A Decline Worth Applauding

2007/9/7 15:29:09

Today's reserve requirement ratio hike isn't a big deal in itself, but Elder Shang's risk warning shouldn't be taken lightly. Recently the newspapers have been running risk warnings every day, but Elder Shang is someone who strongly advocates market-based regulation. If it weren't for this elder, the May 30th incident would probably have long since been forgotten, because there would have already been something newer for everyone to spit at.

Therefore, one should be decent. When someone is bearing the burden, you can't be too ungracious about it. Otherwise, if good people can't do their job, market regulation fails, then it becomes policy regulation—but for some ungracious garbage, they'll still spew filth regardless.

When the market self-regulates, the adjustment is limited and system-controllable. When the market doesn't self-regulate and you need artificial rain, then only heaven knows what will happen.

Sometimes, when the market cooperates a little, the forces advocating market regulation can exert greater influence. This is so obvious, but in the face of profit, many people lose their heads. So, some things are better left to fate—better to not calculate at all.

Technically, if a somewhat larger-level oscillation emerges here, treat it as hub oscillation. For those who can't read the charts, the mid-term reference is the 5-week moving average. Since the rise from 3,600 points, this line has never been touched—it's the simplest litmus test for whether this phase of the rally has ended and entered a larger correction.

On individual stocks, stocks like 000938 that held above the May 30th highs and continued to strengthen—this technical pattern will be replicated in other stocks. This ID has commented on this stock many times before. The only thing to add is that in an era where Tsinghua far outshines Peking University, this ID can only very economically suck up to Tsinghua. If you won't even suck up to Tsinghua, you really don't want to stay in China, do you?

Stocks this ID has mentioned still require following through to the end. 600375—I mentioned it at 7 yuan, and that's when this ID got in too. The reason was already told to everyone: it has new products with costs much lower than Sany's. This ID sent people for on-site investigation; the person sent back reported that they even personally touched the newly imported steel plates. But this company—this ID doesn't have great confidence in it, specifically because of its related-party transaction issues. Moreover, importantly, one of its huge affiliated companies actually took over what 600375 had developed, due to more private interests embedded within. The new thing might ultimately be listed directly under a separate entity to maximize private gains. If this were properly placed into 375 as it should be, 375 should have already been above 50 yuan. But with these shenanigans, this kind of company—this ID's confidence really isn't there.

Enough said. Every weekend, this ID gets nauseated by stocks.

Signing off. Everyone go do whatever you should be doing, and forget about stocks.

Goodbye.