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The Four Fates of Investors This Year

2008/1/18 11:45:59

A shareholder meeting starts right after the close this afternoon—no time to write a market review. Tonight these guys won't let this ID off the hook, so I'll make up for it over the weekend if there's time. Apologies.

This morning's movement was consistent with what was said yesterday: after two days of dazzling brightness, oscillation continues but with reduced amplitude. However, since 5209 points has not been reclaimed, the market overall is still in a calming phase after extreme volatility, with significant instability factors and emotions needing time to settle. Additionally, weekend policy news and external factors still have enormous psychological impact.

Below, I'm posting a piece I'd already written—consider it today's post.

In the year-end outlook at the end of last year, the volatility and operational difficulty of this year's market were clearly identified.

This year is "walking alongside a well." Generally speaking, those without sufficient self-awareness who try to rely on crutches will have trouble this year. Investing is a specialized discipline, and the prerequisite is that you must first be a person with independent thought, not a puppet.

As this ID said in that post about the script—even if the script is given to you, many people will still end up falling into the well. Why? Because first of all, many people apparently learned Chinese from Confucius Man, with Chinese comprehension approaching zero, so they probably can't even read the script. For example, this passage was written at the time: "The script is very displeased with the gap from 5860 to 5912. Quite a bit of glue has already been prepared, but there's still a shortage. When the remaining glue will be ready depends on the policy direction during the 5462–5675 point time window. If the wind blows the wrong way, then the glue money gets converted to lollipop money—one lollipop for everyone. See if you want the stick or the candy."

If you actually interpret that as the market definitely having to reach 5675 first, then go to Confucius Man and demand a refund for your Chinese lessons. May I ask: is 5522 between 5462 and 5675? Is handing out lollipops at that point even slightly in violation of the script? The key is: during this process, did you eat the stick or the candy? Those with good technique were already euphoric during this oscillation; those without technique and with poor mentality—not getting the stick would be a cosmic injustice.

"One lollipop for everyone—see if you want the stick or the candy." Ponder this sentence well—it carries meaning for the entire year.

Second, some people understood it and saw the daily top fractal after 5522 points, but simply lacked confidence in their own judgment and needed a crutch. Fine—even if this ID hints at a crutch of "1 or 2 dazzling days," when it actually comes, you probably won't be in the mood for crutches anyway.

This ID published "Teaching You to Trade Stocks 93: The Dual Surface-Depth Relationship of Trend Structure 2 2008-01-15 18:08:05" on the evening when the daily top fractal appeared. Many people read it and thought it was repetitive, no different from before. Now go back and look at how targeted it was. Have you chosen your position? What type are you? Have you handled the corresponding processing?

Execution is not a purely academic discussion—it's all in the details. What are details? Your own skill level is the number one detail. Then choosing operations that match your level—that's the second biggest detail. Finally, executing according to the operational procedure—that's the totality of trading.

In the market, if you don't first understand yourself clearly, everything is nonsense.

The reason this ID writes this post is that only a bit over 10 days have passed in 2008. If you don't thoroughly wake up now, this year will be a disaster for many people. The best choice is to exit immediately.

This year, everyone will face one of four fates:

  1. Those with good technique and good mentality will make even more money than last year. Don't underestimate oscillation profits. Looking back, from 6124 points to today, it's only been a 30-minute consolidation—just one where the hub sits a bit low, around 5209 points. Anyone who sorts out the line segments, 1-minute, 5-minute, and 30-minute levels clearly will have more than enough for retail trading. According to this ID's theory, from mid-2005 to now, the move has at most been a daily-level one. A single daily-level move has already lasted over 2 years—from that you can appreciate the breadth of this ID's system.

  2. Those with good technique but poor mentality. This type is almost nonexistent, because once your technique is truly good, you see everything clearly and your mentality naturally follows. If such a person really exists, their result this year would be just some modest earnings.

  3. Those with poor technique but good mentality. This year they ride the elevator like an advertisement, and eventually, after too many rides, the elevator wears out—there's a risk of a major accident, like suddenly plunging from the 20th floor to the negative 18th floor.

  4. Those with poor technique and even worse mentality. This year will be their disaster year—the perfect slaughter targets.

This year, a piece of advice for everyone with poor technique: once you have sufficient profit and bad signals appear, make sure to take back your principal first.

Additionally, a hint for those with greater ambitions: look at the stocks this ID has mentioned as an investment portfolio, and you'll notice something very interesting—they rise and fall in turn, with almost no idle days. Why? For large capital, this is the most efficient approach. Capital can flow with maximum efficiency, allowing both shakeouts and power surges, dynamically inflating.

In fact, this ID clearly stated at the beginning of last year that this ID's stock portfolio works exactly this way. If you're a retail investor who can nimbly rotate among the portfolio's buy and sell points, your returns will be staggeringly impressive—far better than chasing any dark-horse stock, and extremely safe. Of course, achieving this isn't easy, but think of it as a test and an improvement. Even if you can't do it now, you should at least be aware of it. Otherwise, high capital efficiency becomes very difficult to achieve.

Note: your portfolio choices don't have to follow this ID's. This ID's can serve as a teaching model.

However, those without this level of skill and awareness should forget about it. Let's be practical—not everyone can become a master. For most people, a lifetime of effort amounts to just this much. That's the honest truth.

Some things are only said for certain people. Not every mountaintop in the world can or needs to be stood upon by everyone. First understand yourself clearly, then unleash your own energy—if you can do that, then you are someone who can stand at the very peak.

At that ultimate peak—eternal sky stretching across ten thousand ages.