You May Not Believe in Mooncakes, But You Must Believe in the Moon
2007/9/26 15:56:37
How powerful the moon is — you've all witnessed it these past two days. You may not believe in mooncakes, but you must believe in the moon. Why? Even the earth's tides must plagiarize the moon — is that flimsy stock market more tidal than the tides? Yesterday it was already made clear: "If not for someone propping things up for new stock listings, today's decline would have been far more than this." Yesterday's decline wasn't enough, so today it continued — it's that simple.
This morning's upward push — first, it didn't break through yesterday's third sell point; second, it instead formed the upward thrust of the third K-line in a standard top fractal — regardless of whether you believe in this ID's theory, what followed played out like a textbook. The current trend is extremely simple: a 1-minute trend is currently departing from the preceding 5-minute hub. When this 1-minute trend can complete depends on subsequent price action. And what matters most comes after completion — the pullback. Whether it can form a third sell point — that is the key to near-term price action. If it forms, then these past two days can at most be considered Tian Liang's 1-meter springboard. Whether the performance ahead involves the 3-meter or 10-meter platform, for the audience, it actually doesn't matter anymore.
On individual stocks, today Shuijingfang finally performed as Shuijingfang should. Look at this stock — this is what "churning" means. For almost a year, it just ground away here. Why? Because there are N groups of people inside it, all bullish, so they just churn against each other. Is this time for real or not? Heaven knows. Why? Because whenever someone makes the first move, all N parties start churning again. Actually, this game is quite fun — it just wastes a stock with such excellent fundamentals.
However, good stocks ultimately shine. Take 000999 — from when this ID first discussed it here to now, it's been nearly 10 months. Starting at 6 yuan grabbing shares, then the battle with traitor funds around 12 yuan, then another crowd of bored people piling in at 15 yuan, messing around left and right. In between, rumors flew everywhere. And the result? Look at how much the new major shareholder paid to get in. Someone who paid that much — what big plans they have — is there really any question? This ID has repeatedly said to hold through thick and thin, but when it actually starts happening, many people will probably get confused by market fluctuations.
Every stock is a story — never-ending ones. After completing one stock, you become a person with stories.
A reminder once again: regarding those two stocks mentioned yesterday, if the market has major problems, they'll adjust too. But due to their potentially transformative fundamentals, if the market experiences big volatility, it will provide a good entry opportunity. The stocks this ID mentions are always from a medium-to-long-term perspective — there's plenty of time for you to enter. The key is watching for buy and sell points.
I can answer questions until 4:30 today.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:04:35
[Anonymous] 小小 Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 16:01:36
Sister's 432 has broken 100!
Sister, when you kick the sedan chair, make sure not to kick too hard.
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Very good — still holding it now. From 20 yuan to now, I imagine those still holding are few and far between.
This stock still has medium-to-long-term potential. Of course, short-term, if the market gets particularly nasty, there will be an impact.
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:07:35
Green Phantom Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 16:04:22
Hello Chán~
I can understand hubs when I look at them, but applying them in practice feels totally off the mark. Sigh!!
Also, sometimes when it clearly looks like divergence, I buy but it keeps falling. Why?
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Please first confirm that your "clearly" is actually correct. In fact, many cases of so-called obvious divergence are not divergence at all. Many people haven't even figured out hubs, trend types, and levels, and they jump straight to analyzing divergence — how could that possibly be accurate?
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:10:39
[Anonymous] Sina User Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 16:07:25
Chán: When looking at higher-level K-line charts, should I carry over the segmentation from lower-level charts, or re-segment strokes and find line segments fresh? Sometimes these two approaches produce different segmentations.
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Why should they be consistent? On lower-level charts, use hubs and trend types. On higher-level charts, use fractals and line segments. It's like having two useful sets of tools to analyze the same price action — that's a tremendous advantage.
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:12:09
[Anonymous] Sina User Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 16:08:04
Teacher LZ, does 000822 have foreign capital injection?
