580989 Perfectly Reaches the Theoretically Required First Target

2008/1/28 15:20:28

When this ID mentioned 580989 on Friday, it wasn't for ordinary people to buy — that was made very clear. Continuing to discuss 580989 today is mainly for two points, both worth studying for anyone who wants to learn something: 1. The reason for initiating 580989 last Friday was precisely the instability on the news front, hence the choice to hedge risk on a large scale. 2. This initiation perfectly embodies this ID's theory — detailed analysis below.

Strong warning: 580989 will be worth less than paper in a few months. Especially after such a large rally, absolutely no one should participate anymore, unless you bought at the bottom fractals and have extremely high oscillation trading skills. This thing's ultimate fate is ZERO — please take extreme caution.

Returning to the broader market: over the weekend, the news was all unwelcome. The most serious was PetroChina preparing to bring 1 billion shares to market. However, this perfectly fulfills the objective described in the story this ID told — of course, that objective was just an approximate number, essentially to give the earliest buyers the thrill of a 50% haircut. Nothing more. Once those 1 billion shares come out, its vitality will increase somewhat, but without futures, it's destined to just thrash around — no big drama for now. And there can't be big drama, otherwise what about our beloved theme stocks?

The market today chose at the open: "Scenario one: if it ends around 4818 points, that's the weakest case. What follows won't be sparkling — we switch from sparkling to 10×10-meter sparkling instead." One line segment dropped 400 points, followed by a line segment rebound. If this rebound can't return to the original oscillation range, there's risk of gradually expanding into a 5-minute third-type sell point.

Regarding the current situation, this has been stated very clearly before: the worst case is forming a 5-minute downtrend's first hub below 4778 points. Once this occurs, the subsequent decline could be even more brutal.

So let's discuss what circumstances could produce such a scenario. The only real possibility is a 1987-style crash in the US. Honestly, this ID would love to see that. If that happened in the short term, 580989 would probably get pumped to N yuan. More importantly, seeing American devils suffer always makes this ID rather happy, so this ID wouldn't mind such a scenario at all. But 99.999% chance it won't happen. Tonight, whether the US continues cutting rates is crucial.

Under normal circumstances, this worst-case scenario won't materialize. After all, the annual moving average is right there. In the outlook for this year, this ID already stated clearly: we'll touch the annual MA at least twice this year, and the first time should be a comedy.

The second-worst scenario is that this 5-minute hub is of the consolidation type, eventually expanding into a 30-minute one. In this case, it's still just an oscillation — nothing to worry about.

The best scenario is that the 5-minute chart oscillates back, ultimately producing a third-type buy point. But your thinking must absolutely not be entirely occupied by this best-case scenario, or it will blind you.

On individual stocks: today there were still more than a few stocks stubbornly making new highs. Once the broader market stabilizes, everything due to explode will explode. Watch carefully for those using the dip to wash out positions — theme stocks continue to be red hot.

Below, please carefully analyze the chart of 580989. The textbook precision is self-evident. On the 60-minute chart, there's a bottom divergence coming down from 2.3, then today's pullback into the hub indicated by the first red arrow — perfectly conforming to this ID's theory for the minimum pullback range. Going forward it's simple: first, oscillation around that hub. If there's opportunity — such as a US 1987 scenario — then blast off to the sky. If by April/May the US still hasn't had its 1987 moment, then it goes to zero. That simple.

Note: this is study material. Ordinary people absolutely must not get involved — otherwise all consequences are your own responsibility.