Ultra-Short-Term Rebound Imminent

2008/1/22 15:12:04

Before reading today's post, if you haven't read the following, please read it first: "2008 Market Outlook 2007-12-20 15:59:05"

The market's movement is consistent with what was discussed in last night's lesson — that is, waiting for the first opportunity: a quasi-divergence in the line segment decline. Obviously, after this morning's rebound, the second quasi-hub has formed, so this first small opportunity is imminent, constituting a short-term rebound.

This rebound will at minimum construct a 1-minute hub. Since there's already a hub around 5100, the probability is extremely high that this constitutes the second hub of a 1-minute decline. Unless there's a line-segment-style immediate recovery back to 5100 points, this is the only scenario.

After the 1-minute hub forms, there are two possibilities: expansion into a 5-minute hub or a 1-minute downtrend divergence. In the worst case, this rebound constitutes a pullback to test the break of 4778 points, followed by another probe lower. Therefore, whether 4778 points can be recaptured is the most critical short-term question.

Grasping the above opportunity depends on your skill. Without the skill, continue waiting until the daily bottom fractal is confirmed before entering — this way, the risk is relatively small.

Note: this pullback has many factors both within and outside the stock market. From a long-term perspective, such a move is necessary. Even in the simplest scenario — if the stamp duty remains as it is, nobody can survive. Additionally, those so-called big players, casually making outrageous demands — if this situation isn't given a warning, nobody can survive going forward.

Maintaining the rules of the market game is sometimes very cruel. There's nothing more to say about that.

Take note: this year is a year of the "well." The well can be above or below. This year, only good mindset plus good technique can lead to success.

Those with good mindset who ride an elevator up and down — after this elevator ride, you'd best also improve your technique along the way. As for those with poor mindset — they'll fall into the well from above, then fall into the well again from below. This ID's frog porridge will have plenty of ingredients.

Be a frog or be a hunter — figure it out for yourself.

Heading out now, goodbye.