The First Dark Cloud Drifting Across the Stock Market's Clear Sky in Two Years
2007/5/29 8:16:51
Regarding the draft "Guidelines on Market Manipulation," some exposure already appeared in newspapers over the weekend. To be honest, if these guidelines were implemented, they would be a truly vicious move targeting the current market. Some of the provisions would have a severe impact on the market's operational landscape. If we say that previous interest rate hikes were like blowing a puff of air at a blazing sun, then these guidelines are the first dark cloud drifting across the stock market's clear sky in two years. It's just that the market currently has too many retail investors, who tend to react sluggishly and feel nothing, overlooking a genuine hidden danger.
Let's first review some history. The historic market top in 2001 was triggered after the sensational, unprecedented nearly 900-million-yuan penalty against Yian Technology. Of course, the market's ultimate reaction was somewhat delayed — that's normal, because when a sudden event occurs, it's perfectly normal for the market to need time to understand and react. Don't assume the market can always respond most quickly and fully — the market is often extremely sluggish.
Let me quote a couple of ludicrous provisions from these closed-door so-called guidelines:
"Trading a certain security more than twice in one trading day, or more than three times in two trading days, constitutes continuous trading." ("Most importantly, under the new recognition guidelines, buy and sell orders without execution can also count as continuous trading; for another example, regarding arranged trading, as long as the buy and sell order prices of both parties are close, that can constitute the conditions for such manipulation.")
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If the sentences above were describing the physiological condition of some gigolo or the guideline drafters themselves, this ID would have no objections. But applying them to regulate every market participant's behavior — that's unacceptable. First, not all market participants are gigolos, and even if they were, they wouldn't necessarily be the kind of super-weak males who can't manage twice a day or three times in two days. This provision has a super-serious bias favoring men — and favoring weak men at that — which is simply outrageous. Let's talk practically: if you want to buy 10,000 shares but couldn't buy at 9 yuan, then cancel and re-enter at 9.01 yuan — does that constitute "continuous trading"? Or say you want to buy 1,000,000 shares and split it into 10 orders — that's even more of a "continuous trading"? Is it that buying 1,000,000 shares can only be done with one single order, and you can't even cancel it? Then will you definitely get filled? They might as well just mandate a daily share limit. Under this garbage guideline, placing orders at different prices already constitutes a violation. Clearly, those who drafted these so-called guidelines not only have questionable functionality below the belt, but their above-the-belt functionality is unquestionably and extremely suspect.
"Within the same trading day, within the valid price range of the same security, in the same direction, the behavior of continuously and alternately submitting and canceling orders three or more times will be deemed 'manipulative false declaration.'"
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Those who drafted this provision have apparently never traded a stock. Even an ordinary retail investor — if a stock suddenly surges and they want to chase-buy it, but their orders fail three consecutive times and they have to cancel and re-enter at higher prices — isn't this extremely common? Furthermore, doesn't this guideline pride itself on being so detailed and refined? Then what exactly counts as "frequent"? One second or one minute? If it's one minute, then 61 seconds is no longer frequent? Aren't submissions and cancellations inherently alternating — can you cancel without first submitting? After canceling a buy order, must you submit a sell order just to avoid being "in the same direction"? This kind of absurd guideline is as utterly shameless as regulating that only one position is allowed during certain activities.
This ID's position on such absurd guidelines is very clear. Since this concerns fundamental market trading systems, this ID does not fancy such garbage rules that dictate only one position is allowed. Therefore, once such a system is implemented, this ID will leave this market completely. The money this ID has earned is enough for a life of wine, women, and a new gigolo every day for a hundred-some lifetimes — why should I endure the constraints of this bird-brained guideline? Besides, the world is big, and no market anywhere else on the planet has such garbage guidelines. This ID can make money wherever I go — why hang myself on one tree? Or I'll just switch entirely to playing the cultural circle and smash the likes of Kong-the-man, Li-the-man, and such into a gigolo-membrane — face mask for short.
