41 vs. 1: This ID Has Lost Interest in the Secondary Market
2007/8/13 21:26:14
Last Friday, this ID was chattering away while having someone read quotes and buy stocks. A stock priced at 41 yuan—this ID bought it up to nearly 43 yuan, getting increasingly frustrated with each purchase. Look at it—the insiders got in at a cost of 1 yuan. That kind of PE game, this ID is playing too, so why should this ID have to buy at 40-something times the price?
This afternoon, during a negotiation about PE, this ID has decided to shift fully to PE warfare. Of course, the retreat is strategic. The principles this ID has decided on are: First, this ID will no longer buy any stocks on the secondary market. Second, for any stocks where cost is not yet zero, this ID will gradually sell down to zero cost. For stocks already at zero cost, this ID will hold them until the end of the great bull market, and when free, can continue playing the game of dumping first then buying back to increase positions.
This ID has already formed a basic judgment: whoever controls the PE market will control the destiny of China's capital market. In PE, beyond Pre-IPO activities, things like buyout funds still haven't seen major development in China. Of course, Pre-IPO activities certainly can't be abandoned, but buyout fund activities can also be gradually developed. In China, the one currently doing this kind of thing best is a returned overseas Chinese man who's fathered five children.
Of course, completely abandoning the secondary market won't work, so existing base areas must be retained. But if one doesn't make a big push into PE now, then one will forever be sewing wedding dresses for others. In the previous period, all that hustling by this ID has already paved the road for this.
Of course, in the secondary market, PE-like opportunities also arise—when major fluctuations bring certain large restructuring stocks to sufficiently attractive levels, those are also good entry opportunities. In the era of full circulation, how to use a buyout fund model to make a killing in the secondary market is also an interesting venture. But discussing this now is a bit pointless. Right now, gold is scattered all over the ground outside the secondary market. This ID's brain hasn't been waterlogged—there's no spare leisure to bother with this secondary market anymore.
The above are all heartfelt words and this ID's decisions. Of course, PE work means having to wine and dine constantly, which is what this ID likes least. Naturally, some tasks can be delegated to others. As long as this ID has time, the daily market commentary will continue. After all, for retail investors, the secondary market is the only place accessible on a large scale, and original capital accumulation can only happen here. The road ahead is long—if this ID can help everyone out a bit, consider it a good karmic connection.
This ID will do the best possible—may those with affinity receive it.
Appendix:
Please don't make wild speculations. This ID's judgment of a 20+ year great bull market in the secondary market has never changed. After Spring Festival this ID said that before breaking through GDP, the first phase of the market led by component stocks would definitely not end. At that time, who else could state this so clearly? And who else could clearly divide a 20-year great bull market into phases? This ID's view has never changed.
Without a great bull market, PE is also futile. It's just that right now in the secondary market, compared to PE, the profits are too thin. Finding stocks that can multiply dozens of times in 3 years is becoming increasingly difficult, but in PE, it's not hard at all.
Capital flows toward higher profits—this ID is no exception.
This ID has no implicit message about the broader market. Short-term market trends—just look at the segment charts or even the 5-day moving average and you can judge them. There's no need for anyone to make predictions.
Tired. It's 10 o'clock. Signing off, goodbye.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/8/13 21:56:16
[Anonymous] 深潜江湖 Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-13 21:40:22
Hello Teacher.
There's currently some debate about why today's 32–33 doesn't constitute three segments—after all, it meets the definition where bottom fractals are established.
Hope the teacher can explain.
Also, I find the combination of levels before looking for nesting particularly confusing. Hope the teacher can discuss this.
I wrote it wrong earlier, my apologies.
==
Please first figure out where the bottom fractal starts counting from and where it ends. In this kind of situation where the preceding part is a decline and the corresponding second part is a rise, the characteristic sequence looks at the downward direction. This third downward element has already broken below the bottom of the original first segment—how can it belong to the characteristic sequence of the second segment?
The bottom or top of a characteristic sequence must first of all entirely belong to that characteristic sequence—this is the prerequisite. In fact, if the second characteristic sequence doesn't have three elements, there's simply no possibility of the second scenario of segment division occurring.
缠中说禅 2007/8/13 22:03:06
Please don't make wild speculations. This ID's judgment of a 20+ year great bull market in the secondary market has never changed. After Spring Festival this ID said that before breaking through GDP, the first phase of the market led by component stocks would definitely not end. At that time, who else could state this so clearly? And who else could clearly divide a 20-year great bull market into phases? This ID's view has never changed.
Without a great bull market, PE is also futile. It's just that right now in the secondary market, compared to PE, the profits are too thin. Finding stocks that can multiply dozens of times in 3 years is becoming increasingly difficult, but in PE, it's not hard at all.
Capital flows toward higher profits—this ID is no exception.
This ID has no implicit message about the broader market. Short-term market trends—just look at the segment charts or even the 5-day moving average and you can judge them. There's no need for anyone to make predictions.
Tired. It's 10 o'clock. Signing off, goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/8/13 22:05:04
[Anonymous] Sina User Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-13 21:53:15
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-13 21:49:35
Just experimented a bit and found there's still no way to get the Politics & Economics section to display. This ID's computer skills are at this level—those looking for economics articles will just have to search through all articles.
-------
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán blogger
You could try creating a new category, then add the economics articles to it. If this new category displays normally, then you can delete the old one and use the new one instead.
Or you could try renaming the category and see what happens.
--
Thanks. There are too many economics articles—going through them one by one will have to wait until there's really nothing else to do.
Signing off, goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/8/13 22:05:56
Please don't make wild speculations. This ID's judgment of a 20+ year great bull market in the secondary market has never changed. After Spring Festival this ID said that before breaking through GDP, the first phase of the market led by component stocks would definitely not end. At that time, who else could state this so clearly? And who else could clearly divide a 20-year great bull market into phases? This ID's view has never changed.
Without a great bull market, PE is also futile. It's just that right now in the secondary market, compared to PE, the profits are too thin. Finding stocks that can multiply dozens of times in 3 years is becoming increasingly difficult, but in PE, it's not hard at all.
Capital flows toward higher profits—this ID is no exception.
This ID has no implicit message about the broader market. Short-term market trends—just look at the segment charts or even the 5-day moving average and you can judge them. There's no need for anyone to make predictions.
Tired. It's 10 o'clock. Signing off, goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/8/13 22:51:54
Does the blog owner really have to do everything personally? Math, the Analerta, music, stocks surely take up a lot of time already—you're going to handle PE personally too? What kind of person is the owner of this blog?
缠中说禅 2007/8/13 21:49:35
Just experimented a bit and found there's still no way to get the Politics & Economics section to display. This ID's computer skills are at this level—those looking for economics articles will just have to search through all articles.