4778-Point Pressure After the Expected Rebound

2008/1/23 15:16:53

Nothing much to say today—everything that needed to be said was said yesterday. Regarding this rebound point, it was already discussed in the lessons from the past two days—this is what the absolute one-to-one correspondence between this ID's theoretical output and actual market movement dictates.

But even so, everyone's actual trading results will certainly vary enormously. Why? This is the crux of the matter. According to the theory, the corresponding opportunities are known in advance—just wait for the market to actually produce them. But when it comes to actual execution, the skill gap is enormous. Why? This is the best question each person can ask themselves.

This ID most despises a type of person who never watches the actual price action. Ask yourself: during the market's 4-hour trading day, what were you actually doing? Every day's movement is painted by countless amounts of capital—the world's most expensive painting. If you don't properly appreciate it and refine your skills from it, think about what you've actually been doing. Do you even deserve this?

Especially for beginners: you must learn to interpret the market's language in every second of the price action. If you don't immerse yourself completely and become one with the movement, you think you can beat the market? Dream on.

This ID's theory is the grammar of the market's language. But can you really learn a language with just grammar? Without daily practice, is it even possible?

All those riding the elevator, crying and screaming at every drop—think about what you've actually been doing. Even if the opportunities are laid out for you, imagine what your execution would look like.

Where in the market do you find cheap, effortless success? Wake up.

Put bluntly, beating the market means beating the market's resultant force—beating the vast majority of people who constitute that force. If you don't become the absolute top tier among all market participants, then talking about success is pure nonsense. This is a comprehensive battle of intellect, stamina, and capital among human beings—a bloody struggle of blood against blood. You think it's like a Super Girl competition where you can just gossip around and take shortcuts?

Cling to delusions and you'll never find a way out.

If you want to learn, take a close look at every minute of the oscillating charts for stocks like 600737, 600635, 000938, 000802, 600779, 600195, 000822, 600636, and others in these recent shakeouts. See how oscillations can extract even more blood than an uptrend.

Note, this ID is talking about learning here, not the stocks themselves. It's just that the charts of stocks are drawn with money. If you don't respect the charts, the charts will naturally punish you.

Returning to the market itself: the second 1-minute hub arrived as expected. But as long as this 1-minute level cannot produce a third-type buy point and effectively reclaim 4778 points, the oscillation ahead will continue—but this will provide more short-term profit opportunities.

The market's possible paths:

The best scenario is directly forming a third-type buy point from this 1-minute hub, then forming a line-segment or 1-minute-level uptrend to return above 5100 points. The prerequisite for this path is that third-type buy point.

The second-best scenario is forming a 5-minute hub here first, then producing a third-type buy point. There are two pathways: one is 9 sub-level oscillations expanding into a 5-minute level, the other is a 1-minute third-type sell point followed by a bottom divergence rising back up to produce the 5-minute level. This creates N guaranteed short-term opportunities.

The worst scenario is a third-type sell point emerging from this 5-minute level, which could even constitute the first hub of a 5-minute decline. In that case, the subsequent movement would be even worse than before.

Since the current trend has such complex evolutionary possibilities, operations must strictly follow the charts. Once a situation arises where 4778 points cannot be reclaimed at the 5-minute level, one must watch for any signs of evolution toward the worst-case scenario.

As this ID said at 5209 points: if it can't hold 5209, the bulls will be boiled like frogs. The same applies here. In the rebound oscillation ahead, we use technique to earn handsomely, and then once the bulls falter, we boil them like frogs again and drink the broth.

Of course, if the bulls deliver, we don't mind accompanying them back above 5000 for another round. But we only look at the charts. If the bulls can paint such a chart, we follow. Otherwise, we boil the water and wait for the frogs to jump in.

Your way of thinking must fundamentally change. Let all the one-track-minded frogs be—this is the market.

Signing off, goodbye.