The more important issue is that this absurd guideline will inevitably degenerate into a powerful tool for rent-seeking through power. The more detailed the guideline, the more powerful the tool. Frankly, these pathetic guidelines will ultimately just be killing the chicken to scare the monkey, and have nothing to do with this ID at all. Do you think lions and crocodiles would watch such performances? However, this ID looks down on the insipid schemes and insipid consequences behind such insipid performances — what purpose these insipid performances serve goes without this ID needing to say.
Since the regulation is only a draft, there is still the possibility of correction. Below, the truly meaningful thing to do is to mercilessly attack this regulation, thoroughly expose it, and ensure that the provisions seriously harmful to the market cannot be implemented. Don't think this has nothing to do with retail investors — look at your own usual operations: how many times have you violated the provisions above? There are even more absurd provisions that this ID hasn't cited — the above two general ones are already nauseating enough; I don't want to disgust everyone completely.
Of course, it must be made clear that a dark cloud doesn't necessarily mean a downpour. But having a dark cloud swaying in this clear sky is certainly nauseating. And even under such trading conditions, this ID's theory remains valid — it's just that the corresponding operational level must be significantly raised. From a purely technical standpoint, no matter what wind or rain — everything is handled in the operations!
But this ID must still remind you: stocks are all just waste paper. If you have already profited from stocks, then first improve your own living conditions, and be good to those who deserve it. I noticed yesterday that a blog friend "White Magnolia" said they took money out to buy a house for their parents — that's a wonderful thing. Making money but not spending it, being a miser — is your brain waterlogged? First take care of yourself and your family's living situation, take out your principal, and continue the stock market game with the money earned from stocks. That way, no matter how many dark clouds fill the sky, no matter how much wind and rain, you can act without any hesitation.
But no matter what, the pattern of China's great bull market will not be changed by this, and absurd things ultimately cannot be truly implemented.
Appendix:
There are still two days until the monthly close, and these two days are extremely critical. Today the market stayed above yesterday's hub the entire day, so there are no technical issues whatsoever. Today's market was a balanced market where the highs and lows of the first three 30K candles were all broken. Tomorrow will test the support at the 4323 morning high. If this level is not effectively broken, the market is ultra-strong. If broken, a new hub forms, essentially centered around 4300, and then it's the game of hub oscillation until a third-type buy/sell point emerges.
As repeatedly stated before, this ID's script is Wave 3 of Wave 3. Whether it can ultimately succeed requires effort from all parties. Part of this effort is that anything harmful to the market must be promptly and thoroughly countered — for example, yesterday's market commentary and today's article are mainly for this purpose. If everyone stays silent, then certain bitter fruits will be planted. When you taste those bitter fruits later, don't regret not having joined forces to destroy those evil seeds. The market belongs to everyone, not to this ID alone, nor to the regulators. Evil weeds must be pulled — only then can the market possibly develop according to the script.
I just looked at the replies, and some people think this ID is about to flee and has turned bearish. I truly don't know how these people studied their language classes. Which word did this ID say about fleeing? This ID said if that thing becomes reality, I'll stop playing — but has that thing become reality? The key is that whether that thing becomes reality is a result of collective force. This ID's meaning is very obvious: we should work together to kill that thing. This ID was still worried this morning that people might misunderstand, so at 9 AM I specially came back to add the red-text sentence: "
But no matter what, the pattern of China's great bull market will not be changed by this, and absurd things ultimately cannot be truly implemented."
Do you know why Confucius is Confucius? One of the most important reasons is: he acted on what he knew was impossible. Right now, there isn't even the premise of impossibility — so why not work together? The script has been written, but people are still needed to act it out.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 15:31:36
There are still two days until the monthly close, and these two days are extremely critical. Today the market stayed above yesterday's hub the entire day, so there are no technical issues whatsoever. Today's market was a balanced market where the highs and lows of the first three 30K candles were all broken. Tomorrow will test the support at the 4323 morning high. If this level is not effectively broken, the market is ultra-strong. If broken, a new hub forms, essentially centered around 4300, and then it's the game of hub oscillation until a third-type buy/sell point emerges.