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This ID is not a listed company and cannot release any information — please understand.
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:14:21
[Anonymous] 空言 Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 16:10:47
Believing in the moon — does that mean we should clear all positions before each lunar 15th?
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It's not that mechanical at all. But if the moon also brings along a divergence, a fractal, or something similar, then of course it becomes effective.
The moon only borrows the sun's radiance. What this ID's theory frameworks — that is the sun.
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:17:07
[Anonymous] Sina User Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 16:14:11
Would it be safer to buy expensive stocks, especially those over 100 yuan?
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One can only say that for expensive stocks, retail investors have already left, making it lighter to hold up the barbell. But in a particularly large correction, nobody will stubbornly hold — unless their brain is waterlogged.
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:18:17
[Anonymous] 50年以前 Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 16:15:47
Hello teacher. I have doubts about today's line segment division. The upward segment from 1346 didn't break the last stroke of the downward segment 130, so I feel it shouldn't be drawn as a separate segment. In other words, segment 131 should be at the position marked as 133 on the chart. Please clarify.
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This is the second type.
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:20:07
[Anonymous] Sina User Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 16:16:14
Don't know if the annual line for 636 will provide support. Held for three months already.
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This kind of thinking is harmful — don't think about where "support levels" are. Look at the chart pattern itself. Moreover, didn't this ID say early on — if it can't even get above the half-year line, retail investors have no need to participate? But this stock is definitely a good one medium-to-long-term. However, recently, like Shuijingfang before, it's entered a bizarre loop.
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:22:40
[Anonymous] Sina User Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 16:19:31
May I ask Master Chan, what's your view on CCB's pricing? Thank you.
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This ID only looks at price action, not pricing.
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:25:55
[Anonymous] Night雨 Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 16:07:59
San Jiu's price action is a live textbook. Its movement from last year to this year is an unfinished masterpiece, alongside 000858's movement from early 2006 to now — both are works of mainstream capital. They serve as reference for each other.
This kind of announcement was long anticipated by the main forces. How many people, after selling in recent days, would have bought back in yesterday? Most would think, "Let me confirm today first, then buy" — but the opportunity is gone forever. So what we can do is hold and add positions on dips.
Honestly, I bought San Jiu at 10 yuan before the new year, but with a very small position. I added at the 530 low. During the four months of consolidation, whenever there was money to be made, I added a bit more. This time I added at 18 yuan, and added again at 21.5 yuan. Now my position is 10 times my initial investment. I consider this a successful operation after accompanying it all the way — it greatly improved my willpower, my conviction in holding, and my technical ability.
Thank you, sister. The best Mid-Autumn Festival gift to me. Could you give my operation on 999 a big red flower?
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Of course — big red flower. Successfully operating one stock is the best discipline for your own mindset.
Indeed, every stock's story is largely the same, just as every story, at its root, is merely a story — utterly ordinary.
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:29:45
Nian Nian Yi Bian San Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 16:25:28
May I ask Master Chan: the steel sector has already corrected quite heavily these past few days. If the market plunges again, can it hold up on its own?
Hoping for a response! Thank you!!
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This ID has no interest in questions involving predictions. You should cultivate this habit: your gaze should only fall on stocks that have buy points.
Stocks are gigolos — if they want to be favored, it's simple: flirt using buy points.
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:31:30
Sorry, there's a meeting about PE coming up shortly. Must go.
See you.
缠中说禅 2007/9/26 16:02:33
[Anonymous] Moon Child Delete all comments by this person
2007-09-26 15:59:37
*Moon Child(199306010) 15:11:31
Blessings of Chán upon the world! I bought 600319 today! Following Chán's words!
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It's not about following this ID's words — you must look at the chart. If there's a sell point, sell first; if a buy point appears, buy back. That's how you bring down your cost.
Note: entering stocks now is different from at 1000 points. If you can manage dynamically, you should do so — otherwise, if the market has a big swing, nobody can guarantee someone will hold up the barbell for you.