Racing Against the Big Stick

2007/10/8 15:35:47

Today's movement was entirely within expectations. Before the holiday, from a purely technical perspective, a clear analysis of the post-holiday trend had already been made: first complete the line segment starting from 139, then complete the upward-type movement of the line segment starting from 137, and then form a 1-minute hub. The movement has proceeded so normally according to the rhythm defined by this ID's theory that there's really nothing more to say. (No need to post charts today—there are no new markings.)

The only thing worth mentioning is that the market's movement was particularly strong. So when today's session closed, the line segment starting from 139 had still not been fully confirmed as complete. Of course, under normal circumstances, as long as the market opens below 5685 tomorrow, the 140 line segment marker can be placed. Then, under normal conditions, the subsequent 1-minute hub will basically form around the current range, so if the market experiences large fluctuations in the coming days, there's absolutely no reason to be alarmed.

On the policy front, after that important meeting, regulatory intensity will inevitably increase—this is beyond doubt. Therefore, starting this weekend, we enter a dangerous period for policy actions. As for when this will be triggered, it depends on how funds perform in the coming days. For the money side, it's now a race against time.

As for the several gaps below, they merely preserve momentum for future declines. This ID has already stated clearly: without 1,000 points of pullback space, the market has no value in declining. Pulling back the space for a pullback—that is the key to the current movement.

From a medium-term perspective, as long as the market's pullback doesn't break 4335, the upward shift of the medium-term hub is still maintained. So the current market rally, from a medium-term angle, is about making sure that even in the worst-case scenario, the subsequent pullback doesn't touch 4335. From this perspective, the current rally is indeed still insufficient, but whether policy will leave enough time for this space to be created—that's something no one can guarantee.

From a medium-to-long-term perspective, December marks the 30th month since June 2005, so starting from October, we enter a standard time-pressure zone. If policy-driven resonance occurs at this time, its destructive power cannot be underestimated.

In short, one sentence: patiently wait for a sell point of a relatively large level to appear. Before this weekend, if you're worried about policy pressure, you should adjust your positions. The medium-term top under the current movement cannot be something the market produces on its own—it will definitely have the shadow of policy behind it.

The only thing that's not quite cooperating right now is that the upward thrust is still too weak, and the space for a pullback hasn't been fully opened up. Racing against policy to lift the space up—that is currently the most important task for the money.

Regarding individual stocks, after the index heavyweights lead the charge, there will be sector rotation. If you have full confidence in your technical skills, you can follow this rotation. But note: absolutely do not chase highs. This ID dislikes answering questions like "Can I still buy 600078 tomorrow?"—don't only start paying attention to a stock after it's already risen; that's a terrible habit. This ID even specifically analyzed the movement of that stock during its pullback as homework for everyone. How can a buy point form during an uptrend?

Stock trading is actually very simple—it's just a matter of rhythm. But many people, including many so-called experts, like to tell people to chase stocks after breakouts. Such people will forever remain retail traders.

After the holiday, there are many things to deal with, and this weekend I need to go meet someone somewhere, so I need to prepare some things. Sorry, I can't answer questions.

Signing off, see you later.