Ping An's Cosmetic Market-Support Farce Unfolds on Cue
2008/3/6 15:13:00
As clearly stated yesterday, Ping An would certainly stage a market-supporting operation to garner regulatory approval, creating the atmosphere they need. Today, this market-support farce was performed right on cue. The only upside, as also mentioned yesterday, is that it gives the broader market some short-term support. But if this farce ultimately succeeds, the credibility of China's capital market will be completely bankrupt.
Technically, the oscillation around the original 5-minute hub near 4331 points continues, but 4391 points still cannot be held. Therefore, the back-and-forth here persists. Only by firmly holding 4391 points can there be ammunition to attack 4695 points. Currently, this still requires effort. The MACD red bars are maintained, but the pullback strength is quite limited, making the risk of an aborted move entirely non-negligible.
So, in the short term, 4391 points remains the most critical level. Any upward push at this level that lacks strength will inevitably lead to a powerful pullback — this is something ultra-short-term traders must pay attention to.
On individual stocks, although index heavyweights showed some activity driven by Ping An, the strength was limited. With no momentum to chase highs, sustained moves are temporarily unlikely. From the government work report, it's quite obvious that index futures are not a priority for this year's work. As for the CSRC's wishful thinking — when they tried to rush the launch at the end of last year, this ID already condemned it harshly. Index futures — how could that be something a minor ministerial-level agency can decide? So they should know their place and stop creating false impressions in the market.
This ID's position has always been clear. Three things I hope to see this year: first, the launch of the ChiNext board; second, a stamp duty reduction; third, index futures being stillborn. From the current state of affairs, the probability of full realization remains extremely high.
In terms of price gains today, it's still the world of mid-to-low-priced stocks, except sector rotation has occurred — agriculture, venture capital, etc. are resting, while Olympics and consumer staples like papermaking have started up. This is perfectly normal sector rotation. In short, keep tracking promising sectors. If your skills are up to it, participate in the rotation; if not, skip it.
Note: rotation trading absolutely means selling the hot sectors on rallies and then absorbing promising sectors showing signs of activation — not chasing highs. If you can't grasp this rhythm, just don't trade.
Mid-term, if the red bars expand this time but still can't effectively hold above 4695 points, or even 4391 points can't be held, then the market breaking down again is hardly fantasy. Let me remind you again: this year's operations will definitely be of the back-and-forth variety — don't expect one-directional non-stop moves.
Signing off, goodbye.
缠中说禅 2008/3/7 13:08:47
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