As repeatedly stated before, this ID's script is Wave 3 of Wave 3. Whether it can ultimately succeed requires effort from all parties. Part of this effort is that anything harmful to the market must be promptly and thoroughly countered — for example, yesterday's market commentary and today's article are mainly for this purpose. If everyone stays silent, then certain bitter fruits will be planted. When you taste those bitter fruits later, don't regret not having joined forces to destroy those evil seeds. The market belongs to everyone, not to this ID alone, nor to the regulators. Evil weeds must be pulled — only then can the market possibly develop according to the script.
I just looked at the replies, and some people think this ID is about to flee and has turned bearish. I truly don't know how these people studied their language classes. Which word did this ID say about fleeing? This ID said if that thing becomes reality, I'll stop playing — but has that thing become reality? The key is that whether that thing becomes reality is a result of collective force. This ID's meaning is very obvious: we should work together to kill that thing. This ID was still worried this morning that people might misunderstand, so at 9 AM I specially came back to add the red-text sentence: "
But no matter what, the pattern of China's great bull market will not be changed by this, and absurd things ultimately cannot be truly implemented."
Do you know why Confucius is Confucius? One of the most important reasons is: he acted on what he knew was impossible. Right now, there isn't even the premise of impossibility — so why not work together? The script has been written, but people are still needed to act it out.
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 15:37:34
[Anonymous] 渺渺天涯渺渺Autumn
2007-05-29 15:09:07
Market close, submitting my questions. Sitting and waiting to consult the blogger:
Original text: "First consider the case where a+A is upward. Obviously, Ai is downward when I is odd and upward when I is even. Initially A1 and A2 appear, and A1 must not break below a's low. If A2 breaks above a's high and A3 doesn't fall back to a's high, then we can treat a+A1+A2+A3 as a new a', still a 5-minute level trend type."
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As described in the original text above, a+A1+A2+A3 is still a 5-minute level trend type. If I look at it with the following combination:
a+A = (a+A1+A2)+A3
Since (a+A1+A2) constitutes a 30-minute hub, then a+A would be a 30-minute level trend type. In other words, from different combination perspectives, a+A can be either a 30-minute level trend type or a 5-minute level trend type — is that correct? -
Following the above view, if there are subsequently A4 and A5, where A4's low breaks below A1's high, are the following two combinations also valid?
I. a+A1+A2+A3+A4+A5 = (a+A1+A2+A3+A4)+A5, where (a+A1+A2+A3+A4) is treated as a 5-minute level trend type;
II. a+A1+A2+A3+A4+A5 = (a+A1+A2)+(A3+A4+A5), where (a+A1+A2) is treated as a 5-minute trend type, oscillating around the (A3+A4+A5) 30-minute hub. -
For the second combination method, if there is subsequently an upward A6, then from the perspective of oscillation around the (A3+A4+A5) hub, should A6 be compared in strength with A2, or with (a+A1+A2) treated as a 5-minute level trend type?
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Also, if A2 shows a consolidation divergence compared to a, then A3 must break below a's high — that's easy to understand. But if A2 does not show consolidation divergence compared to a, aside from the situation where a small-level divergence turns into a large-level reversal, does A3 definitely not break below a's high?
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Answering this way isn't very useful either. If anyone has time, draw all these as diagrams and then tell this ID the URL. This ID can then give a dedicated explanation in the course. This ID only knows how to use computers, not keen on studying and researching them, so I haven't looked into the business of drawing diagrams and uploading them — please forgive me.
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 15:40:42
Announcement
Now that there's a message box, if you have technical questions — preferably typical ones — send the diagram URL to this ID, and I can explain them very carefully in the course. This way the effect is better, and it benefits everyone.
