Market Analysis: If You Didn't Understand Today, Please Study Hard
2007/7/2 15:32:58
Today's price action was practically a textbook example — if you can't even understand this, you seriously need to go back and study. In the chart below, the minor top divergence within the 110-point line segment, and the minor bottom divergence at point 111, are both extremely standard. For point 111, if you can't see it, look at the area comparison between the two green bar clusters indicated by the red arrows in the MACD. If anyone still asks why the earlier ones don't qualify, you absolutely must thoroughly study the lessons on fractals, strokes, and line segments, as well as Lesson 63. At the red arrow position in the chart, while the 1-minute chart can still show it, please go study carefully why that constitutes one stroke — how the bottom fractal is formed — all of this has the most rigorous standards.
As for the market trend, there's nothing much to say — it's just oscillation. This is paradise for this ID's theory. If in a one-directional trend even a fool can make money, then in this kind of market, it's not something ordinary people can handle. If you can handle it, you've got a good blood-extraction machine — practice well and you'll have some decent capability. As for the specific hub analysis, this ID doesn't plan to go into it. With such clear line segment divisions, following the recursive definition, the answer isn't hard to obtain. If you won't even practice this, then it's impossible to learn. The major technical levels are no different from what was said on Friday. The only addition needed is point 107 in the chart — if it can hold, at least this hub oscillation is guaranteed. Above, 3919 is still the first resistance — now it's essentially become a neckline position. Further above is the 5-week MA position. On the big picture, today's action is a rebound supported by the 5-month MA. This line is the most important — whether it will be a triangle or flat-type correction depends on whether the 5-month MA is effectively broken.
Note: once again emphasized — in this kind of oscillating market, if you have no solid foundation, it's best to just observe. Half position, empty position — doesn't matter. If you don't have the skill, you don't have to play this game. Of course, if you want to learn and practice, you can use a small amount of capital. For beginners, the principle for oscillations is: better to sell too early than too late. If you have money, are you really afraid you can't buy stocks?
Regarding individual stocks, everyone knows this ID's stocks. Except for two or three newly entered ones, this ID is currently in the phase of maintaining zero cost while accumulating shares. The bigger the oscillation amplitude, the happier. Those without strong skills or a strong heart — absolutely do not participate. Find some stocks with better temperaments. This ID's stocks generally have bad temperaments.
Signing off first — afternoon and evening are busy, still need to rush back to Beijing. See you tomorrow.
