4778 Points: The Bull-Bear Battle Line

2008/1/24 15:17:30

Today, as mentioned yesterday, the market encountered resistance and turbulence at the 4778-point level. Technically, 4778 is extremely important—it was the previous low, and whether the market can break above and hold there determines the nature of this decline and its ultimate form of completion. To put it bluntly, it's a bull-bear battle line.

On the daily chart, this morning's decline actually serves to ultimately form a daily bottom fractal, which constitutes a buy point. But the subsequent issue is more critical: whether this bottom fractal can extend into a stroke, or whether it will be strangled by the 5-day moving average. Since the 5-day MA has already dropped to around 4815, and by tomorrow it should be near the 4778 area, this question becomes equivalent to the one above—it still comes down to whether 4778 can be broken and held.

Technically, if you treated the action around 1:40 PM today as a so-called 1-minute third-type buy point, then you need to review at least two knowledge points. First, the handling of the second type of situation in line segment classification. Second, when a line segment extends beyond 9 segments, you need to consider not a 1-minute hub but a 5-minute hub, where the sub-level becomes the 1-minute trend type.

This ID's theory is pure mathematics—one is one, two is two, with not the slightest room for ambiguity. Let me pose another question: how many line segments did today's action actually produce? Choose: A. 2; B. 3; C. 4; D. 5; E. None of the above.

If you can't figure it out, go back and study.

As for individual stocks, you can see for yourselves how this ID's stocks performed—many have already hit new highs, while the market has fallen nearly 1000 points from 5522. Of course, this kind of movement can't completely decouple from the broader market. If the market fails to hold 4778 and launches a new round of decline, the risk of chasing highs is enormous.

This ID emphasizes once again: this ID does not need anyone to carry the sedan chair. If this ID needed you as sedan bearers, I wouldn't have told everyone to buy 600737 at 8 yuan. Let me reiterate—for stocks like 600737, if you're scared, just take out your principal and keep the zero-cost shares for continued play. If you didn't buy, never mind.

There are N to the Nth power stocks in this world. You don't need to buy this ID's stocks, and this ID doesn't like too many people buying them either, because when this ID goes in for the kill, there's no regard for friend or foe. To this ID, stocks are just chips, just paper. This ID kills paper—who's behind it is of no interest.

Coming here, you must learn to stand on your own two feet. The day you can beat this ID at the market game, this ID would be overjoyed. Unfortunately, that person doesn't exist yet. How boring.

Signing off for now. Goodbye.