Pure Technical Analysis of Short-Term Market Trends

2008/8/26 14:59:52

From just the simplest 5/13-day moving averages, one could tell that today or at the latest tomorrow would be a major turning point. The result: the market remained highly directional — downward. If it pulls back tomorrow but can't stand above the 5-day moving average, that line will become the simplest short-term reference standard going forward.

However, one thing must be noted: the buying support beneath the market is increasing daily. There's another possible evolution for the market — continuous probing downward that never actually constitutes real decline, but instead keeps expanding into a larger-level hub, waiting for the moving averages above to come down and form an entanglement around the current general area, before deciding the ultimate breakout direction. This is a very technically meaningful trend evolution, and the specific analysis will appear in future lessons.

Today hasn't ultimately destroyed the pattern of last week being the lowest bar of a weekly bottom fractal. In other words, as long as the market doesn't destroy this pattern this week, things are still interesting. Otherwise, it will continue probing down to an area that can accommodate this weekly bottom fractal.

I won't say much more. Everything follows chart-based operations — absolutely don't be single-minded.

Thanks everyone for the concern. I bought some kitchen appliances these past two days to make things more comfortable eating at home. Of course, doing it myself is just supplementary — for real meals I still depend on outside, since this ID can't possibly go grocery shopping every day. That's too much hassle. Making some sweet soup is manageable, and I bought some frozen pastries from outside that can be heated and eaten anytime. Just making do, getting some activity in — consider it exercise.

I'll probably be here for at least another two months. Tough it out and you get used to it.