No Breaking, No Building — Rebound in Prospect

2008/9/3 15:14:03

The market has finally broken through the bottom. This means the monthly bottom fractal can form at the earliest in October. However, from a short-term perspective, the rebound now actually has a technical foundation. Of course, this type of rebound is purely technical in nature — a sprint. Whether you can participate depends on your own skill.

2329 points is the key short-term resistance. Failure to reclaim it means continued weakness. From a purely psychological standpoint, if there's a sharp, rapid decline before the rebound, then the subsequent rebound will have more operational significance. But currently, the momentum for chasing sells after the bottom break is insufficient. The market has entered a completely numb state. At times like this, there's no great stability in the market — ultimately it all comes down to grinding.

There's really not much to say about the market. This ID hasn't been in great shape these past few days, mainly because of the battle with sciatica — for now it's an evenly matched contest, no winner yet. The hardest thing to endure in life is probably this kind of state: first, you don't know when the balance will break, yet you can't let your guard down — otherwise the balance immediately collapses. So you can only tough it out. It's like the market right now — just toughing it out. Whoever can ultimately tough it through wins.

But in the act of toughing it out, victory is merely a consolation. The only possibility is to appreciate and savor this state of torment. From an aesthetic perspective, the state of endurance is actually quite fascinating — that silent struggle of life against life, not knowing the outcome, only able to press forward, no chance to retreat. This state has produced countless miracles in human history. Think of Beethoven — decades of progressively severe deafness, an endless grind with no horizon — which ultimately produced the greatest works. True works of art are the juice wrung from life's grinding, which is why they are so purely beautiful.

This ID has no choice but to keep grinding on — sciatica, cancer, and so on — breaking through them one by one. What a game of life.