Three Consecutive Up Days Before the Holiday? Not Allowed!
2008/2/1 15:17:48
I hear some people are still dreaming of three consecutive up days before the holiday — but that's simply not allowed! Similar fantasies include: now that the market has crashed, things will get better because of the Olympics and so on. Their brains must be waterlogged — don't think the stock market has any truly privileged status. Under a market economy, the stock market would naturally hold an absolutely high position, but that's not reality.
Please note something: I hear that this year's Spring Festival Gala will include a program that savagely mocks so-called "stock punters." If this program ultimately airs, it will be the greatest mockery of three decades of economic development. In modern economies, the highest form is virtualization. Over a hundred years ago, the United States was still inferior to Argentina — it was precisely because the US vigorously developed its virtual economy while Argentina did not that Argentina was ultimately left with nothing but the song "Don't Cry for Her."
"Stock punters" — this term is inherently insulting. They should be called "investors" — the great group of people who form the most important structure of modern economies. A nation that does not respect investors cannot have a strong virtual economy or a truly powerful economy — that is the conclusion of history.
If there's still even a sliver of fantasy in your brain, please reread this ID's article on the year's market outlook one more time: "2008 Market Outlook 2007-12-20 15:59:05"
This year's market is a "first movers get the bread" kind of trend. True investors already earned their first loaf of bread money during the December-to-January thematic stock rally. Some laughable people think: does the move from 4778 to 5522 even count as a rally? Don't look down on this segment — in a major bear market, this could be the largest rally of the entire year. And this year, there's a very high probability this is the second-largest upswing.
In the outlook, this ID very clearly stated that this year's rhythm is "first a small rise, then a decline, then a major rise, then a major decline," and further emphasized that "there are at least two tops that must be watched — the first is the top constructed by the second upward segment of the major correction from 6124 points. This is a minor top." 5522 points was exactly such a top.
This ID said during the "script" discussion: "The key is the policy direction during the 5462 to 5675 point window. If the direction is wrong, then first trade your glue money for lollipop money — one lollipop per person. Do you want the stick or the candy?" Clearly, after 5522 points, factors like Ping An and the US were enough to warrant swapping glue for lollipops. But the subsequent script remains valid — just like this ID told you PetroChina would at least halve. The bird glued together will come — that's the year's second wave of rally. Right now, we're merely preparing for that rally.
Probably no one noticed, but on January 15th, this ID deliberately published a post that many dismissed as rehashing old material. Please go back and look at the practical value of that post's content within that specific timing — look at whether you operated as the lesson described after the daily top fractal had just formed. If you really read the content carefully, do you still need this ID to tell you what to do? If you still don't understand, please read it again: "Teaching You Stock Trading 93: The Dual Surface-Depth Relationship of Trend Structure 2 2008-01-15 18:08:05"
Note: this ID is merely a sparring partner. The sparring partner's task is only to place the right tools before your eyes at the critical moment. If you can't see them, then so be it.
This ID's conclusions will sometimes be revised. For example, for PetroChina, the original assessment was like China Life — bottoming around 30 and then rising. That was because at the time, futures hadn't yet been suppressed. Later, once it became clear those instruments were being suppressed, this ID told everyone the "at least 24 yuan" banquet story — that's a revision. Why? Everything is a resultant of forces — when an important component force changes, revisions are naturally needed.
However, for things this ID hasn't mentioned, that means no revision. For instance, regarding the 20-year great bull market and the conclusion of at least 30,000 points in 20 years, this ID has no need for any revision. Unless China's economy self-destructs, this ID's conclusion requires no modification.
Actually, regarding one catalyst for the market's turnaround, this ID clearly stated it long ago — it's just that readers didn't pay attention. It's about waiting for the period around that 1 billion share PetroChina release. A bottom isn't formed in a single day — it must be forged through repeated creation of panic.
Some may feel this is very cruel. Of course it is — without panic, without people bleeding, where would a bottom come from?
What's been happening these past few days? It's the previously strong thematic stocks making their catch-up decline — this is mandatory in any bottoming process. Only after strong stocks complete their catch-up decline can the market enter genuine bottom construction. And this point was made by this ID long ago — nobody can hold up barbells forever.
So how does a rally gradually ignite? Igniting a rally always requires a leader — that is, someone foolish enough to run naked wildly, gradually awakening and exciting everyone else. The first to run naked generally falls into three categories: new listings or stocks with sudden major catalysts, plus the culprits of the previous rally's collapse and those that were suppressed earliest.
If you haven't seen anyone running naked yet, it means the rally hasn't been ignited and we're still in the bottom construction phase. The current question is simply: keep your eyes wide open and spot those preparing to, or already, running naked first.
Actually, the market is simple: when someone runs naked globally, it's a major rally; when someone runs naked nationally, it's a medium rally; when someone runs naked city-wide, it's a minor rally; when someone can only run naked at home, at most flashing at the window a couple of times, that's a rebound. The rally correlates with the initial intensity of the streaking. When streaking spreads, the rally begins to unfold. When everyone is accustomed to streaking, the rally dies from climax.
Today's market action was merely attempting to slam a trap first and humiliate those who fantasized about three consecutive up days before the holiday. Of course, two consecutive up days still have hope — this ID doesn't reject the number two. The premise is: first pray that nothing unwelcome happens over the weekend; second, that the PetroChina release doesn't get too extreme.
Now, the bigger question is: with such a high stamp duty, if we push a rally up, is it really just so Ping An can smoothly siphon off 100 billion? Thinking about this, this ID has absolutely no interest in charging ahead as vanguard. Warriors of the free world, you charge — this ID will follow behind, and the moment you look weak, I'll fire a salute to see you off.
Rebounds will come, bread will come. But when you're about to be brutally mocked at the Spring Festival Gala and legally robbed of hundreds of billions by the likes of Ping An, and on top of that must continue accepting the reward of the world's highest stamp duty — under these conditions, who's still willing to be cannon fodder and launch a globally-streaking-level rally?
This year, let's go streaking in Tieling, or maybe Baoding. Your choice, everyone.
This weekend, why not practice at home first?
Signing off, see you.
缠中说禅 2008/2/1 15:19:51
Cheary is studying.