Remember: The 1987 Stock Market Crash Happened on October 19th

2008/9/18 10:26:15

My body hasn't fully recovered, but the market has been in turmoil these past few days. Although it has nothing to do with this ID — in fact, I'm happy to see it fall — I'll reluctantly write a few words so you can all understand things more clearly.

Before the Olympics, this ID proposed the cliff theory. On September 4th, in response to the inane remarks by a few so-called prominent economic blowhards, I posted One Must Never Underestimate the Severity of Economic Adjustment (2008-09-04 15:30:25) — please review it again. Moreover, I repeatedly raised the question: what would happen once US stocks broke below 10,000? Looking at these past few days, that 10,000 level is clearly no steel plate.

Remember: the 1987 stock market crash happened on October 19th. This year happens to be exactly the 21st year — a magical number — and this is one important reason why this ID has been consistently worried about the economy. A short-term rebound will come soon, but the key still depends on overseas markets. To a certain extent, the domestic market has already been dictated by the US, which is exactly what this ID has repeatedly stressed must be avoided. But in the end, there's nothing that can be done — when heaven decides to rain, let it rain.

Of course, even a market crash is no big deal — didn't the market rise for another 20 years after '87? So a bottom in October remains possible, but it would require an even more violent crash. Otherwise, we'd truly have to wait for the 17-month cycle.

Those good at sprinting, watch for the imminent rebound — grab a bite and run. Also, pay close attention to changes in global news to see what tricks the Americans can pull with all their remaining strength.