Cable Cars Then Plank Roads, Through Wind and Rain XX (Market Analysis Appendix)
2007/6/25 19:03:22
Just got back from hiking in the mountains. The top local officials are waiting at the guest house for the banquet. Taking advantage of the time while changing clothes to say hello to everyone. This ID didn't look at the market at all today—first time in two years—and properly enjoyed a day out. The market analysis will be written after the social events. My apologies.
Sorry, just got back. It seems anything related to real industry is exhausting. Nothing beats the thrill of slashing in and out of the secondary market—at least you don't have to schmooze with people. Alone, in some bright or dark corner, you can summon wind and rain. Doesn't matter if you're some big shot—this ID does whatever this ID needs to do. But with industry-related matters, it's different. This ID's hiking enthusiasm today was completely ground down by this evening's tedious socializing. Seems this ID's temperament is better suited to the secondary market after all.
Today, those who stayed behind suffered. This ID said last Friday that whenever this ID goes on a business trip, stocks fall apart—hoped this time would be different, but apparently no dice. Technically, this ID already stated very clearly on Friday: "Therefore, one cannot currently confirm that the line segment is complete, unless 85's 4131 point is freshly broken above. From the hub perspective, the lower bound of the 75–84 five-minute hub is at 4188 points. If subsequent price action cannot reclaim that level, one should watch out for the formation of a 5-minute third-type sell point." Today's bounce, just like last week's 4244, reached an extremely precise high of exactly 4131 points—this is a very clear signal, and the subsequent decline was entirely justified. Currently the most critical level is 4025 points—that's the lower bound of the new 1-minute hub. If this level isn't reclaimed, the market could continue deteriorating. And 3982 is also very important; if it can be reclaimed, then at minimum a new 5-minute hub will evolve. If even this most basic condition cannot be met, then the market will inevitably step down in line segment form until a new 1-minute hub is formed. As for what level that will be, there's no need to predict—it can be easily determined in real-time using the divergence method.
Nothing much to say about individual stocks. Sell at sell points—naturally one hopes the next buy point is far enough away so the spread can be bigger. Those who don't sell at sell points can only enjoy the ride up and down. This ID has no interest in elevators. This ID only knows that when a sell point appears you sell, and when a buy point appears you buy. Look at the ones getting hammered hard right now—which of them looks good on the daily chart? Just looking at MACD tells you there's trouble, not to mention everything else. Of course, after enough decline, you should closely watch for the timing to buy back in. Not knowing to buy when a buy point appears—that one-track mind thinking is equally a sign of too much water on the brain.
This ID drank heroically today, stunning a bunch of male apes whose ages add up to several hundred years. Now the water content in my brain is also starting to increase, so I can't say much more. Tomorrow—the market analysis time can't be set, but as long as there's time, I'll definitely be here at the first opportunity.
Seems the brain's a bit waterlogged—it's not tomorrow, it's already today. Heading out now, goodbye.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/6/26 0:49:40
Sorry, just got back. It seems anything related to real industry is exhausting. Nothing beats the thrill of slashing in and out of the secondary market—at least you don't have to schmooze with people. Alone, in some bright or dark corner, you can summon wind and rain. Doesn't matter if you're some big shot—this ID does whatever this ID needs to do. But with industry-related matters, it's different. This ID's hiking enthusiasm today was completely ground down by this evening's tedious socializing. Seems this ID's temperament is better suited to the secondary market after all.
Today, those who stayed behind suffered. This ID said last Friday that whenever this ID goes on a business trip, stocks fall apart—hoped this time would be different, but apparently no dice. Technically, this ID already stated very clearly on Friday: "From the hub perspective, the lower bound of the 75–84 five-minute hub is at 4188 points. If subsequent price action cannot reclaim that level, one should watch out for the formation of a 5-minute third-type sell point." Today's bounce reached a high of exactly 4131 points—this is a very clear signal, and the subsequent decline was entirely justified. Currently the most critical level is 4025 points—that's the lower bound of the new 1-minute hub. If this level isn't reclaimed, the market could continue deteriorating. And 3982 is also very important; if it can be reclaimed, then at minimum a new 5-minute hub will evolve. If even this most basic condition cannot be met, then the market will inevitably step down in line segment form until a new 1-minute hub is formed. As for what level that will be, there's no need to predict—it can be easily determined in real-time using the divergence method.
Nothing much to say about individual stocks. Sell at sell points—naturally one hopes the next buy point is far enough away so the spread can be bigger. Those who don't sell at sell points can only enjoy the ride up and down. This ID has no interest in elevators. This ID only knows that when a sell point appears you sell, and when a buy point appears you buy. Look at the ones getting hammered hard right now—which of them looks good on the daily chart? Just looking at MACD tells you there's trouble, not to mention everything else. Of course, after enough decline, you should closely watch for the timing to buy back in. Not knowing to buy when a buy point appears—that one-track mind thinking is equally a sign of too much water on the brain.
This ID drank heroically today, stunning a bunch of male apes whose ages add up to several hundred years. Now the water content in my brain is also starting to increase, so I can't say much more. Tomorrow—the market analysis time can't be set, but as long as there's time, I'll definitely be here at the first opportunity.
Seems the brain's a bit waterlogged—it's not tomorrow, it's already today. Heading out now, goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/6/26 0:20:42
Sorry, only got back now after being busy. The zi hour is almost over. This ID will wash up and then write today's commentary.