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 15:46:43
[Anonymous] 忠实的粉丝
2007-05-29 15:41:38
Dear blogger, visiting you daily has become my required course. I also increasingly feel that "seeing" you is getting harder and harder. After diligently lurking, today I'm shamelessly surfacing to ask for help: due to not having learned the technique well, I recently followed the crowd and tried picking a stock with terrible performance but seemingly strong momentum — 000506. May I ask if it's been delisted? Will it have a chance to resume trading? Thank you.
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You're talking about the former Sichuan Salt Chemical? This stock will be suspended for a very long time, but there's a major restructuring. Just sit back and wait to count your money.
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 15:50:24
[Anonymous] 水房姑娘
2007-05-29 15:44:17
Chan-M, it's not that our language skills are bad — the implications in this piece are just too strong~ Just looking at the title "The First Dark Cloud Drifting Across the Stock Market's Clear Sky in Two Years" — it's equivalent to the first bearish call since the number-one blog began.
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The metaphor is very clear. This ID even specifically stated in the article that a dark cloud doesn't necessarily mean a downpour. But whether this dark cloud ultimately triggers a downpour depends on everyone's efforts. However, under current conditions, gradually cashing out your principal and money that should be spent is an essential practice. Once all that is taken out, your operations will be even more fearless, safer, and more effective.
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 15:53:10
[Anonymous] 赚到了
2007-05-29 15:45:18
"First take care of yourself and your family's living situation, take out your principal, and continue the stock market game with the money earned from stocks. That way, no matter how many dark clouds fill the sky, no matter how much wind and rain, you can act without any hesitation."
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Sigh, Chan-MM, I read the above words, misunderstood, and liquidated everything. What should I do now?
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Wasn't what I wrote perfectly clear? When this ID speaks, aside from not being able to name specific stocks, when haven't I been direct? If I truly wanted everyone to liquidate, I would say so openly. What I clearly said here is that you can first take out your principal and take out money that should be spent. As for having already liquidated — that's no big deal either. There'll be plenty of oscillations, no shortage of opportunities to get back in. But the key is your capital must be safe, with no other worries.
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 16:04:32
[Anonymous] 空读
2007-05-29 15:49:11
Blogger: After an upward breakout from the hub, how do you determine near the highest point whether it's forming a third-type buy point or a top divergence or consolidation divergence?
I often find that before buying it looks like a third-type buy point, but after buying it looks like a top.
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Everyone must first settle the level. Like today's morning high — it's of a very small level, not hard to spot on the 1-minute chart. The subsequent 3-wave decline didn't break yesterday's hub, essentially confirming the retest of yesterday's hub, at which point you can cover the positions sold at the high.
Of course, this is very short-term operations. Those without this operational ability should watch the 5-day moving average. This has been said repeatedly.
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 16:06:45
[Anonymous] 新股手
2007-05-29 16:04:01
"If I truly wanted everyone to liquidate, I would say so openly."
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With this statement from the boss, I feel reassured.
I'll never do the foolish thing of going fully empty again!
Hold the chips, stay in the market!
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When to liquidate? That's when a divergence appears on the daily chart. Is there a divergence on the daily chart right now? At most, there are just some 30-minute divergences, which can be handled entirely through hub oscillation techniques.
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 16:08:35
[Anonymous] 白玉兰
2007-05-29 16:06:54
Hello sister!
Just got on today. Seeing that sister used precious space to praise me — I'm quite embarrassed, because I haven't done enough.
I only sold 999 and CCID Media.
But I bought 2000 shares of 139. I didn't escape entirely — still have Beijing People, Shandong Environmental.
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If you've already taken out what should be taken, then you can operate the remainder with even more peace of mind. That way, the money taken out will soon come back.
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 16:09:37
This ID has a major feast tonight — can't chat anymore. Signing off for now, goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 16:17:56
One more thing: those with empty positions, absolutely don't chase highs. Make sure to use oscillation low points to re-enter, otherwise you'll get slapped on both cheeks. Trading must be done calmly — with cash in hand, everything is possible. Why worry about not finding good stocks?
Signing off. See you tomorrow morning.
缠中说禅 2007/5/29 8:18:08
Today's market commentary will be appended after market close. Signing off for now, goodbye.