Top Fractal Confirmed, Power Unleashed

2007/12/14 0:49:00

Just got home, drank quite a bit, but I'm alright. Looking at the time, it's already tomorrow. I'd planned to talk about stocks in the morning, but riding this buzz, let me say my piece now.

Yesterday morning the bounce couldn't get above the 5-day moving average, confirming the top fractal. Of course, a confirmed top fractal doesn't necessarily produce a long bearish candle, but it certainly doesn't preclude one either. Ten short bearish candles versus one long bearish candle — as long as no bottom fractal appears, they all ultimately point to a downward stroke process. And from the standpoint of this ID's theory, one only cares about the outcome of buy and sell points, not the process.

When a top fractal breaks below the 5-day moving average, it is the final stage of "not-yet-ill → about-to-be-ill → already-ill." Since it's already ill, one can only wait for the market to recover, and the daily-level sign of recovery is a bottom fractal. From the perspective of hub oscillation, as I said yesterday, the hub oscillation at 5010 points has expanded into a larger 5-minute hub oscillation. Today's decline has not yet shaken out the third sell point of this hub oscillation, so as long as this sell point doesn't appear, everything remains within the basic hub oscillation. Of course, if it does appear, then the probability of the market breaking below the previous low becomes extremely high.

From the perspective of hub oscillation, the third sell point is a classic case of "already ill." The first-tier master acts at the "not-yet-ill" stage, the second-tier master acts at the "about-to-be-ill" stage — waiting until "already ill" is indeed a bit less than masterful.

Of course, for those who can't keep up operationally, whose mindset can't follow, or whose hands aren't ruthless enough during such rebounds, the safest option is undoubtedly the righteous, glorious, and great "little stool" — sitting on the sidelines. Sometimes, resting for a few months is not a bad thing. This has been emphasized repeatedly.

However, from the weekly perspective, the potential formation of a weekly bottom fractal has not yet been violated, and next week the 5-week moving average will continue to move down. Once it's reclaimed, the market will continue its rebound. So today's movement is critical — as long as today doesn't break below 4778 points, the weekly picture at least isn't too bad. As I said last Friday, this week's task is constructing a weekly bottom fractal. Whether it succeeds depends on today.

On individual stocks, I'll continue discussing those mentioned before. Note: it has been repeatedly emphasized that discussing these stocks is not telling everyone to buy now, because whether to buy or not hinges on whether there's a buy point, and what level of buy point. Buying without a buy point is pathological. This ID's commentary on these stocks is from a long-term perspective only — don't get confused.

600139: This stock is called "Geometric Ratio" — many people probably still remember the farce. You can call it a monster stock, but every monster has its reasons, and the key is whether you're a good enough hunter. In this world, it's hard to find a stock that surges quickly from 9+ to 24 and then quickly drops back to 12 — that's actually the best kind of stock. Why? The oscillation is big enough, the spread is ruthless enough. Without this skill, please stay away.

600569: This is another stock that has tormented quite a few people. The biggest catalyst is still the whole-listing and acquisition story. The stock's character is quite mischievous — without skill, stay away.

000998: The problem with agricultural stocks is that the concept is good but earnings can't keep up, so for now it can only churn in a large box range, waiting for a major earnings or catalyst breakthrough. From a long-term perspective, it will inevitably have its bull run.

000416: This is a classic case of overexcitement. It was at 3 yuan when first mentioned, rushed to 18 yuan in less than 5 months, then came the painful correction. Short term, the key is the earnings hurdle. Long term, it will inevitably be churned repeatedly. Why? The stock's character is there, the personality of the people churning inside is there. Of course, a major breakout requires waiting for the right moment.

000778: Look at the shareholder background, and you'll know this stock was born to be churned. After a 4x rise, it's only natural to rest. Medium-term, it's large box-range consolidation, awaiting a breakout catalyst.

000099: Like 000778 — a special major shareholder, a special industry, bound to be churned. Medium-term, also large box-range consolidation, awaiting a breakout catalyst.

600432: From under 20 yuan to 132 — in just nine months. A rest is well-deserved. Medium-to-long-term, of course no problem — as long as the global non-ferrous metals rally doesn't collapse, there's nothing to discuss.

600234: This ID likes stocks with fun ticker numbers. Having 600432, one naturally needs 600234, and together they form an arithmetic sequence — a nice contrast with the earlier "Geometric Ratio." For ST stocks, those without skill shouldn't touch them carelessly. The play here is a fundamental transformation — there are uncertain factors, and that's precisely where the great speculative value lies.

Good night, see you.