To Hell with the Bulls Who Wanted to Pull a Big Rally Today

2007/10/22 15:25:35

First, with the warmest applause, let us congratulate the stock market for becoming thoroughly Peking University-fied from here on.

I heard the bulls wanted to pull a big rally today, just like last time when some bears said September 20th was a time window — this ID just loves making these people lose face. The world has become very Peking University-fied, the consequences are Peking University-fied, and this ID is happy-ing.

But this ID has nothing more to say — the feeling of having everything under control always leaves nothing to say. For the bears, the most beautiful applause right now is the cursing from the bulls — this must be the most melodious music in the world.

The 1-minute downtrend that began from such an exquisite point of 6124.04, continues with hubs shifting ever lower. Right now it has closed exactly on the lower rail of the ascending channel from 3600 points, and that gap at 5600 points is right before our eyes. Once this level is effectively broken, the correction targeting the rally from 3600 points will be confirmed.

Those with good technique can closely watch for the bottom divergence in the 1-minute downtrend from 6124.04 — then there will be a rebound to trade. Those without the skill, forget it — if you don't have the ability, just continue sitting on your little stool watching the show.

Being a bear means making money even during declines — that's what a true bear is. Buy at the bottom divergence, then dump on the way up — that's a rather exhilarating game. The key question is: do you have the potential for such exhilaration? If your portfolio value today is less than on the day of 6124.04, you'd better seriously reflect on your potential.

As for those without technique, if your portfolio value today is less than on the day of 6124.04, wait for an opportunity to exit. Though it's a bit late, this is the consequence of not correctly understanding yourself. If you get a chance to return to your portfolio value on the day of 6124.04, get out of some positions first — this way you still have a chance to be among that less-than-20%.

Note: we are now entering a policy-sensitive period. Though the probability favors the bears, a new official has just taken office and nobody can yet get a read on their style. This ID currently has no interest in the market — just like when this ID bought China National Aviation when it dropped below IPO price and called on everyone to buy, this ID actually had zero interest in China National Aviation, only interest in Mr. Li Jun.

After the 1-minute decline ends, there is a very high probability of entering a box pattern — a pattern suitable for sucking blood both up and down — then waiting for policy to complete the breakout. Right now this ID also really wants to know: in a certain gentleman's mind, does 5000 points count as high, and is there a bubble? If anyone knows, please tell this ID.

Meetings all afternoon and evening, signing off first, see you later.