The Last Sentence of Mr. Wen Jiabao's Press Conference Is Worth Questioning!

2006/3/14 21:57:34

Today, Mr. Wen Jiabao, prompted by Wang Xiaoya's "Happy Dictionary"-style question, gave an answer regarding the RMB issue. His final sentence went like this: "The kind of administrative, one-time measures to make the RMB either appreciate or depreciate will no longer exist, and unexpected things will no longer happen." This statement is well worth discussing and questioning.

"Will no longer exist," in Chinese, implies that something once existed and persisted until recently; "will no longer happen," in Chinese, implies that something once happened. "No longer," in Chinese, corresponds to a strong commitment and slightly carries the sense of remedying certain consequences caused by what previously existed or happened. If understood in the most standard Chinese interpretation, does this imply some kind of remedy for the past "administrative, one-time measures to make the RMB either appreciate or depreciate" and the "unexpected things that happened"?

Clearly, connecting this to Mr. Wen Jiabao's preceding remarks: "What I want to clarify is that under the current mechanism, based on market changes, the RMB has the room and capability to float upward or downward autonomously." This merely indicates that after those "administrative, one-time measures to make the RMB either appreciate or depreciate and certain unexpected things happened," the "current mechanism" was formed. Therefore, those "administrative, one-time measures to make the RMB either appreciate or depreciate and certain unexpected things" leave no room for remedy — that is to say, what once existed and happened is all confirmed, and serves as the foundation for what continues going forward.

This foundation certainly requires strategic questioning — this has already been addressed in "Currency War and the RMB War." Beyond that, there is another significant issue: since "unexpected things" follows "will no longer happen," it can only refer to subjective matters. Otherwise, who could guarantee that objectively unexpected events "will no longer happen"? Just as no one can guarantee that tsunamis or earthquakes "will no longer happen." If the "unexpected things" that "will no longer happen" are subjective, does this mean that strategically and tactically proactive "unexpected things" "will no longer happen"? This kind of thing should never be committed to as something that "will no longer happen" — the key is who the "their" in "unexpected" refers to. In currency warfare, no one would or needs to proactively commit that strategically and tactically proactive "unexpected things" "will no longer happen."

What should happen, let it happen. Currency warfare is like actual warfare — setting aside strategy and tactics for the moment, catching the enemy off guard absolutely does not apply only within the scope defined by Sun Tzu's Art of War; it applies equally in currency warfare. Just look at the history of currency wars — battle cases are endless. "War is deception" — currency warfare is the same! Of course, just because it's Wang Xiaoya asking the question doesn't mean it should turn into a game show.